Happy 4th of July America!
Fireworks accompanied by...what else? Pyotr Ilyich Tchaikovsky's "1812 Overture"
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 July 4, 2009 Happy 4th of July America!
U.S. Congressional Junkets:
Who's Number 1, Russia or Georgia?
Russia and Georgia are in the news again this week before President Obama's first visit to Moscow. But the rumors of war in the Caucasus being promoted by certain U.S. pundits should probably take a backseat to a report published by The Wall Street Journal on American Congressional trips to the two countries. Accordng to the WSJ, last year Russia was the 10th most popular foreign destination for Congressional delegations funded by the American taxpayer. Georgia trailed as the 13th most popular destination, but still didn't do too badly, considering that it is a small country in the Caucasus with barely four million people. Not surprisingly, France, Switzerland, Germany, and the United Kingdom were well ahead, with only Kuwait, China and Israel proving exceptions to the overall Euro-Atlantic (and perhaps taxpayer funded Alpine skiing and wine and cheese tasting) bias.
Continue reading "U.S. Congressional Junkets: July 3, 2009 Russia Agrees to More U.S.Transit for Afghanistan
Next week U.S. President Barack Obama will meet Russian President Dimitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in Moscow. This week American and Russian negotiators reportedly reached an agreement to expand the transit of U.S. materiel through Russia in support of the NATO mission in Afghanistan. Not coincidentally, Russia's military chief of staff announced that the U.S. and Russian militaries had resumed direct talks that had been cancelled last year when relations chilled following the August 2008 Russo-Georgian War. Continue reading "Russia Agrees to More U.S.Transit for Afghanistan" » June 26, 2009 Michael Jackson Deeply Mourned in Russia
Today, undoubtedly, the biggest world news is the unexpected death of Michael Jackson, the only true King of Pop. It was night time in Moscow when the news reached Russia, and the sad event dominated the news reports around the country all day long since early morning. All Russian news channels, including the state-owned Rossiya and the First Channel, started their news reports with the details of Michael Jackson’s passing, his career, his visits to Russia, and tribute of his fans around the world and in Russian cities. Many finished the news with a “no comment” music video tribute to the singer. Gazeta.ru wrote that “only a lazy paralyzed person didn’t throw a rock at the idol in the last few years,” however they agreed that his death brought out the true feeling about the star in Russia and around the globe: unreserved love and admiration. Among many Russian leaders, the president of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov said “I deeply grieve with the musician's relatives, friends, and fans because of the untimely passing of the outstanding man, unmatchable singer Michael Jackson, whose death ends the entire epoch of the world music culture.” Michael Jackson was a household name in the countries of the former Soviet Union. During his visits to Moscow in 1993 and 1996, he was greeted as a head of state. Radio Free Europe writes that “his live concert in Moscow in 1993 sparked near-hysteria among scores of Russians hungry for a taste of Western culture.” One of my brightest personal memories from the Nineties is attending Jackson’s History Tour concert at the Dynamo stadium in Moscow in 1996. Today, hundreds of fans laid flowers and toys near the American Embassy in Moscow and in downtown St Petersburg to honor the idol. We all deeply grieve the untimely passing of the musician who influenced our lives and cultures. View the extended post for additional images Continue reading "Michael Jackson Deeply Mourned in Russia" » June 13, 2009 Cantor Compares Obama to Putin
Pravda Turns Paleocon Against Bailout USA
Last week Congressman Eric Cantor (R-VA), the number two Republican in the U.S. House of Representatives, compared President Barack Obama to Russian leader Vladimir Putin in an interview with the Associated Press. Cantor did not mean the comparison in a flattering way. While criticizing the Obama Administration's handling of the bankruptcy of General Motors and Chrysler, Cantor declared: "They said, 'Set aside the rule of law, let's strip secured creditors, bondholders, of their rights. Take them away outside of the bankruptcy process and give them to the political cronies and the auto workers' unions...it's almost like looking at Putin's Russia...you want to reward your political friends at the expense of the certainty of law?"
Continue reading "Cantor Compares Obama to Putin May 25, 2009 Russia Blog: 1,050 Original Posts, 7,000 Readers’ Comments, and Counting!
After a brief break in posting new articles, we’re back to offer you unique and exciting commentary on Russia’s politics, economy, and culture. Russia Blog proudly notes that since 2005 we have published over 1,000 original posts and 7,000 original reader comments. We sincerely welcome your readership and your financial support. Thank you for reading us all these years! - The Editors This week at Russia Blog: world’s biggest gay parade… in Moscow; commentary on the opposition in Moldova; a photo essay of the recent World Russia Forum in Washington D.C., coverage of Moscow’s 2009 Victory Day Parade, and much more. May 21, 2009 Anti-Ford Demonstration Shows Culture Clash
In case you hadn't noticed, Russia's culture, whether the subject is politics or business, doesn't always mesh as nicely with the traditions of the West as one might suppose. The recent arrests of gay rights demonstrators in Moscow--they say they were denied any kind of demonstration permit--illustrate a continuing difference in traditions of free speech on public issues. Regardless of their stance on any given issue, such as gay rights, almost all Americans and Europeans support the right to peaceful protest. In the economic realm, the same is true. However, in the case of a demonstration in Russia against Ford Motor Co., there was no official objection to the protest demonstration, but one does wonder what really was being protested. In the U.S., it is commonplace for companies under financial pressure to cut back employment or, in certain circumstances, to reduce the work week in order to conform to production reductions. If the company lacks orders for cars, it can't afford to build them, can it? But the work week cut still must seem novel to Russians who are more used to a general social contract that accepts low wages in return for security. In the old days of the U.S.S.R., companies just kept making products, often regardless of market acceptance. It was one reason socialism failed. Continue reading "Anti-Ford Demonstration Shows Culture Clash" » May 6, 2009 U.S. Undersecretary of State William Burns
Remarks to the 2009 World Russia Forum
William J. Burns Remarks As Delivered I'm delighted to be here today. I want to thank Ed Lozansky for organizing this very timely forum. The joint declaration issued by President Obama and President Medvedev at their first meeting in London on April 1 reaffirmed that Washington and Moscow share common definitions for many of the threats and opportunities that we see in the world today. The declaration recognized that more unites us than divides us. And it reflected the commitment of both Presidents to move beyond Cold War mentalities and to chart a new course in relations between our countries. The task is now to translate that sentiment into actual achievements as we look ahead to a July summit in Moscow. April 28, 2009 Missile Defense Debate Kicks Off
World Russia Forum in Washington D.C.
Click on the extended post to watch another RT video from World Russia Forum going on this week in Washington D.C. and read an excerpt from the transcript. Discovery Institute's Real Russia Project is co-sponsoring World Russia Forum along with Russia House and the Eurasia Center.
Continue reading "Missile Defense Debate Kicks Off April 25, 2009 World Russia Forum 2009 This Monday, April 27, Washington, D.C.
The 28th Annual World Russia Forum is just around the corner. For two days you’ll have the chance to interact with experts, and to hear and discuss specific proposals from top American and Russian political leaders, businessmen, policy makers, and scholars on how to reset the course of the U.S. – Russia relationship from confrontation to strategic partnership and alliance. The conference will take place at the Hart Senate Office Building, followed by a reception at the Russian Embassy on April 27, 2009, and at the George Washington University and the Russian Cultural Center on April 28, 2009. This year’s Forum will feature welcoming remarks by His Excellency Sergei Kislyak – Russia's Ambassador to the United States of America; keynote presentation by the Honorable William Burns – U.S. Under Secretary of State and former U.S. Ambassador to Russia; a discussion between the famous member of the Russian Diplomatic Academy Igor Panarin (who predicted that the United States will cease to exist by the summer 2010) and U.S. Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC); a presentation on the issues of the current American and Russian agendas in the former Soviet space by the famous online expert Mike Averko; and much more. We are excited about the 28th annual World Russia Forum—the premier conference of its kind. Over 300 people have registered to attend; if you are not one of them, take advantage of the late registration, including the discounted registration option for the full-time students. Learn more about the Forum at www.WorldRussiaForum.org, and have a safe trip to Washington D.C. We look forward to new ideas and friendships that will last beyond the two days of the Forum! April 17, 2009 Twitter Madness in Chisinau
What Happened in Moldova?
The former Soviet republic of Moldova is not the kind of place that typically grabs headlines. As many media reports have reminded us in the last two weeks, Moldova is one of the poorest countries in Europe. While plenty of Moldovans have cellular phones, among post-Soviet republics, Moldova is not exactly as wired as say, Estonia. Given these facts, one would think that the Moldovan capital of Chisinau would be an unlikely place for a revolution fueled by social networking technologies, such as Twitter and Facebook. Yet according to early reports from The New York Times and other Western media outlets, that is supposedly what happened this month, after Moldova's Communist Party won an election that the opposition insists was rigged.
Continue reading "Twitter Madness in Chisinau March 20, 2009 Putin Bans Seal-Hunt, Surprises Environmentalists, Pushes Canada into Isolation
This week, animal welfare activists have found themselves the most unlikely ally. Vladimir Putin, Russia’s Prime-Minister, a judo master, a book author, and a pet lover, who received a tiger cub for his birthday, banned seal hunting in Russian waters. On March 18, Putin labeled the annual hunt of the animals a "bloody industry" that "should have been banned a long time ago." Putin’s words and law put Canada further into isolation on the seal-hunting issue. Sheryl Fink, a researcher for the International Fund for Animal Welfare based in Guelph, Ont, was positively shocked by Putin’s decision. The Russian branch of the organization held rallies in cities across Russia last month, but after years of fruitless campaigning, Mr. Putin's support caught them off guard. "It highlights the fact that Canada is still in the Dark Ages on this issue. It's astounding when even the government of Russia is more willing to listen to its own people than ours is," Ms. Fink said. Continue reading "Putin Bans Seal-Hunt, Surprises Environmentalists, Pushes Canada into Isolation" » March 3, 2009 U.S. Firm in Kiev:
Ukrainian Banking System Might Collapse
An internal letter at an American company in Kiev, Ukraine, informs the employees that they will receive their two-month salary in advance, because... there might be no way to transfer funds a few days from now. The firm’s financial analysts predict that it might become impossible to transfer money within the Ukrainian banking system. The message says: “The Ukrainian economy is experiencing unprecedented challenges, and one of them is the potential for instability in the banking system. The failure of the Ukrainian banking system is not imminent, however, risks have increased significantly in recent weeks… Should the Ukrainian system not pass these tests, it might significantly affect the ability of businesses to transfer money in the system, including making the salary payments.” February 21, 2009 Stratfor's Friedman:
New U.S.-Russia Cold War Likely
Since its inception ten years ago, the Austin, Texas based "private intelligence agency" Strategic Forecasting Inc. (Stratfor) has consistently drawn a great deal of attention from the mainstream media. Occasionally, as in its coverage of The Hague war crimes tribunal of former Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic in the early 2000s, this "shadow CIA" has been accurate, demonstrating that it can cultivate reliable sources in places like Belgrade and elsewhere. But when it comes to Dr. George Friedman, the President of Stratfor, the predictions and "strategic forecasts" have often taken a turn towards the bizarre (for example, Friedman has predicted that Mexico will become a major rival for America in the late 21st century). Not for nothiing has my alma mater university community of Austin, Texas (whose unofficial motto is "Keep Austin Weird") become the home of both George Friedman and the professional conspiracy theorist and frequent Russia Today TV guest Alex Jones. It's been said by many observers that a gaffe is when a politician tells the truth. In the case of Friedman, during a recent appearance on the U.S. conservative Dennis Prager's talk radio show, the President of Stratfor revealed what he thinks the purpose of NATO expansion is: "to block the Russians" from reasserting influence in the Russian near abroad of the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. Click on the extended post to read more.
Continue reading "Stratfor's Friedman: February 19, 2009 Yuri Mamchur on Radio Echo Moskvi
Dear Readers, Dr. Andrey Afanasievich Kokoshin is a member of the State Duma; deputy chairman of the Duma Committee on Industry, Construction, and High Technologies; chairman of Expert Councils for Biotechnologies and Information Technologies; Director of the Institute for International Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences; and Chairman of the Russian National Council for the Development of Education. February 6, 2009 Kyrgyzstan to Close Manas Air Base
Russia Ready to Negotiate U.S., NATO Supplies for Afghanistan
Russia apparently got the message from the incoming Obama Administration that the new American President had planned a "surge" into Afghanistan to fight a resurgent Taliban. Now that resolve is being tested, in the sense that the Kremlin wants to see what quid pro quo the U.S. is willing to give in return for the use of Russian territory and railroads for shipping materiel from Europe to former Soviet Central Asia. However, unlike the terrible day of September 11, 2001, when then President Vladimir Putin was one of the first world leaders to call President Bush and offer him access to sharing intelligence on the Taliban and his country's airspace for armed U.S. overflights, this time Russia is going to "trust, but verify" American intentions in Eurasia before agreeing to a full-scale supply effort. Click on the extended post to read an excerpt from the Associated Press story. January 30, 2009 Save the Date -
World Russia Forum, April 27-28, 2009!
This year, for the first time, Discovery Institute is teaming with the American University in Moscow to jointly sponsor the 28th Annual World Russia Forum in Washington, D.C. The conference, titled “America and Russia: New Leadership, Challenges, Chances” will be held on April 27-28, 2009. For more information, early registration, and a preliminary agenda, please visit Forum's new and improved website: www.WorldRussiaForum.org.
Continue reading "Save the Date - January 29, 2009 Metropolitan Kirill of Smolensk and Kaliningrad Elected Patriarch of Russian Orthodox Church
Click on the extended post to watch Russia Today videos about the new Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia. January 24, 2009 U.S. Gen. Petraeus: Russia Agrees to
Transit Supplies for Afghanistan
The continued deterioration of internal security in Pakistan has contributed to a warming of U.S.-Russia ties. General David Petraeus, the American commander who led the "surge" in Iraq widely credited with reducing violence in that country, announced this week that the U.S. and Russia had reached a tentative agreement on bolstering supply lines for Afghanistan through Russian territory. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, in a visit to Uzbekistan, another key transit country for supplies to the NATO mission in Afghanistan, told reporters this week that he hoped for an improvement in the Afghan situation with the new Obama Administration focusing more on stabilizing the war-torn country. Click here to read the previous Russia Blog story on this topic: Click on the extended post to read an extended excerpt from the AP article.
Continue reading "U.S. Gen. Petraeus: Russia Agrees to January 21, 2009 Putin: "Big Expectations" of Obama
Putin warns of 'big expectations' of Obama "We have watched an election campaign with great attention and we have heard and seen the positive signals which have been directed at us," Putin told German newspaper editors and journalists in Dresden, Germany. He singled out Obama's stance on the US missile defence plan in Europe and US apparent readiness to wait on a NATO membership for countries like Georgia and Ukraine, which Russia considers its sphere of influence. "We have heard and are fully in agreement that we have a lot in common when it comes to the solution of problems related to limiting the arms race," he said. "We have a lot of common problems that we can really only jointly solve. The same goes for the problems in the Middle East, with Iran, the problems of non-proliferation in general." But he also warned of the danger of raising expectations too high. "I am deeply convinced that the biggest disappointments are born out of big expectations," he added. Click here to read the rest of the story at Breitbart.com. Click on the extended post to watch a video of and read the text of President Barack Hussein Obama's inaugural speech. You can also watch a Russia Today TV video panel discussion about Obama's new presidency and the possibility for changes in U.S.-Russia relations. January 17, 2009 Russia-Ukraine Gas War Jokes
In a sign that people are getting used to the perennial haggling between Russia and Ukraine over the price of natural gas, the AFP is reporting some of the jokes (anekdoty) making their rounds among the Russian and Ukrainian publics. Interestingly, while many of them mock the Kremlin for taking a tough line on gas prices with Ukraine, many more make fun of the Ukrainian leadership for its constant infighting and inability to keep the gas flowing. Click on the extended post to read excerpts from the AFP story. January 7, 2009 S Rozhdestvom Kristovym!
С Рождеством Христовым!
Today is Christmas Day on the Eastern Orthodox Christian calendar in Russia. From the editors of Russia Blog to you and your family, Merry Christmas! January 1, 2009 Happy New Year from Russia Blog!
С НОВЫМ ГОДОМ!
The editors of Russia Blog wish you and your family a very happy and prosperous 2009!
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's
New Year 2009 Address to the Nation
Every year on New Year's Eve Russia's President gives a speech to the Russian nation. This year was the first time in eight years that Vladimir V. Putin would not be giving the address. Instead, it was his handpicked successor, Dmitry Medvedev. As could be expected after a tough year for many Russian families, Medvedev's speech emphasized home, individual dreams and aspirations, and the importance of family in difficult times. Presidential Speech New Year's Eve 2007-2008 Presidential Speech New Year's Eve 2006-2007 Click on the extended post to read the text and watch a Russia Today TV video with English translation of Medvedev's remarks
Continue reading "Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's December 26, 2008 Remembering Paul Weyrich: Biography
As a tribute to Paul Weyrich, Russia Blog is reposting below this article two of his op-eds published earlier this year on topics related to Russia. We hope our readers enjoy them and remember Weyrich for who he was -- a lifelong advocate of ordered liberty in America and around the world. - The Editors Paul Weyrich, the founder and longtime CEO of the conservative Free Congress Foundation, died on December 18, 2008, at the age of 66. Born in 1942, Weyrich began his career as a young newspaper and radio reporter in Kenosha, Wisconsin, and as an activist in the groundbreaking 1964 campaign of Republican Senator Barry Goldwater. While working as press secretary for Colorado U.S. Senator Gordon L. Allott, Weyrich formed a friendship with Jack Wilson, an aide to the brewing magnate Joseph Coors. In 1973, with $250,000 in seed money from Joseph Coors, Weyrich, Wilson and Ed Fuelner founded the Heritage Foundation, which would become one of the most influential non-profit public policy institutes in the world and a model for other think tanks, including the Seattle-based Discovery Institute. Weyrich became involved in outreach to democracy advocates in Russia as President of Free Congress Foundation's Kreible Institute from 1989 to 1996. Through Kreible Institute events, Weyrich met Dr. Edward Lozansky, a Soviet émigré and naturalized U.S. citizen who had created the group Russians for Reagan during the 1980s to support Reagan's pro-freedom policies in the Communist Bloc. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Weyrich and Lozansky joined with others to petition the George H.W. Bush Administration to bury the Cold War divide once and for all, by admitting Yeltsin's struggling Russian Federation into NATO. Weyrich and Lozansky's proposal did not get very far in the Bush 41 White House. Nonetheless, for his work with the Kreible Foundation and personal outreach to Russians, Weyrich deserves to be remembered as a champion of post-Cold War reconciliation between America and Russia. Click on the extended post to read more about the remarkable life and career of Paul Weyrich. December 24, 2008 Merry Christmas 2008!
Click on the extended post for links to other Russia Blog Christmas posts! December 9, 2008 Patriarch Alexy II to Be Buried Today
The funeral for Alexy II, Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia, is starting at this hour Russia Today TV is providing exclusive English-language coverage live from Christ the Savior Cathedral. If you have a fast Internet connection, you can watch the live video feed here. UPDATE: 0900 PST Click on the extended post to read an excerpted news story from the AFP. December 7, 2008 Russia Mourns Patriarch Alexey II
Alexey II, the Patriarch of Moscow and of All Russia, died on Friday at his residence in Peredelkino outside Moscow. The primate of the Moscow Patriarchate was 79 years old. Metropolitan Kirill of Smolensk and Kaliningrad is the interim Patriarch for the next six months until a Holy Synod of hierarchs convenes to select Alexey's successor. The funeral for Alexey will begin Tuesday, December 9, 2008 at 11 a.m., in the Cathedral of Christ the Savior in Moscow. President Dimitry Medvedev, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, and other Russian dignitaries and national figures will be in attendance. Alexey will be buried Tuesday afternoon at the Bogoyavlensky Monastery (Church of the Epiphany) in Moscow. Panikhida services praying for the Patriarch are being said in Russian Orthodox Churches all over the world today and tomorrow. In the last forty eight hours, thousands of mourners have filed in to the Cathedral of Christ the Savior, while thousands more have lined up outside the church along the Moscow embankment, standing in freezing temperatures to pay their respects. Over 600 churches in and around Moscow rang their bells this weekend to announce the Patriarch's passing, an event unprecedented in the history of post-Soviet Russia. Click on the extended post to read more. November 14, 2008 More Developments on Obama-Russia Relations
The cold shoulder President Medvedev gave President-Elect Obama a few days ago seems to be warming all the time. The Washington Times reports: Russian leaders are offering an olive branch to the incoming Obama administration in hopes that it will scrap a planned missile-defense system based in Poland and the Czech Republic. Russian President Dimitry Medvedev told French journalists that he had spoken by phone with President-elect Barack Obama and that they hoped to meet as soon as possible. Please visit the extended post to read the entire article. Continue reading "More Developments on Obama-Russia Relations" » November 10, 2008 Georgia's Account of War with Russia Questioned
What really happened to provoke the recent crisis in the Caucusus--a crisis that gravely set back Western relations with Russia--is bound to get more scholarly scrutiny with the passage of time. This latest report, in any event, is not going to help the Georgian picture. Regardless, isn't it amazing how things have changed since August? The price of oil collapsed, and with it the urgency over pipeline routes and prices in Central Europe. Because of the financial panic, Russia's sense of invulnerability has been set back. Public perceptions of the Kremlin leadership may be deteriorating along with the market--though Russia is not yet in a recession like America is experiencing. And the U.S. has a new president-elect. President Medvedev's challenge to that new president-elect has not gone down as well in Russia as might have been expected. In short, hardly anyone is really thinking about Georgia now. What a shift! International Herald Tribune reports: Newly available accounts by independent military observers of the beginning of the war between Georgia and Russia this summer call into question the longstanding Georgian assertion that it was acting defensively against separatist and Russian aggression. Instead, the accounts suggest that Georgia's inexperienced military attacked the isolated separatist capital of Tskhinvali on Aug. 7 with indiscriminate artillery and rocket fire, exposing civilians, Russian peacekeepers and unarmed monitors to harm. Visit the extended post to read the IHT article. Continue reading "Georgia's Account of War with Russia Questioned " » November 9, 2008 Russian Sub Accident Kills 20, Injures 21
The Russian Navy has witnessed three high profile fatal accidents at sea in the last ten years: the 2000 sinking of the Kursk in the Barents Sea; the 2003 sinking of a retiring sub that went down with 11 sailors on board; and now another mishap on board an attack submarine in the Pacific Fleet this weekend, which suffocated 20 Russian sailors and left 21 others hospitalized. The incident happened Saturday as the Nerpa, a (NATO designated) Akula II class nuclear-powered attack submarine, was undergoing its first major sea trials after leaving its base near the Russian Far East port of Vladivostok. A freon fire control system unexpectedly activated, suffocating crew members who were caught in the affected compartments. Apparently the crew members did not have access to or were not trained to use their emergency respirator devices to breathe. Construction on the Akula boat reportedly began in 1991 and funds only became available to complete the submarine in the last few years. Russia's Navy remains a shadow of its Soviet predecessor, with poor crewmember pay and thin to non-existent budgets for training in the past fifteen years taking their toll on a service that the Putin/Medvedev Administration seeks to reconstitute. In October 2008 President Medvedev proposed that Russia build new aircraft carrier battle groups, complete with aircraft, support ships and submarines. But this vision seems to be little more than a fantasy, in light of the global economic crisis and falling oil export revenues undercutting the Russian federal budget. Click on the extended post to read an excerpt from the Associated Press story about this tragedy. Continue reading "Russian Sub Accident Kills 20, Injures 21" » November 5, 2008 Medvedev Wants “Fresh Start” in U.S.-Russia Relations, But Doesn’t Start Fresh Himself
Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s President, yesterday addressed Russia’s Federal Assembly on issues of national security, domestic problems and the global financial crisis. The speech was delivered shortly after it became clear that Barack Obama had been elected as the next President of the United States of America. Surveys showed that Russians favored Obama’s candidacy over Senator McCain’s, hoping, many said, for a friendlier and more cooperative relationship between the two countries. Sad to report, Medvedev’s words did not live up to these expectations. Either the speech was already prepared and the Russian president did not want to deviate from it, or Medvedev sincerely wished to start the new relationship with his future American counterpart by throwing down a challenge and continuing the old rhetoric. So, instead of extending congratulations to the American President-elect, Medvedev used his address to assure America that if it does not back away from its plan for a missile defense system in Russia’s backyard, Russia will put short-range missiles and a radio-jamming installation in Kaliningrad. Western news agencies called Medvedev’s statement a “first test” for Obama’s presidency. November 4, 2008 Congressman Jerrold Nadler:
"Let Russia Invade Georgia"
Congressman Jerrold Nadler (D-NY) travelled to Florida last week to campaign for the national Democratic ticket led by Senator Barack Obama. Nadler gave a speech urging an audience of mostly Jewish retirees at a synagogue in Boca Raton, Florida to support Obama's bid for the American presidency. Nadler did not expect his off-the-cuff statements about Obama's controversial former pastor from Chicago (the Rev. Jeremiah Wright) and the Russia-Georgia conflict to end up on YouTube. However, Pamela Geller, a pro-McCain conservative blogger who publishes a blog called Atlas Shrugs, recorded Nadler's candid response to skeptical questions from his audience. Today Fox News anchor Greta Van Susteren and the Associated Press picked up the story of the controversy over Nadler's remarks. Given that today is election day in America, Nadler's comment that Obama "didn't have the political courage" to leave his controversial former church in Chicago received far more attention in the media than his comments related to Russia.
Continue reading "Congressman Jerrold Nadler: U.S. Election Day 2008:
The Electoral Map and Math
Today is election day in the United States of America. Most public opinion polls are showing either a statistical dead heat or predicting that Democrat Senator Barack Obama will narrowly defeat Republican Senator John McCain in the race for the White House. National public opinion surveys also suggest that Democrats will enlarge their majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. However, four years ago, many exit polls inaccurately predicted a win for Democrat Senator John Kerry over incumbent Republican President George W. Bush. As of Tuesday afternoon, the presidential contest appears to be close, not necessarily in the popular vote count but in state by state races. Russians and other foreigners may not be aware of how the American presidency is decided. The winner is not determined by the margin of popular votes cast for a particular candidate nationwide, but by whichever ticket gathers the most delegates from the electoral outcomes in all 50 U.S. states. This article explains where the American election is most likely to be decided.
Continue reading "U.S. Election Day 2008: October 31, 2008 Russians Get News on American Elections that Even Americans Don’t Get
Continue reading "Russians Get News on American Elections that Even Americans Don’t Get" » October 23, 2008 US, Russia Held High-Level Military Talks
The meeting was organized at the request of the Russians and held at the Königstedt Manor along the Vantaa River, just outside Helsinki. The talks were organized without any urgent reason, and were devoted to the discussion of the mutual concerns and interests. American Admiral Mullen said: “Even in our darkest days of the cold war we were talking to each other — and I think we need to continue.” Obviously, the United States and Russia should be talking about military relations—and many other issues, too. So, good for the Bush Administration and the Medvedev/Putin (or Putin/Medvedev) government in Russia. But just as obviously, this sort of thing should have been going on already. Russia and the United States are not natural adversaries, unlike the old days. But the potential for real misunderstandings and miscalculations is huge. The Russian-American relationship deserves intensive rebuilding efforts. The New York Times has the detailed story. Continue reading "US, Russia Held High-Level Military Talks" » October 10, 2008 Russia in the U.S. Presidential Debate
On Tuesday night Democrat Senator Barack Obama of Illinois and Republican Senator John McCain of Arizona met at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee for the second presidential debate. As expected, the main topic in the town hall style question and answer forum was the global economic crisis, followed by government spending, taxes and energy policy. At one point, in response to a question about his priorities as president, Senator Obama declared that the U.S. could no longer afford to annually transfer billions in wealth to major oil producers abroad, specifically mentioning Russia, Venezuela and Iran in that category. Obama then touted his ten year plan that he says will reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil and promote alternative energy technologies. Click on the extended post to read more. October 9, 2008 Sarkozy Supports Medvedev’s Proposed Reform of European Security
French and Russian Presidents Nicholas Sarkozy and Dmitry Medvedev delivered key speeches during the World Policy Conference in Evian, France, on October 8. The Russian President publicized his concept of international security. According to Medvedev, a new treaty needs to replace the 1975 accords reached at the Helsinki conference and unite the Euro-Atlantic region under one “game plan.” The outlined concept consists of five rules (posted below) that follow the Kremlin’s desire for a more “multi-polar” world. The bottom line is that there should be no single nation with exclusive rights for providing security in Europe, and that military intervention will be avoided as a tool of solving problems or as a response to a threat to countries linked by a mutual defense agreements. The Medvedev address was followed by Sarkozy’s speech, in which the French President supported Medvedev’s idea of fundamentally changing the Euro-Atlantic security structure. Continue reading "Sarkozy Supports Medvedev’s Proposed Reform of European Security" » October 8, 2008 Olmert Meets with Medvedev;
Israel Presses Russia on Arms Sales to Iran
The sale of S-300 surface to air missiles by Russia to Iran has not been confirmed either by Moscow or Teheran. However, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert urged Russia against selling weapons to Iran in his meetings with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday and Tuesday. The best version of the S-300 system, known by NATO as the SA-20, can track 100 targets and fire on planes 120 kilometers away. Hours before Olmert’s arrival, Rosoboronexport, the Russian arms export agency, said that it had no information on Russian plans to deliver the SAM system to either Iran or Syria, reported Russia’s Interfax news agency. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hassan Qashqavi said: “Iran’s defensive might is based on our indigenous capabilities, and whatever action that helps with expanding and strengthening our military and defensive might, we’ll look into that. We have good defense cooperation with the Russians. One example would be anti-aircraft systems. We have had good cooperation and we continue to cooperate with them.”
Continue reading "Olmert Meets with Medvedev; October 6, 2008 Russian Market Leads World in Losses
On Monday, October 6, the Russian market experienced perhaps the worst day in its history. Despite several trading pauses, total market losses equaled to 19 percent. Some Russian blue chip stocks lost nearly 40 percent. Declining oil prices didn’t help the markets either. The dollar-denominated RTS index dropped to 867 points, while the ruble-denominated MICEX halted trading when its index dropped by 18.66 percent, closing at 749.66 points. Russian companies saw their equity value evaporate on both Moscow and London exchanges. In London, shares of Russia’s “Norilsky Nickel” lost 44.28%, VTB – 36.18%, “Tatneft” - 45,23%, «Uralkaly» – 47,78%, Rosneft» –39,77%, LUKoil – 36,09%, «Surgutneftegaz» – 31,25%, Х5RETAIL – 26,12%. In Moscow, “Norilsky Nickel” plummeted 37.67%, “Rosneft” – 27.41%, Gazprom – 24.42%, LUKoil – 24.16%, “Surgutneftegaz” – 22.92%, MTS – 21.21%, Sberbank – 16.32%, VTB – 24.5%. Click on the extended post to read more September 27, 2008 McCain Slams Russia in First Presidential Debate
Both Candidates Support Ukraine, Georgia NATO Membership
Last night in Oxford, Mississippi on the campus of Ole Miss University the Democrat and Republican contenders for the White House clashed in their first presidential debate. The topic of foreign policy had been agreed to in advance, but given the extraordinary financial crisis impacting the U.S. this week, tax and spending policies were also key topics for PBS moderator Jim Lehrer. To Lehrer's credit, as usual, he didn't let either candidate excessively interrupt the other, while highlighting their areas of disagreement. No surprise, Senator John McCain declared his distaste for the Kremlin. McCain said: "Russia has now become a nation fueled by petro-dollars that has basically become a KGB apparatchik-run government...I looked in Mr. Putin's eyes and I saw three letters -- a K, a G and B." Click on the extended post to read a transcript of the debate. September 22, 2008 Russian Travel: Russians and Israelis
Will Visit Each Other Without Visas
Starting at 1 a.m. on September 20, 2008, Russian tourists can visit Israel without visas. All they need to have is a foreign travel passport valid for at least six months on the date of entry. (Russians have two passports – one for domestic use and one for travelling abroad). Russian visitors have to be ready to present booked return flights, hotel reservations or letters of invitation from relatives, and funds availability for the period of their stay. The entry to the country is free, and maximum visa-free stay cannot exceed 90 days at a time. The agreement between Russia and Israel is mutual and was signed on March 20, however, it took half a year to figure out the legal nuances. The law is the result of close ties between the two nations. Many families have relatives in both countries, the result of the mass immigration from the Soviet Union to Israel in the 1970s and 1990s. Sixteen percent of Israelis are fluent in the Russian language, and Israeli government and businesses often provide information in Russian. The Russian language is semi-official in Israel and featured on roadway signs in some areas of the country.
Continue reading "Russian Travel: Russians and Israelis September 16, 2008 Russia Mourns Aeroflot Plane Crash Victims
Last Sunday morning Aeroflot Nord Flight 821 crashed near the city of Perm in the Ural Mountains, killing all 81 passengers and crew members on board. The flight took off from Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport around midnight and crashed into a ravine several miles from the Perm airport at 3:10 a.m. Moscow time. The cause of the crash remains unknown. Russia's Air Accident Investigation Commission of the Interstate Aviation Committee is leading the investigation, with assistance from the American National Transportation Safety Board, the U.S. Federal Aviation Authority, and Boeing. Continue reading "Russia Mourns Aeroflot Plane Crash Victims" » September 10, 2008 The Economist Hosts Oxford-Style Online Debate
on Russian-Western Relations
On Tuesday, September 9th, The Economist started debating the West’s response to renewed Russian assertiveness for two-weeks as part of an ongoing, Oxford-style Online Debate Series. We thought readers of Russia Blog would find this debate relevant and wanted to give our readers an invite to participate and be heard alongside notable experts on the topic. Below is a sneak peek at the Pro and Con opening statements that posted on Tuesday.
Continue reading "The Economist Hosts Oxford-Style Online Debate September 9, 2008 Crisis in the Caucasus:
A Unified Timeline, August 7-16, 2008
First compiled on August 28, 2008, this timeline is continuously being revised as more information becomes available. The latest PDF version can be downloaded from my web site. This unified timeline of the onset of the crisis in the Caucasus is based on the detailed timelines available on the web sites of the Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Russia Today news service. These have been supplemented with various Georgian, Russian, and international press reports (references in brackets refer to the list of sources at the end of this document: “G” for Georgian, “R” for Russian, “M” for miscellaneous). For convenience all local times have been converted to GMT (UTC) which, at the time these events unfolded, was GMT (UTC) +4 in both Moscow and Tbilisi. There is surprisingly little disagreement about the actual sequence of events. Those that exceed two hours are noted with italics. My comments, in yellow at the bottom, attempt to highlight some notable findings.
Continue reading "Crisis in the Caucasus: September 8, 2008 Russian Scholars Take Up Suddenly Controversial Topic of U.S.-Russian Relations
Edward Lozansky, President of the American University in Moscow and a frequent contributor to Russia Blog, is a featured speaker this Thursday, September 11, 2008 at “U.S.-Russian Relations: The Way Forward,” a conference the university is co-sponsoring with the Institute of Social and Political Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences. (For Moscow area residents, it is from 11 AM to 2 PM at the Academy's headquarters on Leninsky Prospect 32a, Presidential Hall.) Speakers include: August 28, 2008 Behold the Bear:
10 Reasons Americans Should Care about Russia
The war in South Ossetia and Georgia, though appalling, resulted in fewer deaths and damage than originally reported. It is still not "over" and probably won't be for some time. Meanwhile, it definitely did serious damage to Russia's relationship with the West. In some ways, relations are worse than at any time since well before the collapse of the USSR--in other words, in roughly a quarter century. We are going to say a lot more on this, and we are not inclined to be particularly laudatory to any of the players. The war has not made any country look good. Meanwhile, before the war we wrote a report on Ten Reasons Americans Should Care About Russia. It follows, and, as you will see, it remains valid. Perhaps as tempers cool, people of good will can consider what is at stake; what there is to gain, and what there is to lose. Download the PDF version of the report, or proceed to the extended post to read the online version of the publication.
Continue reading "Behold the Bear: August 27, 2008 Suddenly it’s a Georgia “Standoff”?
There is a certain game-playing going on in the Caucasus that is not very confidence-inspiring.
US, Russia Anchor Military Ships in Georgian Ports BATUMI, Georgia (AP) — A U.S. military ship loaded with aid docked at a southern Georgian port Wednesday, and Russia sent three missile boats to another Georgian port as the standoff escalated over a nation devastated by war with Russia. The dockings came a day after Russian President Dmitry Medvedev recognized two Georgian rebel territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states, prompting harsh criticism from Western nations. August 22, 2008 Surprising High Notes Struck in Ossetia
Who would have imagined that barely after the guns stopped in South Ossetia, the principal conductor of the London Symphony, Valery Gergiev, who also is lead guest conductor of the New York Metropolitan Opera, would appear out of the smoke to lead a classical musical requiem for the war dead? Gergiev, it seems, is a native of Ossetia, and his performance of Tchaikovsky’s Fifth Symphony and Shostrakovich’s Seventh Symphony was surely one of the few propaganda coups—and the classiest—that Russia has had in the current international crisis. One can note that the numbers of war dead are turning out to have been exaggerated in early reports, and one can hope that people will find a resonance in their hearts for all of them--on both sides. That might cause reasonable men of good will to seek real peace. Continue reading "Surprising High Notes Struck in Ossetia" » August 21, 2008 While Conflict Deepens, Business Goes On
Many have wondered whether the conflict in U.S.-Russian relations over Georgia was going to affect business relations between private corporations of the two countries. Tentative indications are “no.” Last week, reports Reuters, Best Buy Co Inc (BBY.N), the leading U.S. retail electronics chain, expanded into Russia, having registered its Future Shop trademark to operate in the fast-growing market. Victoria's Secret, owned by Limited Brands (LTD.N), and Japanese retailer Muji have also registered trademarks in Russia this month, Kommersant reported, as a decade of economic growth continues to boost wages and demand for high-end goods. Vedomosti newspaper, citing the government patent agency Rospatent, said Best Buy had entered its license application for Future Shop, a Canadian subsidiary, in 2006, but has never voiced any intentions of opening stores in Russia. Rospatent has registered the Future Shop brand and is still reviewing the application for the Best Buy trademark, Vedomosti reported. Kommersant also reported that Best Buy had this month been granted Russian trademark rights for Future Shop. The move of Victoria's Secret, Bes tBuy, and Rospatent, most likely, has no relationship to the ongoing conflict, but is a great indicator that the American-Russian business has a bright future. Continue reading "While Conflict Deepens, Business Goes On" » August 17, 2008 Classic "What Were They Thinking?"
The Washington Post has perhaps the best report so far on how the war in South Ossetia and Georgia got started. It is astonishing how this episode ignited a torrent of abuse and prejudice, second guessing and histrionics on both sides. August 16, 2008 Ambassador Bruce Chapman's Radio
Interview About the Russian-Georgian Conflict
Listen to my interview about the Russian-Georgian conflict on Seattle 710 KIRO AM's Dave Ross Show from August 14, 2008 by downloading this file. For an easy download, please, click on the link with the right button of your mouse and choose an option "save target as." After the podcast file is uploaded, you can open it with Windows Media Player or any other free media software. August 15, 2008 Has Georgia Signed the Ceasefire?
The BBC is reporting this on the US Secretary of State’s visit to Tbilisi: “Ms Rice will present President Mikhail Saakashvili with a European Union-brokered ceasefire deal, but he has said he would need ‘a closer look’ before signing. The Russian President, Dmitry Medvedev, has demanded that Georgia sign the deal immediately - but said only Russia could guarantee peace in the region.” But we were told several days ago, and everyone has assumed, that President Sarkozy, when he arrived in Tbilisi with the Medvedev-Sarkozy plan, already succeeded in getting President Saakashvili’s signature on the document. Now it seems to remain an open option. If the BBC report is true, there is no ceasefire between the Russian and Georgia forces. August 14, 2008 Intelligence Failure on Georgia:
Open an Investigation
The precipitating event in the war in South Ossetia and Georgia was the Georgian shelling of Tskhinvali. That either provided an "excuse" for the Russians to invade or a justifiable "reason". Either way, without that shelling the outbreak of war was unlikely. How did it happen? Why were the Georgians so reckless? Some Russians say it was part of a plan to annex South Ossetia by force. Georgians say it was in response to provocations (the Russians supposedly set the Georgians up). There also are different views of what America's role was at that time. Some Russians suppose that the United States knew and approved of the attack.
Continue reading "Intelligence Failure on Georgia: Continuing Fact Dearth in Ossetia/Georgia
International reporting is definitely improving, but the holes are still major. For example, it is said in a Wall Street Journal op-ed that the Russians tried to bomb the Georgian oil pipeline, but there is no actual reporting to sustain this claim. Likewise, there is a reporting lacuna on what exactly precipitated the Georgian shelling of Tskhinvali. What exact provocations were they responding to? Their own story on this deserves to be heard. Was it something specific or general, or what? Did the Russians agitate the Ossetian militia; if so, how? So, when did the “war” begin? Meanwhile, there is no doubt that we have seen a serious diplomatic and political debacle for Georgia, the U.S. and even Russia, and to an extent, the European Union. Gratefully, the war--once it had been engaged—does not seem to have realized the extent of killing feared early on. It could have been worse. Of course, if you or someone you know is one of the statistics, that is no consolation. Continue reading "Continuing Fact Dearth in Ossetia/Georgia" » Some Context Before It Is Lost
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has two valuable video clips worth noting: the first is the South Ossetia/Georgia chronology of fighting, the second the rally of Eastern European leaders in Tbilisi three days ago. The chronology is useful because it shows the confusion about whom provoked whom first, though there is no doubt that the Georgians did start the shelling, giving Russia reason to invade. This, along with the US government failure to figure out what was going on in time to stop it, has to constitute the disaster's precipitating blunder. August 13, 2008 War in Georgia:
Power Vacuum in Gori
It is very difficult to understand exactly what is happening in Gori but it is clear that it is bad and getting worse. The BBC is there and, looking at their reports (also this link) it seems clear that the civil authorities have fled and that people are being murdered and robbed. My suspicion is that, apart from the usual criminal elements who take advantage of power vacuums, it is probably Ossetians seeking revenge. On the Russian side, Interfax reports: “Deputy chief of the headquarters of the peacekeeping force Maj. Gen. Borisov today travelled to Gori especially to discuss questions of Georgian troop withdrawal with the local administration and law enforcers. Unfortunately, he did not discover any local leaders in the city”. War in Georgia:
Now Comes the Hangover
France, which currently holds the Presidency of the EU, in the persons of President Sarkozy and Foreign Minister Kouchner, has induced President Saakashvili to sign the Medvedev-Sarkozy agreement. According to both President Medvedev’s office and a French news agency the terms are as follows: 1. Tbilisi must make a commitment not to use force to settle its secessionist problems. 2. Georgian armed forces must cease fire. 3. Georgian armed forces must return to their barracks. War in Georgia:
Interesting Reporting by WSJ The Wall Street Journal offers good coverage of the events from the heart of the conflict. Russian Troops Still Pour Into South Ossetia By ANDREW OSBORN and MARC CHAMPION
TSKHINVALI, Georgia -- The Kremlin said Tuesday that it was suspending military action in the separatist enclave of South Ossetia inside Georgia, but huge Russian military convoys still snaked toward the scarred capital, Tskhinvali. After five days of fighting -- Russia's biggest use of force outside its borders since the 1991 Soviet collapse -- a victorious Russian army offered a small group of foreign journalists a carefully controlled glimpse of the territory it went to war over.
Continue reading "War in Georgia: August 12, 2008 War in Georgia:
Too Many Arguments, Not Enough Facts
True story from Seattle: Two teen-age girls were overheard at lunch yesterday: "Did you see that the Russians have attacked Georgia?" Well, those girls are not much far behind the mentality of the political and media--and think tank--classes these past few days. People should be wary about the lack of information, let alone perspective. But that hasn't stopped the opinion classes from offering their dire analyses and even more dire recommendations. We could link to literally hundreds of opinion pieces about the significance of what has happened in the "war in Ossetia and Georgia." But before we opine further on this here, some questions:
Continue reading "War in Georgia: Are the US and Russia
Heading for Another Cold War?
Edward Lozansky, senior advisor to Discovery Institute’s Real Russia Project and the President and Founder of the American University in Moscow, participated yesterday on the discussion panel “Are the US and Russia Heading for Another Cold War?” on the National Public Radio’s program “To the Point.” Other program participants were: Paul Rimple (Reporter, Christian Science Monitor), Janusz Bugajski (Director of the New European Democracies Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies), and Steve Clemons (Director, New America Foundation). We encourage our readers to listen to the podcast of the show. Listen to the show (streaming audio) August 11, 2008 Discovery Institute and
the War in Ossetia and Georgia
"Truth is the first casualty of war," as is always said about now, because that statement is almost always right. And the second casualty is surely civilized restraint. Wars are easy to start, hard to contain, let alone end. Right now, the surprising events in South Ossetia and Georgia represent a clash of information and interpretations. This is getting sorted out, but slowly. However, the events themselves are moving with agonizing speed. For a couple of years now Discovery Institute's Russia Blog has been almost unique in representing otherwise ignored news about Russia, Eastern Europe and Eurasia. Often we provide access to news about business, culture and social developments that are occurring in a region that the West--including the USA--has tended to neglect since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Now we are faced with a war in Georgia that is as big a surprise to most people (diplomats, too, it appears) as it is an obvious catastrophe for the peoples involved and a historic setback for Russian/Western relations. The complications for other regions will soon develop.
Continue reading "Discovery Institute and Russia v. Georgia: Four Painful Lessons
By John C. Wohlstetter (special to Russia Blog)
Ethnic separatism once again has further destabilized world geopolitics, with the outbreak of military conflict between Russia and Georgia over the breakaway regions of South Ossetia & Abkhazia; Russia also attacked Georgian targets in Abkhazia—and as of midday Monday has invaded Georgia and occupied Gori (Soviet dictator Josef Stalin’s birthplace), just 55 miles from the Georgian capital of Tblisi. While President Bush, out to lunch in China, watches swimming, basketball & baseball in Beijing, here is what one Georgian farmer told a British reporter: “Why won’t America and NATO help us? If they won’t help us now, why did we help them in Iraq?” Four lessons come immediately to mind: Continue reading "Russia v. Georgia: Four Painful Lessons" » War in Georgia:
Putting Things in Perspective
This article will ask and attempt to answer three questions: 1. War in Georgia: Russian aggression against an independent country or an indiscriminate Georgian assault against Ossetians overlooked by the U.S. media? 2. What would the United States have done if a bordering country (let’s say Mexico) slaughtered 1,400 U.S. citizens and 10 U.S. soldiers overnight, leaving U.S. citizens by the tens of thousands without food and water? 3. If ethnic cleansing on Russian borders is none of Russia’s business, and should not result in a Russian military response against the aggressor, how can one explain NATO's bombing and occupation of Serbia in 1999, a country that did not share a common border with the U.S. or other NATO members?
Continue reading "War in Georgia: August 10, 2008 War in Georgia:
Misreading Ossetia -- Chronology Matters
Mr. Charles Johnson, of the influential conservative weblog Little Green Footballs, has noticed our site: “In addition to promoting the anti-science hoax of ‘intelligent design,’ the Discovery Institute runs a pro-Russian site called ‘Russia Blog,’ and today they come out in favour of Russia’s brutal assault on the breakaway republic of South Ossetia”. As a contributor to this blog, I want to answer Mr. Johnson’s guilt-by-association allegation. I personally have no use for "intelligent design" or other claims against evolution, but one would search Russia Blog's website in vain for any mention of this topic. And Mr. Johnson's characterization of “Russia’s brutal assault on the breakaway republic of South Ossetia” gets it exactly backwards. Chronology is the key: it tells you here, as it so often does (in evolution as well) what is actually happening.
Continue reading "War in Georgia: August 9, 2008 War in Georgia:
Yawns and Kneejerks in America
Yesterday, after Russia sent reinforcements to back up its peacekeepers under seige by the Georgian army in the tiny disputed territory of South Ossetia, Arizona Senator and Republican Presidential candidate John McCain denounced the move as "Russian aggression" against Georgia. Nevermind that it was the Georgian army which launched the offensive that ignited the present round of fighting, and thousands of refugees have been streaming out of South Ossetia into Russia in the last few days. The reported death toll of over 1,400 is the worst the region has seen since 1992. In that year, the Soviet Union was formally dissolved, and South Ossetia and Abkhazia, both regions with strong ethnic ties to compatriots in Russia, were ceded to Georgia within their Soviet-drawn borders. After the U.S. and NATO countries recognized the independence of Kosovo in early 2008, the South Ossetians and Abkhazians decided that they could declare their independence from Georgia, which has sparked the recent violence. UPDATE - August 10, 2008 Welcome, Instapundit and Little Green Footballs readers! Please click here to read Russia Blog contributor Patrick Armstrong's excellent post responding to LGF blogger Charles Johnson. Click on the extended post to read the author's response to some of the questions and comments written elsewhere about this post.
Continue reading "War in Georgia: August 8, 2008 War in Georgia?
Caucasus Violence Took Europe by Surprise Follow news of the Russia-Georgia conflict as its develops with the Newswire headlines on the top left side of this website.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin: "War has started after a well-planned invasion." Putin appealed to world leaders for help. Spokesman for President George W. Bush: "Russia and Georgia should cease hostilities and hold talks to end the conflict." Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili: "Most decision makers have gone for the holidays. Brilliant moment to attack a small country."
If Saakashvili and his advisors believe that being a strong U.S. ally means that they have a "green light" from Washington for these rash moves, they are sorely mistaken. A few hours after the fighting started, President Bush and Prime Minister Putin were discussing the crisis face to face at the Olympics.
Continue reading "War in Georgia? August 7, 2008 Russian Federation Situation Report
August 7, 2008
Solzhenitsyn. Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, a man of unshakeable integrity and courage, who did more to kill Soviet Communism than anyone else, died on Sunday. His body lay in state at the Academy of Sciences and Putin and Gorbachev paid their respects. He was buried yesterday at the Dmitriy Donskoy Monastery in Moscow and Medvedev attended. Lately he had begun to sound rather out-of-date but I suspect his influence will endure for many years. Corruption. Medvedev signed his national anti-corruption plan and the Russian text is up on his website. A number of laws and amendments are expected to go to the Duma next month. Some features are restrictions and regulations for disposal of state assets and a provision by which companies can be responsible for the corrupt actions of employees. Speaking of which, the labor in the Augean Stables continues: so far this year, the military prosecution office says that five generals have been found guilty on corruption charges and the Investigative Committee states that 757 criminal cases have been opened against legal officials.
Continue reading "Russian Federation Situation Report August 5, 2008 Alexander Solzhenitsyn, Age 89, Passes Away
Yesterday The New York Times and National Review offered contrasting profiles of the great Russian dissident and writer, who passed away at his home outside Moscow on Sunday. Russian Orthodox funeral services will be held tomorrow at the Dimitri Donskoy Monastery in Moscow, where Solzhenitsyn requested to be buried. The Donskoi necropolis houses the tombs of many prominent families and liberal scholars from 19th century Russia, the graves of Red Army soldiers who died defending Moscow from the invading Nazis, and anonymous victims of the NKVD buried by the Church. Solzhenitsyn, who fought his way into East Prussia in 1944-45 as a Red Army artillery officer, wanted to be buried close to his comrades. Continue reading "Alexander Solzhenitsyn, Age 89, Passes Away" » August 4, 2008 Alexander Solzhenitsyn, A Great Russian Soul
One writer among the Soviet dissidents did the most to force Western awareness of the true nature of the Communist regime during our complacent years of the Sixties and Seventies. He was the same writer who did a huge service to the West in 1978 when, accepting an honorary degree at Harvard, he had the courage to tell the truth about Western materialism and spiritual decay. Solzhenitsyn was sage yet again in his characterization of the Russian Federation in recent years. He was a stern but enormously good prophet. Solzhenitsyn's last interview, with Der Spiegel, was discussed on Russia Blog just a year ago. Alexander Solzhenitsyn's death at 89 was just announced. Solzhenitsyn broke taboos, shook Soviet empire (by Associated Press) July 31, 2008 Russian Federation Situation Report
July 31, 2008
The Duumvirate. I regard The Economist as a generally worthless commentator on Russia, useful only because it is a reliable guide to the “mean sea level” of conventional opinion. In its 6-12 October 2007 issue, it was confident “It has always been a question of how, not if, Vladimir Putin would retain power”. Now it’s not so sure: maybe Medvedev is in charge. Its latest piece (Johnson's Russia List/2008/130/6) finally understands that Putin could have amended the Constitution easily and run for a third term. The point is not that The Economist has become any more thoughtful but that its change of mind is an indication that conventional opinion is coming around to the idea that maybe the whole thing wasn’t, as the October 2007 headline read, “Vladimir Putin: The Never-Ending Presidency”. Revisiting my five hypotheses, I am coming to think that the choice is now between Numbers 4 and 5: I never thought 1 and 2 very likely and 3 is certainly dead. For what it’s worth, but presumably signalling new tactics if not a new strategy, there has been criticism of some of Putin’s legacies appearing in the Russian press.
Continue reading "Russian Federation Situation Report July 24, 2008 Obama in Berlin: Soothing to the Russian Ear
"In this century -- in this city of all cities -- we must reject the Cold War mind-set of the past, and resolve to work with Russia when we can, to stand up for our values when we must, and to seek a partnership that extends across this entire continent." -- Barack Obama, Berlin, Germany Some say that Senator Barack Obama has little international experience and will have problems building bridges with leaders of foreign nations. However, today, Obama hit the bullseye on issues relevant to the world’s biggest oil producer, one of its top military powers, and, simply put, the largest country in the world - Russia. Some experts on the Republican side who are familiar with the matter say that Obama might have a strong advantage over his GOP rival, Senator John McCain, as many world leaders would be more open to dialogue with a young charismatic president, rather than an old and experienced “Cold Warrior.” While Russians and Europeans embrace Obama’s rhetoric, it is unclear how American voters will react to the international course taken by the presidential candidate. “John McCain cannot win, but Obama can lose,” said Senator Slade Gorton today during his lecture at the Discovery Institute in Seattle, Washington.
Watch the video of Senator Obama's Berlin speech, and visit the extended post to read the text of the American presidential candidate's speech in Berlin. Continue reading "Obama in Berlin: Soothing to the Russian Ear" » July 22, 2008 Bloomberg:
Putin to Meet Bush in Beijing After Missile Warning By Henry Meyer and Sebastian Alison
July 21 (Bloomberg) -- Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will meet U.S. President George W. Bush next month after Russia warned it would respond militarily to U.S. plans to deploy a missile-defense system in eastern Europe. Putin will hold talks with Bush on the sidelines of the Olympic Games' opening ceremonies in Beijing, the Russian prime minister's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said today by telephone in Moscow. The Olympics will open on Aug. 8. Russia may send military aircraft back to bases in Cuba in response to the U.S. missile-defense plans, Izvestiya reported today, citing an unidentified ``highly placed source.'' The government said on July 8 that it would react with ``military- technical'' means to the U.S. system, which it said threatens Russia's security. Russian leaders threatened to aim nuclear missiles at the planned bases in the Czech Republic and Poland.
Continue reading "Bloomberg: July 3, 2008 Russian Federation Situation Report
July 3, 2008
Corruption et al. Medvedev mused that some provision should be made for transferring assets held by civil servants into trusts and said a first draft of a national plan for combating corruption has appeared. A presidential aide suggested that “independent directors” might replace state officials in some state-owned companies. Of course if that turns out to be a way of letting former members of Putin’s administration keep these lucrative positions… I can understand why you would want to place government officials in these important companies (remember Gazprom under Yeltsin?) but the problem then becomes: where do their interests now lie? Balance in government. A Levada poll shows a probably important change in political reality. For years opinion polls have ranked the president distinctly higher than the PM or government. This was so even in the Yeltsin era (although all at very low levels in the latter years). What this poll shows is that Putin’s presence has pulled the government rating up: in the 40s through most of his presidency, it is now in the 60s. At the same time his public approval rating remains in the 80s and Medvedev’s is in the 70s. If this trend holds – and why shouldn’t it? – Russia’s political structure will be much better balanced than it has been. Further evidence, to my mind, of my fifth hypothesis.
Continue reading "Russian Federation Situation Report June 26, 2008 Next Time... Spain Defeats Russia 3:0
The Spanish team showed admirable professionalism and fully deserved to go on to the final against Germany. Nearly twenty unscheduled flights with fans left Moscow for Vienna this morning. Russia lost, but there are no bad feelings towards the squad or its Dutch coach. A young Russian team looked tired and overmatched, but it achieved something that no one could have dreamed of just two weeks ago, and the country is proud of its players for reaching the semi-finals of the European championship. Tonight fireworks can be heard in major Russian cities, but there were no riots by upset fans. Many Russian families went to bed around 2 a.m. Moscow time with the full understanding that today their team faced highly experienced professionals - and it will compete at the highest levels again very soon. Heavy rain and thunderstorms made the game hard on both teams, but it did not interrupt the satellite broadcast (as it happened yesterday during the game between Germany and Turkey). CNN: Spain beats Russia 3-0 to reach final vs. Germany
June 25, 2008 Semi-Finals Euro 2008: Russia vs. Spain
2:30 PM EST, 11:30 AM PST
Don’t miss this historic game! This is the first time that a Russian (not Soviet) team has made it to the European quarter-finals and then semi-finals. Previously, no Russian team made it past the qualifying round of the Euro soccer tournament. Now, after conquering the previously undefeated Dutch team, the Russian squad, led by a Dutch coach, will play Spain in Vienna. The Russian parliament may advise Russian vendors to avoid sales of alcohol the day of the game. Even though such suggestion is not a law, many businesses will most likely listen to it, because the profits to be made from alcohol sales cannot compare with the losses suffered from damage caused by rowdy fans. Last Saturday to Sunday night (June 21-22, 2008), Moscow became the scene of the largest Russian public demonstration since victory day in World War II. The spontaneous celebrations in the city streets were peaceful and continued until 8 a.m. We wish luck to the Russian team! June 23, 2008 Russia Advances for Showdown with Spain
This past Saturday, another example of Russia's global resurgence was exhibited on the soccer pitch in Basel, Switzerland, in a thrilling quarter-final match between Russia and a highly thought of Dutch squad, at the European 2008 men's soccer tournament ("Euro '08").
Playing inspired soccer from the start, Russia had several scoring opportunities. After a scoreless first half, Roman Pavlyuchenko connected for Russia's first goal (so far, Pavlyuchernko is Russia's leading scorer in the tournament). Later on in the second half, the Dutch answered with a well executed header from Ruud Van Nistelrooy. After a 1-1 tie in regulation time, the two sides played to a scoreless first half of extra time. In the second half of extra time, Dmitri Torbinsky and Andrei Arshavin scored to ice the game for Russia.
Continue reading "Russia Advances for Showdown with Spain " » June 20, 2008 Holland-Russia Soccer Game to be Nationally Televised in the U.S.
Throughout history, Russia has shown a willingness to utilize non-Russian know-how for greater advancement. As a case in point, Peter the Great studied shipbuilding in Holland and England, to enhance Russia's maritime status. In 2006, Dutchman Guus Hiddink was hired to coach the Russian men's national soccer team. Continue reading "Holland-Russia Soccer Game to be Nationally Televised in the U.S." » June 19, 2008 Russian Federation Situation Report
June 19, 2008
A Note on Filling the Page. Today is the 490th Thursday that I have done a Sitrep. I have always been able to fill a page, some days more easily than others. This is the hardest I’ve worked to do so. For some years, we have been living with the “Russian Question”. One day, it, like the “Eastern Question” or the “German Question”, will pass and there won’t be enough happening to warrant weekly Sitreps. While that day is not here, we are, perhaps, closer to the desired end when Russia ceases to be a “Question” (with, FAR less bloodshed than the other two were settled, by the way, and far less than predicted by anyone). A “normal” Russia: one with which other countries may have trade disputes or strategic disagreements but will be confident that they can be settled “inside the box”. It’s a mixture of perception and reality: the latter changing much faster than the former. Russian Tourism. A result of the growing prosperity of the Putin years has been a steady increase in tourism by Russians. 15 years ago the fear was millions of refugees; ten years ago thousands of criminals; the reality has become ordinary Russians on holiday. I have noticed this for some time but last year in the Mediterranean it was interesting to see that there are now enough of them to justify guidebooks in Russian everywhere and we often had a Russian couple beside us in a cafe. This Russia Blog post discusses the phenomenon. To my mind, the relative absence of such pieces in the mainstream media (although see JRL/2008/116/2) is a product of the meme that Russia is locked down by Putin and his Chekist minions. But, as Stalin understood, to really lock a country down, you can’t let people out and you can’t let people in. Perception and reality again.
Continue reading "Russian Federation Situation Report June 12, 2008 Russian Federation Situation Report
June 12, 2008
Medvedev's St Petersburg speech. In his speech opening the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum Medvedev said he wants to turn Moscow into a “powerful global financial center”; well, to do so would require a substantial reduction of corruption, criminality and opacity. He spoke of liberalizing the natural gas market and reducing taxes on the oil sector. He also spoke of helping to overcome the global food crisis (but how? more Russian wheat?). He took some shots at the USA’s financial policies and mused about how the UN or some other global entity could do a better job. For the rest of the speech he tried to present a picture of Russia as a prosperous (1st Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov the following day said Russia would become the 6th largest economy by the end of the year), important and responsible participant in the world economy.
Continue reading "Russian Federation Situation Report June 10, 2008 Russian Travel (Made Easy)
Finally! Sheremetyevo Gets Connected to Downtown Moscow via High-Speed Rail
Sheremetyevo (Terminals 1, 2 and C) is Moscow’s major international airport. The one to five hour drive that could be never predicted or estimated by Moscow drivers is finally unnecessary, once and for all. The airport welcomed the first high-speed express-train that departed from Savyolovskaya subway station and train station today (June 10, 2008). The opening ceremonial trip was just a trial and took longer than promised on the way from the airport for multiple safety checks. The railroad opens tomorrow (June 11, 2008) for regular operation. Dear foreigners and Moscow visitors, please, do not be fooled anymore by taxi drivers offering 100-200 euro cab rides to downtown, and read on. The trains travel at 75 miles-an-hour with the capacity to go much faster. The Russian Railroads promises the 100 miles-an-hour travel to begin soon. Now it takes only 35 minutes and 250 rubles ($10) to get to the Sheremetyevo airport; 300 rubles ($12) for a business class car. While Sheremetyevo's Terminal 2 is connected to train station by a walkway, the shuttle-buses for Terminals 1 and C are available for 40 rubles ($1.60). Sheremetyevo was the last airport, after Domodedovo and Vnukovo, to receive its own railroad. It costs $6 to get to downtown Moscow from Domodedovo airport (train stops at Paveletskaya subway station and train station), and $4 to get to Moscow from Vnukovo airport (train stops at Kievskaya subway station and train station). Furthermore, you can register for your flight and check in your luggage at the train station just an hour and a half prior to your flight departure, take the thirty-minute train ride, and step on a plane. Enjoy the express-trains and welcome to Moscow! View large map of Moscow Subway Map (2007 version) in English June 7, 2008 Medvedev Blames U.S. for Global Financial Crisis
Reuters Reports
ST PETERSBURG, Russia -- Russian President Dmitry Medvedev blamed "aggressive" United States policies on Saturday for the global financial crisis and said Moscow's growing economic muscle could be part of the solution. "Failure by the biggest financial firms in the world to adequately take risk into account, coupled with the aggressive financial policies of the biggest economy in the world, have led not only to corporate losses," Medvedev told Russia's main annual event for international investors in St Petersburg. "Most people on the planet have become poorer."
Continue reading "Medvedev Blames U.S. for Global Financial Crisis June 5, 2008 Russian Federation Situation Report
June 5, 2008
Medvedev in Germany. The conversation appears to have been mostly about gas pipelines but Medvedev expressed concern about the “increasing gap between Russia and the West” on security issues and reiterated his intentions to effect a “qualitative transformation” of Russia. Putin Interview. When he was in France, Putin gave an interview (English summary, Russian) to Le Monde. As usual, it’s a straightforward unemotional statement of his views on present and past. It’s a “one stop shopping” trip for Putin’s view of things. The English summary above leaves out his remarks on Abkhazia where he, once again, attempted to educate a Western audience that the problem has deep roots that cannot be wished away.
Continue reading "Russian Federation Situation Report June 2, 2008 Russia & the West: New Leadership. New Relations?
This document was distributed at the Eurasian Media Forum in Almaty, Kazakhstan and at the World Russian Forum in Washington, D.C. in April and May 2008. Please, upload the printable color PDF version here. Please, visit the extended post to see the text version of the publication. Continue reading "Russia & the West: New Leadership. New Relations?" » May 30, 2008 Canada vs. Russia:
Russia Takes Hockey World Title on May 18, 2008
Russia won World Hockey Championship for the first time since 1993 on May 18, 2008. The victory was overlooked by many in the United States due to local sports activities and also due to the fact that Russia has won too many competitions in May 2008; UEFA (soccer championship) on May 14, 2008, World Hockey Championship on May 18, 2008, and the Eurovision Music Contest on May 25, 2008. "Ilya Kovalchuk's power-play goal in overtime for the 5-4 win in Quebec City, Canada, came just before midnight, but that didn't stop fans from holding an impromptu parade in the city center, where many had watched the final in bars..." Please, visit the extended post to read the Moscow Times coverage of the event.
Continue reading "Canada vs. Russia: May 29, 2008 Russian Federation Situation Report
May 29, 2008
Medvedev visits. Medvedev made his first trip as president to Kazakhstan and China. Does this mean anything? Is it a statement of some sort? I don’t know. Many countries have a tradition that the new leader visits his neighbours first. Putin, on the other hand, is in France. Demographics. More signs that the situation is becoming less desperate: RosStat estimates the population as of 1 April to be 141.9 million. This is down 80,900 from the start of the year but this year’s decline is rather less than 1st quarter figures from previous years (118,200 in 2007 and 200,800 in 2006). I am amused to note that some , even in the mainstream media, have started to notice the turnaround (although others have not).
Continue reading "Russian Federation Situation Report May 28, 2008 Russian Federation Situation Report
May 22, 2008 The Editors apologize for delaying this publication (originally submitted on May 22, 2008).
Government. Putin has his new government. There are two 1st deputies: Viktor Zubkov and Igor Shuvalov (the latter will act for Putin in his absence); 5 Deputies: Sergey Sobyanin, Aleksandr Zhukov (a 1991 graduate of Harvard Business School who is fluent in English), Sergey Ivanov, Igor Sechin and Aleksey Kudrin. A “presidium” has been created of these plus the foreign, interior, defence, health and social development, agriculture and regional development ministers. In short: deputies, power ministers and national project ministers. Sergey Shoygu remains Emergency Situations Minister: he has held this position since 1991(!), through everything, and is consistently one of the most popular leaders in the country. Speculation. The new government has sparked off effusions of neo-Kremlinology in which, as usual, commentators find evidence to support their pre-existing theories. I regard neo-Kremlinology as a waste of time for the following reasons. We do not yet know how the diumvirate will operate but their speeches all stress one thing: when Putin came to power I believe he saw his work in four main headings: tighten central control, improve the economy, improve Russia’s standing in the world and introduce “rule of law” (more a “rule of rules” I think). He was reasonably successful in the first three but there has been little progress in the fourth. It appears to be the chief emphasis of Medvedev and Putin today, at least in their speeches.
Continue reading "Russian Federation Situation Report May 18, 2008 World Russian Forum 2008
Don't miss the annual World Russian Forum. The 2008 Forum will be held at the US Capitol in Washington D.C. on May 19-20. Please, visit the Russia House website to find out more about the forum and register for the event. Also see the extended post for the event agenda. Yours truly, Yuri Mamchur, will be a speaker on the panel "Russian Diaspora in the U.S and Its Role in Bolstering U.S. - Russian Relations." "WORLD RUSSIAN FORUM 2008" May 9, 2008 Victory Day 2008
For most international observers, the big story of Victory Day 2008 in Moscow is the revival of the Soviet tradition of parading heavy military equipment through Red Square. For most Russians, however, today is a well deserved day off, and it will be the most beloved holiday on the national calendar before Christmas and New Years. Today, hundreds of thousands in Russia will be participating in public events across the country to thank surviving World War II veterans for their service, and to remember the millions who died to rid the world of Nazism. Click on the extended post to read more thoughts and watch more YouTube videos about Victory Day. May 8, 2008 Russia Federation Situation Report
May 8, 2008
President Medvedev. Yesterday Dmitriy Medvedev was sworn in as President (watch the video and the photos). His speech, almost all domestically focused, hit the themes of economic modernization, social security and “legal nihilism”. The tacit message was, as it has been, that continuity was assured. He did use the phrase “our great Russia” – it will be amusing to see how many news outlets focus their attention on that. Prime Minister Putin. Putin was confirmed today by the Duma (the Communists voted against him) and his speech too focussed on domestic matters: increasing the capital – in all senses of the word – of Russia. It is clear that Medvedev’s and Putin’s program is to concentrate on what might be termed qualitative improvements in Russia’s domestic situation. Of course, in this sinful world, external events can arise ex nihilo and dominate the conversation.
Continue reading "Russia Federation Situation Report May 6, 2008 Putin's Last Day As President...
And First Day as Prime Minister
Click on the extended post to watch another Russia Today TV video about the end of Mr. Putin's pivotal...and controversial...eight year term in the Russian presidency.
Continue reading "Putin's Last Day As President... Interview with Henry Kissinger on the
Future of U.S.-Russia Relations As U.S. Secretary of State from 1973 to 1977, Henry Kissinger negotiated arms control agreements between the USA and USSR and the establishment of diplomatic relations between America and mainland Communist China. In this video the elderly diplomat sits down for a twenty minute interview with Russia Today TV and describes his vision of U.S.-Russia relations in the 21st century. May 4, 2008 Russian Federation Weekly Situation Report
May 2, 2008
The transition. What seems to be happening is that governing powers – formerly almost all of which were concentrated in the Presidential Administration these past several years – are being reassigned. A draft law has appeared that will delegate some of the central government’s responsibilities to lower levels of government and some powers are apparently being shifted from the Presidential Administration to the government. Meanwhile there are personnel changes that look like some of Putin’s people moving over the government side to be ready for his arrival. I reiterate that it is still too early to know what The Plan is, but all this seems to support the hypothesis that Putin (and company) are setting up a certain division of powers between the Presidential Administration and the government. If (and this is a big if) this works in practice, it would be a good step: separation of powers is one of the secrets of successful governments. Peak Oil? Or High Taxes?. Two weeks ago I quoted a Russian oil executive saying that Russian production had peaked; this week the CEO of Gazprom Neft says that he expects Russian production to continue to increase until the middle of the century (assuming that the industry gets the tax structure he thinks it ought to have).
Continue reading "Russian Federation Weekly Situation Report April 28, 2008 Russian Federation Weekly Situation Report
April 24 2008
DEMOGRAPHICS. The demographic picture in Russia continues to improve: RosStat claims 273,700 births in January and February (up 12.8% over the previous year) and 368,200 deaths (up 4.1%). A bill to restrict abortion advertising has been proposed and a Duma deputy gave some numbers here: in 2006 there were one and a half million abortions (40.3 per 1000 women) in Russia, down from the two million in 2002 (54.2 per 1000 women). So, this statistical evidence suggests that the various pro-natalist programs are having an effect. We don’t know yet, of course, whether the programs actually are leading to more children, or just encouraging Russian women to have their babies sooner. New data coming in over the next few years will tell us. INVESTIGATIVE COMMITTEE. More trouble. The head of the main investigative unit was fired; corruption being given as the reason. The usual rumors abound.
Continue reading "Russian Federation Weekly Situation Report April 24, 2008 Eurasian Media Forum 2008
Almaty, Kazakhstan
Currently I am in Almaty, Kazakhstan at the Eurasian Media Forum 2008. Today, I participated in the panel addressing the perceptions of the the Western media in its coverage of Russia, and the possibility of the return of the Cold War. The Eurasian Media Forum has gathered 600 distinguished participants, such as, President Nursultan Nazarbayev, his daughter Dr. Dariga Nazarbaeva, Mr. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Dr. Ariel Cohen of the Heritage Foundation, Mikhail Leontiev from "Odnako", Margarita Simonyan and Kevin Owen from Russia Today TV, multiple ambassadors, ministers, journalists, reporters and policy makers. Please, view the extended post for the full agenda of the conference, and come back soon to view the photos of the conference and to read the new RRP report on the Stereotypes that Western media practices in its coverage of Russia. The report was prepared for the Forum and is available in print to those at the venue.
Continue reading "Eurasian Media Forum 2008 April 17, 2008 Russia Weekly News - April 17, 2008
Putinology Outgoing Russian President Vladimir Putin is now Chairman of United Russia, the political structure (I’m not sure I would call it a real “party”) that dominates Russia. But, oddly enough, he hasn’t formally become a member. While we still can’t be sure what Putin's Plan is, this would seem to point in the direction of my fifth hypothesis. He also apparently said he would become the Prime Minister of Russia if (!) asked. The next five or eight months will tell us more about what he has in mind. Peak Oil?. The Financial Times quotes a vice president of LUKoil as saying that Russian oil production has peaked this year. Maybe so, but the End of Oil has been predicted many times and historically, this has been a bad bet. I believe that the first prediction that the world would run out is over a century old and the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency famously predicted in the 1980s that Soviet production had peaked. Post Soviet Russia, separated from oil rich republics like Kazahkstan and Azerbaijan, briefly surpassed Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer in 2006. April 10, 2008 Russia Weekly News - April 10, 2008
Bush-Putin Meeting. Contrary to expectations, there appears to have been no breakthrough on the contentious issues of NATO expansion or missile defense at the Russian President's retreat in Sochi. Hubris and the Limits of Russia's Revival. There is no doubt that Putin’s two terms have been remarkably successful: eight years ago, many observers were ready to write Russia off completely (examples here, here, and here) and Putin (with some help from higher world commodity prices) has managed to improve Russia's leading economic and social indicators. But nevertheless Russia is not really very strong: its GDP is still somewhere around the same as Canada’s (even with four or five times the population); poverty is widespread; Russian infrastructure is inadequate; corruption is omnipresent; its economic importance is principally as an energy supplier; its armed forces, though large, are not very competitive; it has no real allies; and most of its neighbours would prefer it to be located somewhere else. April 7, 2008 Bush and Putin's Final Joint Press Conference
Click here to watch a video of the whole press conference translated into English. April 3, 2008 Russia: Weekly News - April 3, 2008
NATO Expansion. Ukraine and Georgia were not offered a path to NATO membership - yet. People like to say that “Moscow has no veto on NATO membership”. This has always struck me as fatuous: who says that it has one? It also implies that NATO’s purpose is to do the opposite of what Moscow wants. Which is a rather foolish modus operandi. If NATO has any purpose, it is surely to ensure the security of its members. That security will not be increased by treating Russia as an enemy. US-Russia Relations. The atmospherics continue to sound good; Putin’s press secretary is hinting that some sort of document will be signed when Bush and Putin (and the next Russian President, Dimitry Medvedev, apparently) meet in Sochi on Sunday, other sources say that some over-arching deal is in the works. We’ll see: the principals have said nice things before but their bureaucracies don’t seem to make things happen. April 2, 2008 Russia Today Interviews CSIS's Andrew Kuchins
On the Upcoming Bush-Putin Summit in Sochi
March 27, 2008 News Clips from Russia - March 27, 2008
U.S.-RUSSIA RELATIONS The atmosphere seems to have improved in recent weeks. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Washington offered “confidence-building measures” which will apparently allow the Russians to inspect, in some manner not specified, American missile defense installations in Europe to assure Moscow that the system will not be directed against Russia. Bush and Putin are to meet next week in the Russian resort of Sochi after the NATO meeting and we will no doubt learn more then. Continue reading "News Clips from Russia - March 27, 2008" » March 20, 2008 Russia: Weekly News - March 20, 2008
US-Russian talks. The US foreign and defence ministers were in Moscow this week for talks mostly about the missiles and radars the US wants to put into Eastern Europe. There is much speculation about what happened but the atmosphere seems to have been good. Yavlinskiy and Yabloko. Lots of rumours. First the arrest of Maksim Reznik in St Petersburg and other pressures against the party. Rumours I have heard: March 13, 2008 Russia: Weekly News - March 13, 2008
The plan unfolds. My current take on the possibilities for the future division of power in Russia is here but it’s still too early to place bets. But a few tiny indications of my fifth hypothesis are floating around at the moment. The political problem with Russia is that it is still a one-man band; a band which all true lovers of power earnestly seek to join. Putin himself has spoken about how United Russia “needs rejuvenation and reorganisation” and of its other deficiencies. There has been some speculation lately that he and Medvedev are trying to create a “loyal opposition” (a phrase, by the way, that is perfectly meaningful in Westminster-system countries). He and Medvedev met with Duma leaders (including Yavlinskiy interestingly, who, while not in the Duma, is the leader of the oldest liberal party) and apparently spoke about this. There is a story that Putin tried to get Yavlinskiy to unite with the other liberals two elections ago but he wouldn’t. The opposition in Russia today is stunt groupings like Other Russia (and its NatBol friends), the geriatric communist party or Zhirinovskiy’s personal vehicle. France, Russia and the EU
From the World Politics Review Blog
I haven't been able to find English-language coverage of this, so all I've got is this Le Monde article. But it's worth mentioning because it looks to me like a potential sea change waiting to happen. Two days ago, Russia's Foreign and Defense Ministers came to Paris for annual bi-lateral talks. The meeting resulted in a solid agreement from Russia to contribute 6-8 helicopters to the EUFOR Chad mission, as well as a potential accord with NATO to lift restrictions on logistical shipments bound for Afghanistan through Russian territory, which had been limited to non-military supplies. March 6, 2008 Russia: Weekly News from Patrick Armstrong
March 6, 2008 By Patrick Armstrong
Election. As everyone expected, Medvedev won handily receiving in the seventies on a turnout in the high sixties. There are the usual reports of ballot-stuffing and some improbable results from the North Caucasus (but nothing quite as bad as in the Duma elections). But, there can be no doubt that Medvedev represents the popular choice. And no surprise: after the ups and downs of the last couple of decades, Russians want peace and quiet and more money in their pockets. That is what Medvedev/Putin promise. Continuity and stability. If there has been one theme of Putin’s and Medvedev’s recent speeches, it is “stay calm, nothing will change, the same team will be in place carrying out the same program”. There was a good deal of speculation about interest groups fighting “under the rug” over the succession but, thus far, it has been very smooth, thanks one assumes to Putin’s actions. We will see what the next steps in The Plan are.
Continue reading "Russia: Weekly News from Patrick Armstrong March 2, 2008 Real Russia Project on Russia Today
Live Commentary on Russian Presidential Elections
Please tune into Russia Today television to watch Real Russia Project Director Yuri Mamchur’s live commentary on the Russian presidential elections. The coverage will be broadcast from Russia Today's New York studio on Sunday, March 2, at 6 pm EST (3 pm PST, 2 am, March 3 - Moscow time).
February 28, 2008 Presidential Debates Russian-Style:
Get the Hell Out of the Studio! Scoundrel. I’ll Rip Your Head Off!
Presidential candidate Vladimir Zhirinovsky about presidential candidate Andrey Bogdanov: “He’s a scoundrel. Look at his face! The guy’s sick! A typical schizoid! Any psychiatrist will tell you, the guy is a wacko…” Vladimir Zhirinovsky to Andrey Bogdanov’s representative: “Get the hell out of the studio! Scoundrel. I’ll rip your head off. A professor, my foot! Idiot!” Vladimir Zhirinovsky to his bodyguard: “What are you looking at? Take him out, and shoot the scoundrel in the hallway!”
Russian viewers were left with three debaters: Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov, famous leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia Vladimir Zhirinovsky, and the independent liberal candidate Andrey Bogdanov. Last weekend was definitely the high point of the debates. The most interesting episode took place when the debaters thought the cameras were off… Russia: Weekly News from Patrick Armstrong
February 28, 2008 By Patrick Armstrong
ELECTION: I confidently predict that Medvedev will win big and that the OSCE & Co will condemn the election for unbalanced media coverage (something that apparently makes a vital difference in Russia but not in Georgia) and the CIS observers will OK it. Each group has already written its assessment. MIDDLE CLASS: The big Russian insurance company RosGosStrakh has a report out saying that the Russian middle class has grown greatly. This entity it defines as a monthly income per family member between US$500 and US$3000. Rather a large spread and not particularly big numbers but a huge improvement on the pre-Putin state of affairs. It is quite simply facts like this, and not TV coverage or any of the things that so exercise Western commentators, that will lead Russians on Sunday to vote for more of the same.
Continue reading "Russia: Weekly News from Patrick Armstrong February 27, 2008 Medeved ... Medved ... Whatever
Maybe it would help to know the name of the next president of the largest country in the world…
By Blake Hounshell During Tuesday evening's debate, neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama seemed especially comfortable discussing Russia's heir apparent, Dmitry Medvedev. You could tell from the impish delight with which moderator Tim Russert sprang his surprise question -- "What can you tell me about the man who's going to be Mr. Putin's successor?" -- that a revealing exchange would follow. First, Sen. Clinton correctly noted that "he's a hand-picked successor... who is obviously being installed by Putin." Then, she weighed in on the side of Russia analysts who view Medvedev as little more than Vladimir Putin's puppet, characterizing the former as having "very little independence" (some experts say the jury's still out on this). She concluded, "I have no doubt, as president, even though technically the meetings may be with the man who is labeled as president, the decisions will be made by Putin." (Again, an open question.) February 26, 2008 Putin’s Iron Grip on Russia Suffocates Opponents
NYT Article Brings Sharp Responses From Russians
Last weekend, The New York Times published another piece of amazing anti-Russian propaganda. “…the city’s children, too, were pressed into service. At schools, teachers gave them pamphlets promoting “Putin’s Plan”…” Those who have been to Russia in the last decade drop the newspaper either with laughter or with anger. One of the Real Russia Project's advisors explained his bewilderment upon reading the article: “If you know where I am coming from, you know I see little merit in the article. I do wonder who paid Levy to write such a fanciful piece. It doesn't explain Putin's 85% approval rating in the polls - not the marks of a despot, nor of a person whose followers need to go to the lengths described in the article to shore up support. I have been to Nizhny Novgorod; it is one of the most dynamic regions of Russia. I am going to forward the article to two friends working in Nizhny that I spent time with in the past several months - one Russian, and one an expat who has lived there since 1994. I expect that their comments would be consistent with hundreds of Russians I talked with on four trips this past year - it is silly to think that people need to be cajoled into supporting Putin, or Medvedev, for that matter." Unlike most Chinese citizens, Russians enjoy unfettered access to free media online, and their response to the NYT was overwhelming in the first hours after the publication appeared on the Russian internet (or .ru-net). Many Russians took advantage of their access to uncensored Internet, free media, and uncontrolled blogging platforms to express their personal opinions and to prove the NYT wrong. A few Russian commenters agreed with the article's viewpoint - but if anything, this should only prove the NYT to be even more wrong, as according to the slant of most Western reporting in the last several years, Russians are not supposed to have access to free media, nor be able to express their personal opinions under the “iron grip” of President Putin… February 25, 2008 Real Russia Project on Russia Today TV
Discussing the Upcoming Presidential Elections
Yuri Mamchur discussed the upcoming Russian and American presidential elections on Russia Today TV today, February 25, at 12:55 pm PST (3:55 pm EST, 11:55 pm Moscow time). Visit the Russia Today website or follow the link below the picture to watch the interview.
February 23, 2008 Russian Federation and CIS Weekly News
February 23, 2008 By Patrick Armstrong
CORRUPTION AND STATE CORPORATIONS. Yevgeny Adamov, the atomic energy minister from 1998 to 2001, was convicted by a Moscow court of embezzlement during his term and sentenced to 5½ years. This raises the issue of corruption at the highest levels. In his final press conference Putin was asked which of Russia’s problems had he found the most wearying and difficult to resolve; “corruption”, he immediately answered. Very true: corruption, all the way from the oligarch acquisitions to rapacious traffic police, gums up everything in Russia. And some things have been done about it, although one can suspect that they are rather selective. But I’m not sure that blurring the distinction between say, a 1st Deputy PM and the Chairman of the Board of one of the world’s largest companies is the right way to fight it, although I can see why such a thing might have been thought the only way to get a grip on the company. But, to me, the problem is: from where do these government officials on state boards receive the larger remuneration? In his press conference, Putin explained that he believed state corporations to be necessary “when there is a need for major long-term investments that private business is not yet ready to incur” but that the time would come when this was no longer the case and “we will gradually list these companies on the stock market and make them part of a market economy”. Something to watch in the transition is whether these state company positions remain with the individual or the office. The only indication so far is that Medvedev has said he will give up the Gazprom position. Click on the extended post to read more.
Continue reading "Russian Federation and CIS Weekly News February 21, 2008 Russians for Obama
The American presidential elections receive excellent coverage in the Russian media. While Russian journalists rarely offer commentary about the U.S. candidates, straight news reporting of the American presidential campaign is done in exhaustive, overwhelming detail. Not to be outdone, Russia Blog just completed its own humble, non-scientific poll. The goal? Determine which U.S. presidential candidate Russians prefer as the next occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. After presenting the question to nearly 50 Russians, the answer is clear: one hundred percent of our not-so-random sampling said Senator Barack Obama is their first choice. Huh? Up is down and down is up, at least if you believe conventional wisdom. Why would the Russians, stereotypically considered to be a racist and conservative nation, pick Senator Obama—the first viable black U.S. presidential candidate, and the one who many Americans agree breaks the traditional U.S. presidential mold on many levels? February 15, 2008 Putin Slams Clinton, McCain
Says that Hillary Clinton Has No Head
"At a minimum, a head of state should have a head," - Vladimir Putin During impromptu remarks in New Hampshire on January 6, 2008, former first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton joked that Russian President Vladimir Putin, as a former KGB agent, "by definition doesn't have a soul." Also using Mr. Putin as a punchline on the campaign trail, the current frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, Senator John McCain, has frequently said, "I looked into his eyes and saw three letters: a K, a G and a B." Both Senators' jokes are references to a famous statement delivered by President Bush in 2001, after his first summit with President Putin in Slovenia, that "I looked the man in the eye...I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy. We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul." Yesterday President Putin decided to hit back at his critics on the U.S. presidential campaign trail. During a four hour-long press conference at the Kremlin, Putin observed sarcastically that, "a state official must at least have brains." Click on the extended post to read more news from the press conference.
Continue reading "Putin Slams Clinton, McCain February 8, 2008 Dyagilev Club Burns to the Ground
The most exclusive club in Moscow, Dyagilev, burned down on February 7, 2008. No one died, but three people were hospitalized with serious injuries. One of the injured sustained serious burns, while two others suffered from smoke inhalation. Overall, the rescue effort lead by Moscow firefighters was impressive, as a facility filled with 1,500 drunk people was promptly evacuated at the break of dawn. The roof of the Diagilev club collapsed during the blaze. A rescue helicopter was scrambled to fight the fire with multiple ambulances and fire trucks also arriving on the scene. The fire, which spread over 15,000 square feet, was put out. Neighboring buildings were also evacuated. The Diagilev Project was known to be the most lavish and high-profile spot for international celebrities, corporate executives, and the clubbing elite in Russia. Famous U.S. comedic actor Jim Carey, Brazilian soccer superstar Ronaldo, and former world heavyweight champion boxer Mike Tyson used to stop by the club. The Chinese Embassy was planning to hold a New Year’s party (Chinese Year of Rat) at Dyagilev the night after the fire. The club did not serve beer, and many Russian stars were unable to pass through the notorious face-control; reserving a private booth could cost as much as $40,000. Time magazine devoted three full pages to the club in a recent issue that proclaimed Russian President Vladimir Putin as Man of the Year. Click on the extended post to read more. February 5, 2008 Russia Sees Baby Boom in 2007
The First One in 15 Years
Something must be going right in Russia's economy and society. A significant increase in the birth rate of a country is only possible when more people have faith in their incomes and hope for the future. Some demographic experts attribute the recent growth in births to President Putin’s policy of making payments to Russian mothers, while others think that it’s just a coincidence. On Friday the Kansas Times newspaper quoted the Russian Health and Social Development minister's happy announcement. According to new government statistics, last year the Russian Federation witnessed the highest number of children born since the collapse of the Soviet Union fifteen years ago.
Continue reading "Russia Sees Baby Boom in 2007 February 2, 2008 Russia's Glamorous Female Bodyguard Killed As Her Porsche Is Carjacked in Moscow
Russia's most famous female bodyguard Anna Loginova has been killed after failing to prevent her own Porsche from being carjacked. The glamorous 29-year-old died from head injuries after clinging to the door handle of the Cheyenne and being dragged along the street at high speed as the car screeched away. "She suffered serious injuries and died at the scene," said a police spokesman. Police believe that she was killed in a random carjacking and was not the victim of an attack based on her work for wealthy high-profile Russian clients. January 15, 2008 Russia? Think Beyond Moscow!
Discovery Institute Event in Seattle Featuring Bill Robinson
Continue reading "Russia? Think Beyond Moscow! January 7, 2008 S Rozdestvom Khristovym!
С РОЖДЕСТВОМ ХРИСТОВЫМ!
January 4, 2008 U.S. Presidential Candidates Views on Russia
As 2007 drew to a close, U.S.-Russian relations remained troubled on a number of fronts, especially policy toward Iran, the expansion of NATO, and Kosovo's status. Russian President Vladimir Putin has firmly opposed President Bush's plan to build a missile defense shield in the Czech Republic and Poland and has signaled changes to an important post-Soviet arms pact. Russia has also been critical of U.S. attempts to ratchet up pressure on Iran to halt its nuclear program; in October 2007 Putin likened the Bush administration's posture toward Iran to "a madman with a razor blade" (al-Jazeera). Putin's increasingly anti-democratic moves have also raised alarm among both Republican and Democratic policymakers in Washington. At the same time, top officials and candidates from both parties have stressed the importance of engaging Russia on matters of strategic importance, in particular securing Russia's vast stocks of nuclear materials, to avoid proliferation to rogue states or other groups. Click here to read the rest of the article at www.washingtonpost.com. Click on the extended post to read excerpts of select candidates views on U.S.-Russia relations. Continue reading "U.S. Presidential Candidates Views on Russia" » January 2, 2008 President Vladimir Putin's
New Year Address to the Russian Nation
Continue reading "President Vladimir Putin's January 1, 2008 Happy New Year!
С Новым Годом!
Today is New Year's Day, perhaps the most beloved family holiday on the Russian calendar. Today marks not only the beginning of the new year, but also of the extended holiday vacation season in Russia. Many Russians won't be returning to work until Monday, January 14. January 1, 2008 also will see the merger of two Russian oblasts, Ust-Orda Buryatia and Irkutsk Oblast, following the results of a 2006 regional referendum in Siberia. The Russian Federation will now go from having 85 federal regions to 84. From Russia Blog to our readers around the world, best wishes, health and happiness for the new year! December 22, 2007 Complete Video and Transcript of
Time’s Interview with Vladimir Putin
Continue reading "Complete Video and Transcript of December 19, 2007 Vladimir Putin - Person of the Year
Today Vladimir Putin was named the Person of the Year by Time magazine. Our readers can find multiple articles about the Russian President by using the search engine of Russia Blog (to your left) or by simply scrolling through the archives and categories of this website. Please visit the extended post to read Time's transcript of an interview with President Putin and to access links to the related video interview with President Putin at his private residence (highly recommended!), Time's photo essay of modern Moscow, Time's video of the Russian country-side and more. Russia Blog congratulates Mr. Putin for the nomination and encourages our readers to get acquainted with Time magazine's materials on the topic.
December 11, 2007 Speech by Dmitri A. Medvedev after His Endorsement by President Putin
First of all, I would like to give my thanks for the offer to participate in the elections for the president of Russia. This offer was given by United Russia, Just Russia, the Agrarian Party and the Civil Force party. I tie this to the necessity of continuing the implementation of the course our country has been moving along for eight years, the course chosen by the people during these years, the course which prevented the collapse of our economy and of the social sphere in our country, the course which prevented civil war, the course which is being conducted by President Putin. What is so dear for us today? Stability, improvement of the quality of life and the hope for durable and steady development. Education, health care, housing construction – we have managed to overcome the stagnation of the 1990s in these most important spheres of our life. First and yet incomplete results have appeared, our economy has strengthened considerably. We do not live in debt any more, but according to our means. The economy is growing at a pace higher than that of many developed countries. Continue reading "Speech by Dmitri A. Medvedev after His Endorsement by President Putin" » December 10, 2007 Putin Names Medvedev as successor;
“A Wall of Money” to Hit Russia
On Monday, December 10, Vladimir Putin announced that he is supporting Dmitry Medvedev for the Russian presidency by saying, "I have known him for more than 17 years, I have worked with him very closely all these years, and I fully and completely support this candidacy." Dmitry Medvedev is chairman of the board for the state-owned natural gas monopoly OAO Gazprom and serves as Russia’s first First Deputy Prime Minister, where his duties have included directing key domestic social programs, including efforts to improve housing and health care. The UK Times Online writes that, “Vladimir Putin rejects hardliners to anoint Dmitri Medvedev [who] would be the youngest Kremlin leader since Tsar Nicholas II. Russia’s stock market reached a record high after the announcement.” Dmitry Medvedev, born on September 14, 1965, is perhaps the most liberal and business-oriented official in President Putin’s administration. The International Herald Tribune is reporting that President Putin's decision is expected to give a major boost to the economy. "As if to underline the point, today Russia's main stock index soared on the political news." Unlike the American presidential candidates, the Russian candidates will have only a short time frame for their election campaigns, with Russia's presidential elections taking place on March 2, 2008. According to the Yuri Levada Center, as of January 2007, 33% of Russian voters were willing to support Medvedev’s candidacy in the first round of the elections, and, assuming that there were a second round, 54% would vote for him again. With Russian approval ratingsfor Putin hovering at close to 80%, just 41% of Russian voters are willing to support Putin’s handpicked candidate, while 12% of Russian voters are explicitly going to vote against the United Russia Party nominee. Among Western corporate executives |
Many Americans hold a Moscow-centric view of Russia, but the country is widely diverse—economically, ethnically, politically, and geographically. Much as American attitudes differ from one part of the country to another, economic development and politics in Russia paint a unique picture—especially when examined by region. So what is going on outside of Moscow, and what does it say about the 'average' Russian citizen? More importantly, what do recent events signify—if anything—about the future of U.S./Russia relations?
