Armored personnel carriers and trucks rehearse for Victory Day on Tverskaya near the Kremlin, April 29, 2008
For most international observers, the big story of Victory Day 2008 in Moscow is the revival of the Soviet tradition of parading heavy military equipment through Red Square. For most Russians, however, today is a well deserved day off, and it will be the most beloved holiday on the national calendar before Christmas and New Years.
Today, hundreds of thousands in Russia will be participating in public events across the country to thank surviving World War II veterans for their service, and to remember the millions who died to rid the world of Nazism.
Click on the extended post to read more thoughts and watch more YouTube videos about Victory Day.
Dmitry Medvedev during the inauguration ceremony in Kremlin
President Medvedev. Yesterday Dmitriy Medvedev was sworn in as President (watch the video and the photos). His speech, almost all domestically focussed, hit the themes of economic modernisation, social security and “legal nihilism”. The tacit message was, as it has been, that continuity was assured. He did use the phrase “our great Russia” – it will be amusing to see how many news outlets focus their attention on that.
Prime Minister Putin. Putin was confirmed today by the Duma (the Communists voted against him) and his speech too focussed on domestic matters: increasing the capital – in all senses of the word – of Russia. It is clear that Medvedev’s and Putin’s program is to concentrate on what might be termed qualitative improvements in Russia’s domestic situation. Of course, in this sinful world, external events arise ex nihilo and dominate the conversation.
Putin's Last Day As President... And First Day as Prime Minister
Charles Ganske
Russian President Vladimir V. Putin's farewell ceremony coincided with the Victory Day holiday Russia
Click on the extended post to watch another Russia Today TV video about the end of Mr. Putin's pivotal...and controversial...eight year term in the Russian presidency.
Interview with Henry Kissinger on the Future of U.S.-Russia Relations
Charles Ganske
As U.S. Secretary of State from 1973 to 1977, Henry Kissinger negotiated arms control agreements between the USA and USSR and the establishment of diplomatic relations between America and mainland Communist China. In this video the elderly diplomat sits down for a twenty minute interview with Russia Today TV and describes his vision of U.S.-Russia relations in the 21st century.
Russian Federation Weekly Situation Report May 2, 2008
Patrick Armstrong
The transition. What seems to be happening is that governing powers – formerly almost all of which were concentrated in the Presidential Administration these past several years – are being reassigned. A draft law has appeared that will delegate some of the central government’s responsibilities to lower levels of government and some powers are apparently being shifted from the Presidential Administration to the government.
Meanwhile there are personnel changes that look like some of Putin’s people moving over the government side to be ready for his arrival. I reiterate that it is still too early to know what The Plan is, but all this seems to support the hypothesis that Putin (and company) are setting up a certain division of powers between the Presidential Administration and the government. If (and this is a big if) this works in practice, it would be a good step: separation of powers is one of the secrets of successful governments.
Peak Oil? Or High Taxes?. Two weeks ago I quoted a Russian oil executive saying that Russian production had peaked; this week the CEO of Gazprom Neft says that he expects Russian production to continue to increase until the middle of the century (assuming that the industry gets the tax structure he thinks it ought to have).
Russian Federation Weekly Situation Report April 24 2008
Patrick Armstrong
DEMOGRAPHICS. The demographic picture in Russia continues to improve: RosStat claims 273,700 births in January and February (up 12.8% over the previous year) and 368,200 deaths (up 4.1%). A bill to restrict abortion advertising has been proposed and a Duma deputy gave some numbers here: in 2006 there were one and a half million abortions (40.3 per 1000 women) in Russia, down from the two million in 2002 (54.2 per 1000 women). So, this statistical evidence suggests that the various pro-natalist programs are having an effect. We don’t know yet, of course, whether the programs actually are leading to more children, or just encouraging Russian women to have their babies sooner. New data coming in over the next few years will tell us.
INVESTIGATIVE COMMITTEE. More trouble. The head of the main investigative unit was fired; corruption being given as the reason. The usual rumors abound.
Currently I am in Almaty, Kazakhstan at the Eurasian Media Forum 2008. Today, I participated in the panel addressing the perceptions of the the Western media in its coverage of Russia, and the possibility of the return of the Cold War. The Eurasian Media Forum has gathered 600 distinguished participants, such as, President Nursultan Nazarbayev, his daughter Dr. Dariga Nazarbaeva, Mr. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Dr. Ariel Cohen of the Heritage Foundation, Mikhail Leontiev from "Odnako", Margarita Simonyan and Kevin Owen from Russia Today TV, multiple ambassadors, ministers, journalists, reporters and policy makers.
Please, view the extended post for the full agenda of the conference, and come back soon to view the photos of the conference and to read the new RRP report on the Stereotypes that Western media practices in its coverage of Russia. The report was prepared for the Forum and is available in print to those at the venue.
At the moment this post was published, the oil price, according to Bloomberg, was $114.85 per barrel. Russia has profited handsomely from higher world energy prices, but has also experienced inflation as a result of the flood of petrodollars
Putinology Outgoing Russian President Vladimir Putin is now Chairman of United Russia, the political structure (I’m not sure I would call it a real “party”) that dominates Russia. But, oddly enough, he hasn’t formally become a member. While we still can’t be sure what Putin's Plan is, this would seem to point in the direction of my fifth hypothesis. He also apparently said he would become the Prime Minister of Russia if (!) asked. The next five or eight months will tell us more about what he has in mind.
Peak Oil?. The Financial Times quotes a vice president of LUKoil as saying that Russian oil production has peaked this year. Maybe so, but the End of Oil has been predicted many times and historically, this has been a bad bet. I believe that the first prediction that the world would run out is over a century old and the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency famously predicted in the 1980s that Soviet production had peaked. Post Soviet Russia, separated from oil rich republics like Kazahkstan and Azerbaijan, briefly surpassed Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer in 2006.
Grigory Yavlinsky, the most prominent liberal in Russian politics (photo by AP)
Bush-Putin Meeting. Contrary to expectations, there appears to have been no breakthrough on the contentious issues of NATO expansion or missile defense at the Russian President's retreat in Sochi.
Hubris and the Limits of Russia's Revival. There is no doubt that Putin’s two terms have been remarkably successful: eight years ago, many observers were ready to write Russia off completely (examples here, here, and here) and Putin (with some help from higher world commodity prices) has managed to improve Russia's leading economic and social indicators. But nevertheless Russia is not really very strong: its GDP is still somewhere around the same as Canada’s (even with four or five times the population); poverty is widespread; Russian infrastructure is inadequate; corruption is omnipresent; its economic importance is principally as an energy supplier; its armed forces, though large, are not very competitive; it has no real allies; and most of its neighbours would prefer it to be located somewhere else.
NATO Expansion. Ukraine and Georgia were not offered a path to NATO membership - yet. People like to say that “Moscow has no veto on NATO membership”. This has always struck me as fatuous: who says that it has one? It also implies that NATO’s purpose is to do the opposite of what Moscow wants. Which is a rather foolish modus operandi. If NATO has any purpose, it is surely to ensure the security of its members. That security will not be increased by treating Russia as an enemy.
US-Russia Relations. The atmospherics continue to sound good; Putin’s press secretary is hinting that some sort of document will be signed when Bush and Putin (and the next Russian President, Dimitry Medvedev, apparently) meet in Sochi on Sunday, other sources say that some over-arching deal is in the works. We’ll see: the principals have said nice things before but their bureaucracies don’t seem to make things happen.
U.S.-RUSSIA RELATIONS The atmosphere seems to have improved in recent weeks. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Washington offered “confidence-building measures” which will apparently allow the Russians to inspect, in some manner not specified, American missile defense installations in Europe to assure Moscow that the system will not be directed against Russia. Bush and Putin are to meet next week in the Russian resort of Sochi after the NATO meeting and we will no doubt learn more then.
Telegraph: Ronald Reagan allegedly told his close aides on a number of occasions that he felt his opponent during the Cold War was a "closet believer." Mr Gorbachev, 77, was baptised into the Russian Orthodox Church and his parents were Christians.
US-Russian talks. The US foreign and defence ministers were in Moscow this week for talks mostly about the missiles and radars the US wants to put into Eastern Europe. There is much speculation about what happened but the atmosphere seems to have been good.
Yavlinskiy and Yabloko. Lots of rumours. First the arrest of Maksim Reznik in St Petersburg and other pressures against the party. Rumours I have heard:
1) the authorities are pushing the opposition around;
2) an attempt to lever Yabloko out of desirable real estate; and a distant third, a Yavlinskiy-authored attempt to crack down on dissidents in Yabloko. Yavlinskiy confirmed that he did meet with Putin and Medvedev but has said nothing about what was said other than that Putin promised to “look into” the Reznik case. Rumours are going around that Putin offered him a Deputy PM post in the next government. Meanwhile some in the Yabloko structure, already irritated at Yavlinskiy’s leadership, are calling on him to resign as leader. Stay tuned.
Eduard Limonov, Garry Kasparov's opposition partner
The plan unfolds. My current take on the possibilities for the future division of power in Russia is here but it’s still too early to place bets. But a few tiny indications of my fifth hypothesis are floating around at the moment. The political problem with Russia is that it is still a one-man band; a band which all true lovers of power earnestly seek to join. Putin himself has spoken about how United Russia “needs rejuvenation and reorganisation” and of its other deficiencies.
There has been some speculation lately that he and Medvedev are trying to create a “loyal opposition” (a phrase, by the way, that is perfectly meaningful in Westminster-system countries). He and Medvedev met with Duma leaders (including Yavlinskiy interestingly, who, while not in the Duma, is the leader of the oldest liberal party) and apparently spoke about this. There is a story that Putin tried to get Yavlinskiy to unite with the other liberals two elections ago but he wouldn’t. The opposition in Russia today is stunt groupings like Other Russia (and its NatBolfriends), the geriatric communist party or Zhirinovskiy’s personal vehicle.
I haven't been able to find English-language coverage of this, so all I've got is this Le Monde article. But it's worth mentioning because it looks to me like a potential sea change waiting to happen.
Two days ago, Russia's Foreign and Defense Ministers came to Paris for annual bi-lateral talks. The meeting resulted in a solid agreement from Russia to contribute 6-8 helicopters to the EUFOR Chad mission, as well as a potential accord with NATO to lift restrictions on logistical shipments bound for Afghanistan through Russian territory, which had been limited to non-military supplies.
Russia: Weekly News from Patrick Armstrong March 6, 2008
Yuri Mamchur
By Patrick Armstrong
Election. As everyone expected, Medvedev won handily receiving in the seventies on a turnout in the high sixties. There are the usual reports of ballot-stuffing and some improbable results from the North Caucasus (but nothing quite as bad as in the Duma elections). But, there can be no doubt that Medvedev represents the popular choice. And no surprise: after the ups and downs of the last couple of decades, Russians want peace and quiet and more money in their pockets. That is what Medvedev/Putin promise.
Continuity and stability. If there has been one theme of Putin’s and Medvedev’s recent speeches, it is “stay calm, nothing will change, the same team will be in place carrying out the same program”. There was a good deal of speculation about interest groups fighting “under the rug” over the succession but, thus far, it has been very smooth, thanks one assumes to Putin’s actions. We will see what the next steps in The Plan are.
Please tune into Russia Today television to watch Real Russia Project Director Yuri Mamchur’s live commentary on the Russian presidential elections. The coverage will be broadcast from Russia Today's New York studio on Sunday, March 2, at 6 pm EST (3 pm PST, 2 am, March 3 - Moscow time).
Presidential Debates Russian-Style: Get the Hell Out of the Studio! Scoundrel. I’ll Rip Your Head Off!
Yuri Mamchur
"Take him out, and shoot the scoundrel!"Better than Saturday NIght Live, and real...
Presidential candidate Vladimir Zhirinovsky about presidential candidate Andrey Bogdanov: “He’s a scoundrel. Look at his face! The guy’s sick! A typical schizoid! Any psychiatrist will tell you, the guy is a wacko…”
Vladimir Zhirinovsky to Andrey Bogdanov’s representative: “Get the hell out of the studio! Scoundrel. I’ll rip your head off. A professor, my foot! Idiot!”
Vladimir Zhirinovsky to his bodyguard: “What are you looking at? Take him out, and shoot the scoundrel in the hallway!”
Election debates are a new Russian tradition. Even though Dmitry Medvedev refused to participate in the debates, 47% of Russians still watched them with plenty of interest. One third of Russians find the debates to be a useless, but entertaining show. Russia Blog believes that debates are a necessary component of modern elections, and condemns the United Russia presidential hopeful Medvedev for rejecting the invitations to the debates.
Russian viewers were left with three debaters: Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov, famous leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia Vladimir Zhirinovsky, and the independent liberal candidate Andrey Bogdanov. Last weekend was definitely the high point of the debates. The most interesting episode took place when the debaters thought the cameras were off…
Russia: Weekly News from Patrick Armstrong February 28, 2008
Yuri Mamchur
By Patrick Armstrong
Presidential hopeful Dmitry Medvedev talking with Russian students about Internet freedom
ELECTION: I confidently predict that Medvedev will win big and that the OSCE & Co will condemn the election for unbalanced media coverage (something that apparently makes a vital difference in Russia but not in Georgia) and the CIS observers will OK it. Each group has already written its assessment.
MIDDLE CLASS: The big Russian insurance company RosGosStrakh has a report out saying that the Russian middle class has grown greatly. This entity it defines as a monthly income per family member between US$500 and US$3000. Rather a large spread and not particularly big numbers but a huge improvement on the pre-Putin state of affairs. It is quite simply facts like this, and not TV coverage or any of the things that so exercise Western commentators, that will lead Russians on Sunday to vote for more of the same.
Maybe it would help to know the name of the next president of the largest country in the world…
By Blake Hounshell
During Tuesday evening's debate, neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama seemed especially comfortable discussing Russia's heir apparent, Dmitry Medvedev. You could tell from the impish delight with which moderator Tim Russert sprang his surprise question -- "What can you tell me about the man who's going to be Mr. Putin's successor?" -- that a revealing exchange would follow.
First, Sen. Clinton correctly noted that "he's a hand-picked successor... who is obviously being installed by Putin." Then, she weighed in on the side of Russia analysts who view Medvedev as little more than Vladimir Putin's puppet, characterizing the former as having "very little independence" (some experts say the jury's still out on this). She concluded, "I have no doubt, as president, even though technically the meetings may be with the man who is labeled as president, the decisions will be made by Putin." (Again, an open question.)
Putin’s Iron Grip on Russia Suffocates Opponents NYT Article Brings Sharp Responses From Russians
Yuri Mamchur
Last weekend, The New York Times published another piece of amazing anti-Russian propaganda. “…the city’s children, too, were pressed into service. At schools, teachers gave them pamphlets promoting “Putin’s Plan”…” Those who have been to Russia in the last decade drop the newspaper either with laughter or with anger. One of the Real Russia Project's advisors explained his bewilderment upon reading the article:
“If you know where I am coming from, you know I see little merit in the article. I do wonder who paid Levy to write such a fanciful piece. It doesn't explain Putin's 85% approval rating in the polls - not the marks of a despot, nor of a person whose followers need to go to the lengths described in the article to shore up support. I have been to Nizhny Novgorod; it is one of the most dynamic regions of Russia. I am going to forward the article to two friends working in Nizhny that I spent time with in the past several months - one Russian, and one an expat who has lived there since 1994. I expect that their comments would be consistent with hundreds of Russians I talked with on four trips this past year - it is silly to think that people need to be cajoled into supporting Putin, or Medvedev, for that matter."
Unlike most Chinese citizens, Russians enjoy unfettered access to free media online, and their response to the NYT was overwhelming in the first hours after the publication appeared on the Russian internet (or .ru-net). Many Russians took advantage of their access to uncensored Internet, free media, and uncontrolled blogging platforms to express their personal opinions and to prove the NYT wrong. A few Russian commenters agreed with the article's viewpoint - but if anything, this should only prove the NYT to be even more wrong, as according to the slant of most Western reporting in the last several years, Russians are not supposed to have access to free media, nor be able to express their personal opinions under the “iron grip” of President Putin…
Yuri Mamchur discussed the upcoming Russian and American presidential elections on Russia Today TV today, February 25, at 12:55 pm PST (3:55 pm EST, 11:55 pm Moscow time). Visit the Russia Today website or follow the link below the picture to watch the interview.
Russian Federation and CIS Weekly News February 23, 2008
Yuri Mamchur
By Patrick Armstrong
Yevgeny Adamov was sentenced to 5½ years in prison
CORRUPTION AND STATE CORPORATIONS. Yevgeny Adamov, the atomic energy minister from 1998 to 2001, was convicted by a Moscow court of embezzlement during his term and sentenced to 5½ years. This raises the issue of corruption at the highest levels. In his final press conference Putin was asked which of Russia’s problems had he found the most wearying and difficult to resolve; “corruption”, he immediately answered. Very true: corruption, all the way from the oligarch acquisitions to rapacious traffic police, gums up everything in Russia. And some things have been done about it, although one can suspect that they are rather selective.
But I’m not sure that blurring the distinction between say, a 1st Deputy PM and the Chairman of the Board of one of the world’s largest companies is the right way to fight it, although I can see why such a thing might have been thought the only way to get a grip on the company. But, to me, the problem is: from where do these government officials on state boards receive the larger remuneration? In his press conference, Putin explained that he believed state corporations to be necessary “when there is a need for major long-term investments that private business is not yet ready to incur” but that the time would come when this was no longer the case and “we will gradually list these companies on the stock market and make them part of a market economy”. Something to watch in the transition is whether these state company positions remain with the individual or the office. The only indication so far is that Medvedev has said he will give up the Gazprom position.
The American presidential elections receive excellent coverage in the Russian media. While Russian journalists rarely offer commentary about the U.S. candidates, straight news reporting of the American presidential campaign is done in exhaustive, overwhelming detail. Not to be outdone, Russia Blog just completed its own humble, non-scientific poll. The goal? Determine which U.S. presidential candidate Russians prefer as the next occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
After presenting the question to nearly 50 Russians, the answer is clear: one hundred percent of our not-so-random sampling said Senator Barack Obama is their first choice. Huh? Up is down and down is up, at least if you believe conventional wisdom. Why would the Russians, stereotypically considered to be a racist and conservative nation, pick Senator Obama—the first viable black U.S. presidential candidate, and the one who many Americans agree breaks the traditional U.S. presidential mold on many levels?
Putin Slams Clinton, McCain Says that Hillary Clinton Has No Head
Charles Ganske
Vladimir Putin: Hillary Clinton Has No Head
"At a minimum, a head of state should have a head," - Vladimir Putin
During impromptu remarks in New Hampshire on January 6, 2008, former first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton joked that Russian President Vladimir Putin, as a former KGB agent, "by definition doesn't have a soul." Also using Mr. Putin as a punchline on the campaign trail, the current frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, Senator John McCain, has frequently said, "I looked into his eyes and saw three letters: a K, a G and a B."
Both Senators' jokes are references to a famous statement delivered by President Bush in 2001, after his first summit with President Putin in Slovenia, that "I looked the man in the eye...I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy. We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul."
Yesterday President Putin decided to hit back at his critics on the U.S. presidential campaign trail. During a four hour-long press conference at the Kremlin, Putin observed sarcastically that, "a state official must at least have brains."
Click on the extended post to read more news from the press conference.
The most exclusive club in Moscow, Dyagilev, burned down on February 7, 2008. No one died, but three people were hospitalized with serious injuries. One of the injured sustained serious burns, while two others suffered from smoke inhalation. Overall, the rescue effort lead by Moscow firefighters was impressive, as a facility filled with 1,500 drunk people was promptly evacuated at the break of dawn. The roof of the Diagilev club collapsed during the blaze. A rescue helicopter was scrambled to fight the fire with multiple ambulances and fire trucks also arriving on the scene. The fire, which spread over 15,000 square feet, was put out. Neighboring buildings were also evacuated.
The Diagilev Project was known to be the most lavish and high-profile spot for international celebrities, corporate executives, and the clubbing elite in Russia. Famous U.S. comedic actor Jim Carey, Brazilian soccer superstar Ronaldo, and former world heavyweight champion boxer Mike Tyson used to stop by the club. The Chinese Embassy was planning to hold a New Year’s party (Chinese Year of Rat) at Dyagilev the night after the fire. The club did not serve beer, and many Russian stars were unable to pass through the notorious face-control; reserving a private booth could cost as much as $40,000. Time magazine devoted three full pages to the club in a recent issue that proclaimed Russian President Vladimir Putin as Man of the Year.
Russia Sees Baby Boom in 2007 The First One in 15 Years
Yuri Mamchur
Something must be going right in Russia's economy and society. A significant increase in the birth rate of a country is only possible when more people have faith in their incomes and hope for the future. Some demographic experts attribute the recent growth in births to President Putin’s policy of making payments to Russian mothers, while others think that it’s just a coincidence.
On Friday the Kansas Times newspaper quoted the Russian Health and Social Development minister's happy announcement. According to new government statistics, last year the Russian Federation witnessed the highest number of children born since the collapse of the Soviet Union fifteen years ago.
Russia's Glamorous Female Bodyguard Killed As Her Porsche Is Carjacked in Moscow
Yuri Mamchur
Anna Loginova with the Porsche Cheyenne she died trying to prevent being stolen
Russia's most famous female bodyguard Anna Loginova has been killed after failing to prevent her own Porsche from being carjacked. The glamorous 29-year-old died from head injuries after clinging to the door handle of the Cheyenne and being dragged along the street at high speed as the car screeched away.
"She suffered serious injuries and died at the scene," said a police spokesman. Police believe that she was killed in a random carjacking and was not the victim of an attack based on her work for wealthy high-profile Russian clients.
Russia? Think Beyond Moscow! Discovery Institute Event in Seattle
Yuri Mamchur
Featuring Bill Robinson
Tuesday, January 15, 4:30 - 6:00 PM
Many Americans hold a Moscow-centric view of Russia, but the country is widely diverse—economically, ethnically, politically, and geographically. Much as American attitudes differ from one part of the country to another, economic development and politics in Russia paint a unique picture—especially when examined by region. So what is going on outside of Moscow, and what does it say about the 'average' Russian citizen? More importantly, what do recent events signify—if anything—about the future of U.S./Russia relations?
Join Bill Robinson, a distinguished international attorney and advisor to Discovery Institute's Real Russia Project, as he discusses these important issues. Since 1990, Mr. Robinson has worked with over 150 clients and projects in eight republics of the former Soviet Union and many regions of Russia. His firm advises clients on how to structure Russian business operations, and how to manage legal issues relating to trade and investment in Russia. The firm's practice is equally divided between representing Russian-owned companies, and Western or Asian companies doing business in Russia. He has visited Russia four times in the past year, and is currently working on projects in the Russian Far East, the Urals and Moscow. You won't want to miss the opportunity to hear a first-person perspective on life in modern day Russia and what the recent election results say about Russian attitudes towards their government.
Many Americans hold a Moscow-centric view of Russia, but the country is widely diverse—economically, ethnically, politically, and geographically. Much as American attitudes differ from one part of the country to another, economic development and politics in Russia paint a unique picture—especially when examined by region. So what is going on outside of Moscow, and what does it say about the 'average' Russian citizen? More importantly, what do recent events signify—if anything—about the future of U.S./Russia relations?