6 Children, 1 Adult Die at a Russian Summer Camp; Medvedev Orders Country-Wide Inspection
Yuri Mamchur
Having visited then-Soviet and later Russian summer camps as a kid, and later having volunteered as a camp counselor in America, I have noticed the indescribable differences in attitude towards kids' safety in two countries. While the unregulated environment of Russian summer camps maybe provides for a better, wilder "summer adventure," American camps drill into camp counselors and children "safety first" and eventually provide it - the safety.
Yesterday's events in Yeysk (Krasnodar Krai) speak volumes about the degradation of Russian government and private institutions in their ensuring of children's safety. Seven camp counselors and 63 children (ages 8-16, all from Moscow), traveled by boat to a local island. Despite the signs "Swimming Strictly Prohibited" and absence of lifeguards or medical personnel, camp counselors allowed children to swim. In the meantime, counselors got drunk! While the counselors were drinking, six children disappeared. One counselor attempted to save the kids--who were being dragged into the open sea by strong currents--and died himself.
Government will cover all funeral expenses, and... that's basically it. Unlike the American Camping Association (ACA) there is no independent organization supervising summer camps' safety standards in Russia. Government officials who are supposed to fulfill the ACA's role are easily bribable, and most of them are using their 30-to-48-day vacations during summertime. An American family would see an opportunity to sue such a camp for millions of dollars. However, Russian camps do not have insurance to cover expenses associated with such legal cases, and the legal system itself does not allow for such law suits. I assume the parents of dead children can hope for about $5,000-$10,000 per child in government compensations from Moscow Mayor Luzhkov or Russian Federal government.
"Boris and Natasha" Shake Up U.S.-Soviet (er, Russian) Relations
Bruce Chapman
Stories continue to pour forth about the Russian spy scandal. Everyone seems a bit embarrassed. The Russians pretend to be indignant, but they don't deny that the eleven folks caught with lots of spy equipment, fake identification and other espionage giveaways, were, in fact,....well,....spies.
What really should embarrass the Kremlin is the apparently farcical quality of the spy craft. References have been made to John LeCarre and James Bond. A much more appropriate comparison is to the cartoon characters of Boris Badenov and Natasha Fatale in the Rocky and Bullwinkle TV show that was popular from the 60s to the 80s. See, for example, an excerpt from "Boris and Natasha Take Washington."
Some think that all the Kremlin really wanted was what they got, impressions of life in the USA and what people close to government think. If so, it is another example of wasteful government spending. The Russian public need something comparable to the Tea Parties to demand better value for their tax monies. This pitiful excuse for spying is what about we would expect of the American government under Obama. It is the exact sort of soft power intelligence the Left here seems to think is important. Only it is hidden.
The Kremlin would be better off following the Internet, including our own Russia Blog! Given what they appear to be after, the Russian government should sponsor more conferences and exchanges right out in the open where people of different views and experiences from the US and Russia can learn from one another.
That would prove more productive, cost less and lead to fewer arrests.
Russian Business Leader Saves Historic Landmark from Closure
Yuri Mamchur
Viktor Vekselberg and Arnold Shwarzenneger signed a historic document in front of Dmitry Medvedev to maintain and protect the U.S. Fort Ross national park
(San Francisco, CA, 22 June 2010) -- California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and corporate leader Victor Vekselberg, Chairman of Renova Group -- alongside Russian President Dmitry Medvedev -- sign a historic agreement to support and preserve California's Fort Ross State Park. The site was on the verge of closure given California's ongoing budgetary crisis. The Renova Group of Companies and State of California view their cooperation as fostering deeper cross-cultural relations between Russia and the United States and promoting enhanced understanding and connection between the peoples of the United States and Russia.
An early agricultural supplier to Alaska, Fort Ross was a thriving Russian settlement from 1812 to 1841. The Fort's Russian settlers were the first to introduce to the area shipbuilding and windmills, as well as advances in science, natural studies, agriculture, and conservation. At the forefront of multicultural sharing, Fort Ross was a place where Russians and local Native Americans shared peaceful relations and where innovation and respect for the land were valued highly.
Hearing of the impending closure, the Renova Group, headed by Victor Vekselberg, has committed substantial financial support to the park and will promote long-term solutions to budgetary and other issues through establishment of a public charitable foundation, the Renova Fort Ross Foundation.
Russian Special Forces Attack Pirates, Free Sailors; Russians Ready to Declare War against Somalia
Yuri Mamchur
Russian vessel "Moscow University" was hijacked by pirates and 24 hours later freed by Russian navy.
A Russian warship hunted down an oil tanker hijacked by Somali pirates and special forces rappelled on board Thursday, surprising the outlaws, who surrendered after a 22-minute gunbattle. Twenty-three Russian sailors were freed, reports MSNBC. The dramatic Indian Ocean rescue came a day after pirates seized the tanker, which was heading toward China carrying $50 million worth of crude. One pirate was killed and 10 others were arrested, officials said.
The Russian destroyer Marshal Shaposhnikov had rushed to the scene following Wednesday's seizure of the Liberian-flagged tanker, Moscow University. Special forces troops rappelled down to the tanker from a helicopter, Rear Adm. Jan Thornqvist, the EU Naval Force commander, told an Associated Press reporter. "The operation's success was due to the surprise factor, said a Russian military officer aboard the warship. "The pirates were taken by surprise. They did not expect such resolute measures from us," Capt. Ildar Akhmerov told RIA Novosti news agency.
The pirates were to be taken to Moscow to face criminal charges. Russia Blog does not envy the pirates fate in Russian prisons, assuming they survive the "relocation." President Medvedev hinted that hard times are awaiting them. "Perhaps we should get back to the idea of establishing an international court and other legal tools" to prosecute pirates, he said. "Until then, we'll have to do what our forefathers did when they met the pirates."
The death of the Polish delegation on its way to Katyn is unthinkable and unbelievable. As the shock slowly settles in, people across the world are asking one question: why was the entire Polish elite on board one jet? Regardless of the findings of the undergoing investigation, one already can conclude that so many leaders of Poland's society should not have flown together.
Small private companies and large corporations have rules for their executives to fly, drive, and even take elevators separately. One Russian senior retired military official--when talking to us--recalled the time when leading Soviet generals from Russia's Far East took one plane on their way to meetings in Moscow. The plane crashed, generals died, and the Soviet defense minister was furious that so much of the military leadership of one region took the same plane. How did the entire Poland's military leadership, the governor of the Central Bank, top parliamentarians, ministers, and the president end up on the same jet?
The Polish government owns only four planes. While all the jets are Soviet-made, they are finely tuned, tastefully designed, undergo extraordinary maintenance, and are flown by the best Polish pilots. Poland does not have resources comparable to those of the United States or Russia. One can understand that it may be hard for a small European country to come up with multiple jets for a brief private ceremony. However, officials in charge of the trip should have overstepped their pride and dialed Vladimir Putin, or whoever else in the Russian leadership. Surely the Russian government, defense ministry, or oligarchs would have been more than happy to provide two, three, 10, 20, you name it! number of planes to accommodate the Polish delegation for this historically important ceremony to honor the Polish martyrs of Katyn. We hope everyone around the world, from small companies to big governments learned a lesson from this tragic event.
We mourn with the people of Poland their tremendous loss.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with the Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow on Thursday. (Photo by Sergei Chirikov/European Pressphoto Agency).
This is the question that every American critical of Russia's Iranian policies should ask before stating an opinion related to the issue. Today's article in the not-so-friendly-to-Russia New York Times marks an encouraging change of tone. Whether it is Obama's promised policy shift, or Hillary's meetings in Moscow, or the beginning of spring on the East Coast, but the facts known to experts only, are finally made public on the main page of the NYT.
In the article's third paragraph, the Times quotes Russia's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov saying that "[Russia's] Bushehr cooperation played "a special role" in keeping international inspectors inside Iran, and "ensuring that Iran is complying with its nonproliferation obligations. "Citing another sign of better ties between the countries," says NYT quoting another official, "30 percent of supplies for American troops in Afghanistan are now being shipped through Russian territory, either by airplane or train."
Maybe, after all, Russia and Americans can be, should be, and are strategic partners. And maybe the U.S. should trust Russia on its Iranian policies, taking into consideration such facts as that Russia has a five-century-long intelligence presence in Iran, that Iran's every nuclear-related facility is flooded with Russian experts, and that an Islamic nuclear-armed nation on Russia's border is the last thing Russian leadership and people would ever want.
Today, National Public Radio has a piece on President Medvedev's plans to curb Russian consumption of vodka. If NPR's source is to be believed, czar Peter the Great fostered a culture where people were actually encouraged to drink more to raise their alcohol tolerance. Accurate or not, the World Health Organization reports that the average Russian consumes eighteen liters of pure alcohol annually--twice the volume they consider dangerous. The story was covered in a January post by Bruce Chapman.
Nightclub Fire Brings Attention to Russia's Weakness
Yuri Mamchur
This weekend's fire at a night club in Perm, 700 miles east of Moscow pointed out the main weakness of Russian government: its inability to enforce the basic rule of law. A night club "The Lame Horse" in the past had received multiple warnings from the local fire department officials. Every club in Russia must receive a permit before hosting an indoor firework show. The fireworks used in such shows are supposed to be "cold" and not dangerous. The permits were never issued, and the fireworks were hot enough to take away 112 lives and leave 120 injured.
Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev voiced the growing infuriation of media and common people. Russians, weathered by endless wars and recent terrorist attacks, have patience and understanding when it comes to investigating a train explosion. But the nation has no patience whatsoever for the deaths caused by "sheer stupidity and carelessness" (in words of Dmitry Medvedev). Four owners and managers of the Lame Horse have been arrested. During the holiday season, every single public venue across Russia will be checked by local fire departments and the Ministry of Emergency Situations. The fire at the Lame Horse painfully reminds the 2003 fire at a night club in Rhode Island. Kremlin and local governments have a lot to learn about going beyond bureaucratic warnings and actually enforcing the laws.
President Medvedev's Follow-up On Disassembling State Companies
Bruce Chapman
The Kremlin may well want to encourage speculation as to whether President Medvedev was truly instructing Prime Minister Putin on making state enterprises "comptetitve", but it is wholly unlikely that the two would do anything that wasn't pre-arranged between them. If it were otherwise, a political rupture would be underway, with wide repercussions, and nothing indicates such a thing now. (Of course, human nature being what it is, no one likes to take direction too long from even the most illustrious former boss.)
The follow-up to the President's speech Friday does make it seem, in any case, that Mr. Medvedev is serious and wants to proceed with economic change. (See also here.)
Government-run enterprises are famously less efficient than private ones. Corruption is more likely, too. So, having taken possession of the "commanding heights" of the economy away from Yeltsin era oligarchs, the Putin/Medvedev team (or the Medvedev/Putin team, as you will) may now be ready to privatize again on a broader basis--and with fresh capital from abroad.
"The problem," he says, "is that most of the people listening to the speech in the Kremlin's St. George Hall on Thursday--especially those who sat in the first row--are the very ones who have gained the most from the raw materials-based economy and imperfect democracy that Medvedev criticized so harshly. How will Medvedev possibly be able to overcome the powerful clan in the government and Kremlin that is most interested in continuing the anti-modernization status quo?"
Two trends of Russian government policy seem to be shifting, as witnessed by President Medvedev's major address today in Moscow. The first is the tendency in recent years for government to punish those individuals and companies deemed guilty of economic misbehavior. Now, it seems, the Kremlin is taking a more free market approach.
In foreign policy--connected to business, as well--the Kremlin seems eager once again to bring foreign capital back into the country, and to protect it. Russian leadership also seems to be warming a bit to the U.S., and cooling to Iran.
At least that is the interpretation many are putting on the fairly general statements in the Medvedev speech. See the following report from Stratfor:
Thursday, November 12, 2009
A Speech, the Russian Economy and U.S. Relations
"AS RUSSIAN PRESIDENT DMITRI MEDVEDEV was preparing to make his second State of the State address on Thursday, some major shifts in Russian domestic and foreign policy appeared to be taking place. Those shifts seemed destined to affect not only the speech, but Russia as a whole."
If you're looking for behind-the-scenes insight, one of the better places to find it is through reports and assessments from STRATFOR, a leader in geopolitical intelligence, analysis and research.
Yesterday, in its "Geopolitical Diary," the company's analysts took on the issue of Moscow-Tehran relations. Against a backdrop of the Iranian regime's nuclear program and its unwillingness to cooperate fully with the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency), STRATFOR suggests that Russia could be "about to shift its international role within the Iran talks."
Russia traditionally has been staunchly against sanctions on Iran. But in the last few weeks, Moscow suddenly grew quiet. During this time, U.S., U.K. and French officials have visited Russia to discuss the Iran issue. Moreover, STRATFOR sources in Moscow have stated that the West has been much more vocal in the possibilities of Western investment and cash going back into Russia, should Moscow want to be partners with the West.
The continuing effort to get a full accounting of Iran's nuclear program will not to end anytime soon. But if STRATFOR's analysis is right and Russia does shift its role, we could very well see a dramatic change in the tone and pace of the negotiations. Iran's leaders might not like finding themselves alone. (For reference, see Edward Lozansky's post of October 26 on this topic.)
Aparent Killers of a Lawyer and a Journalist Arrested in Moscow
Yuri Mamchur
The murder of Novaya Gazeta's journalist Anastasiya Baburova and attorney Stanislav Markelov apparently has has been solved. The reputed killers were found and arrested; they are members of the RNU (Russian Nationalistic Union) known in Russia as RNE. While Western media insinuated that the murder that took place on January 19, 2009 was a Russian government attack on the journalists, Muscovites who witnessed the event could tell you exactly the opposite story. The true story less exciting, but and more troubling, than the one about Putin eating liberal journalists for breakfast...
The nationalists assassinated attorney Markelov for his work in defending other victims of nationalistic attacks. When the crime took place in downtown Moscow, Anastasiya Baburova was interviewing the lawyer. She drew attention to the crime scene and started chasing the killers; so they shot her as well. One of the saddest part of this story is the complete misunderstanding of the Russia's most troubling problem: the Western press continues to paint a portrait of a authoritarian Medvedev/Putin tandem and suggesting that there is a liberal alternative. The truth is, whether one likes Medvedev and Putin or not, the only other viable alternative to their rule--and a quite popular one--is nationalistic fascism. We, at Russia Blog, extend our sympathies to the families of Stanislav and Anastasiya.
In his recent article, Bruce Chapman--Discovery Institute's President and former Director of the White House Census Bureau--rightly criticized the Russian government for cancelling the scheduled 2010 Census. (The census was moved to 2013). We want to believe that it was Russia Blog's criticism that forced prime-minister Vladimir Putin to revisit the issue. The original official reason for the census cancellation was the lack of budget funds. While FSB, among many other government agencies, is using taxpayers' money to renew its branches' auto-fleets with brand new bullet-proof Mercedes-Benz's S 350 L 4Matic (yes, with expensive woods, luxurious leather, hi-end stereos, and iPhone connectors; any U.S. FSB agents want to change their employer?), it was extremely hard to believe that Russian economy was doing that bad. Russia's Census Bureau (RosStat) was despaired by the cancellation, as they had spent significant funds and effort preparing for the act.
In Russia, criticism of the census cancellation was very muffled, as most Russians sincerely don't understand its value. Most likely, Medvedev and Putin were not afraid to reveal the information that could be compared to the one of 10 years ago; even with the global financial crisis, it is very hard to beat Russia's humiliating conditions at the end of Yeltsin's era. It still remains a secret what exactly moved the Kremlin to cancel the census in the first place. What Russian government most likely hadn't realized were the potential economic consequences had census been canceled. International corporations use census results for their marketing, expansions, hiring, and other business objectives, and the corporate-oriented Kremlin must have heard that message loud and clear. The census, according to Putin, will take place in 2010, and the Russian government committed the necessary 10.5 billion rubles (360.5 million USD) to finalize the effort.
A developed country does not cancel its regularly scheduled census of population, especially when one is constitutionally required. So it is not a surprise that the decision of Rosstat, the Russian State Statistical Service to "postpone" the 2010 census on budgetary grounds was taken over the objection of Rosstat's highly regarded professional staff and at the behest of politicians in the Kremlin. The political leaders don't realize the seriousness of their mistake.
This may seem like a minor matter, except that it reflects high-level confusion about reality--the kind of reality a census captures. Indirectly, it damages economic prospects because it shows that public statistics cannot be accepted as reliable for planning and marketing purposes. If the Kremlin hopes that a several year delay will help it disguise negative demographic trends, it is deluded. Observers now will imagine far worse than an accurate census would show.
The decision is particularly unfortunate in light of the notorious statistical deceit that characterized the USSR. In that grim era statistics might as well have been another branch of state propaganda. Population and other numbers were so decrepit that the best analysis of the true condition of Russia demography probably came from Dr. Murray Feshbach, a brilliant analyst at the United States Census Bureau and, later, the State Department.
Was There a Deal Behind the Missile Shield Decision?
Bruce Chapman
Russia's Dmitry Medvedev, Poland's Lech Kaczynski, and America's Barack Obama
Russian authorities are happy, Czech and Polish officials feel as if they have been used and abused by the United States, and Republicans are outraged that President Obama has decided to scrap plans to build a missile defense in Eastern Europe. The stated purpose was to guard Europe against intimidation by a nuclear Iran, but Russia professed to feel threatened and encircled. Now, presumably, Russians don't feel threatened and Iranians feel liberated to move ahead with nuclear development.
But here is the real test of this decision: did the U.S. gain anything by it in terms of protection of Europe (and Israel) against Iranian nukes? The next few months will tell.
The USSR and the USA were strangely but truly united in working against nuclear proliferation for a couple of decades--the 70s and 80s. In my time as US ambassador to the UN Organizations in Vienna in the 1980s this was the one field of relations in which mutual cooperation was sincere and real. Indeed, the way in which the United States came closer to the USSR at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) after the Chernobyl nuclear accident in the Ukraine in 1986 may be cited as a key turning point in the relationship that hastened "perestroika" and the thawing of the Cold War. The Soviets realized that we really didn't want to humiliate them, but only to help them deal with a real crisis. It led to a breakthrough that extended beyond the nuclear realm.
It does not seem to excite Russians terribly much, and it is hardly noticed in the U.S. and Europe, but Russia's GDP just dropped 10.9 percent in the second quarter. That comes after a 9.8 percent drop in the first quarter. This is grim.
The go-go economies of Moscow and St. Petersburg also seem to be deteriorating. Restaurants see a 20 percent drop in business. Can the madcap nightclub life of Moscow be far behind?
President Medvedev is calling for investigation of state-owned enterprises, thought to be hubs of inefficiency, waste and corruption. A new restructuring may be in order in the long run. In the short term, should we expect firings?
Regardless, Russia seems to be suffering a recession that may be wider and deeper than that which afflicts America. It also may last longer.
As the first anniversary of the brief war in South Ossetia approaches, it appears what peace does exist continues to be set against a backdrop of tension and accusation.
According to the New York Times, over the weekend South Ossetia authorities "reported two rounds of mortar fire coming from Georgian-controlled territory." Meanwhile, according to the BBC, Georgia is accusing Russia of "moving border posts along the boundary between Georgia and...South Ossetia." The European Union and its monitoring group, the EU Monitoring Mission in Georgia isn't confirming either "claim," according to the BBC.
The anniversary of last year's conflict is August 7, so there are a few more days for clarity to develop.
Click here to read the official statement by the presidents of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. It, clearly, reflects their vision of the last year's conflict.
Russia's Educational Perspective on Religion is Very Different from that of the United States or Europe
Bruce Chapman
In Russian city of Tver a Catholic cathedral and an old Muslim mosque are standing literally across the street from each other. Christians and Muslims have lived side by side in Russia since the 16th century. (Photo by Yuri Mamchur)
A new Kremlin plan to teach students religion or secular ethics is meant to combat the aimlessness of youth. Perhaps it will--to some extent.
The approach is probably unique--teach what is again the dominant state religion (Russian Orthodoxy) as the one acceptable Christian faith, and also teach--according to student desires--Islam (the religion of a sizable minority, particularly in the South), Buddhism or Judaism, and give the students the alternative of a coarse in secular ethics. It will seem fair to many, maybe most, Russians. It is quite different, obviously, from the "scientific atheism" of Soviet days.
The program will get a lot of criticism, however. First, the most eager evangelists in Russia today are probably the various kinds of Christian pentecostals, and there is a sizable Roman Catholic population in certain ethnic centers. So the government apparently is starting a new struggle with these groups in schools, of all places.
Then arises the question of how smart it is to have Islam taught in state schools. Who is going to teach it? What is going to be taught? Might the government find itself trying to deal with hostile Friday mosque sermons because of the kind of Islam it promulgates in the schools? Where does that lead? How will populations in areas where Islam is a majority faith react to state school classes that offer instruction as well in other faiths?
President Obama's Speech to the New Economic School in Moscow
Charles Ganske
Click on the extended post to read the text of President Barack Obama's speech to New Economic School graduates in Moscow on July 7, 2009. To read more about why President Obama chose the New Economic School for the third major foreign policy speech of his presidency, click here.
Obama in Moscow: True Reset or Just Walking in Circles?
Yuri Mamchur
Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev in Moscow
MOSCOW -- for the past two days the city's downtown language was English. If you were grabbing a coffee or dining with friends, local waiters rarely bothered to switch to Russian, even with Russians. Obama brought an unprecedented 600 advisors, media, and assistants with him. Even as the American President had breakfast with the Russian Prime-Minister at Putin's house in the countryside, literally hundreds of white vans and black SUVs with American embassy license plates and "for hire" signs were lining up Tverskaya Street near the Ritz Carlton that hosted the Obamas. Private businesses and non-profits also chose the occasion of Obama's visit to host their personal meetings.
Now, one has to ask: What are the results of this American invasion of Moscow? Reduction of nukes? Meeting of Obama with Garry Kasparov, the virtual leader of a virtual opposition? Endless argument about the non-existent American missile defense system in Eastern Europe? If these dialogues constitute the promised "reset," then maybe the only real reset that occurred was the exchange of George and Laura for Barack and Michelle walking the plush carpets of the Moscow Ritz Carlton. Such a "reset" isn't worth all the American taxpayers' money spent on such an over-the-top, opulent trip.
But was there a possibility that the behind-the-scenes results were brighter? What did Obama really talk about with Putin during the two hour private breakfast? Maybe about none of the above, but about our countries' economic relations, about the state of human rights in Russia and, maybe, the new Administration's perceptions about the international situation--that is, about Iran, Israel, Afghanistan, and North Korea.
A Volga Dnieper Airways (VDA) Antonov 124 cargo plane on the tarmac Photo by: Boeing
Next week U.S. President Barack Obama will meet Russian President Dimitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in Moscow. This week American and Russian negotiators reportedly reached an agreement to expand the transit of U.S. materiel through Russia in support of the NATO mission in Afghanistan. Not coincidentally, Russia's military chief of staff announced that the U.S. and Russian militaries had resumed direct talks that had been cancelled last year when relations chilled following the August 2008 Russo-Georgian War.
U.S. Congressional Junkets: Who's Number 1, Russia or Georgia?
Charles Ganske
Congressional trips abroad paid for by U.S. taxpayers have increased 50% since 2006 and tripled since 2001, according to The Wall Street Journal
Russia and Georgia are in the news again this week before President Obama's first visit to Moscow. But the rumors of war in the Caucasus being promoted by certain U.S. pundits should probably take a backseat to a report published by The Wall Street Journal on American Congressional trips to the two countries. Accordng to the WSJ, last year Russia was the 10th most popular foreign destination for Congressional delegations funded by the American taxpayer. Georgia trailed as the 13th most popular destination, but still didn't do too badly, considering that it is a small country in the Caucasus with barely four million people. Not surprisingly, France, Switzerland, Germany, and the United Kingdom were well ahead, with only Kuwait, China and Israel proving exceptions to the overall Euro-Atlantic (and perhaps taxpayer funded Alpine skiing and wine and cheese tasting) bias.
Fans grieve Jackson's death in downtown St Petersburg (image from NTV news report)
Today, undoubtedly, the biggest world news is the unexpected death of Michael Jackson, the only true King of Pop. It was night time in Moscow when the news reached Russia, and the sad event dominated the news reports around the country all day long since early morning. All Russian news channels, including the state-owned Rossiya and the First Channel, started their news reports with the details of Michael Jackson's passing, his career, his visits to Russia, and tribute of his fans around the world and in Russian cities. Many finished the news with a "no comment" music video tribute to the singer. Gazeta.ru wrote that "only a lazy paralyzed person didn't throw a rock at the idol in the last few years," however they agreed that his death brought out the true feeling about the star in Russia and around the globe: unreserved love and admiration.
Among many Russian leaders, the president of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov said "I deeply grieve with the musician's relatives, friends, and fans because of the untimely passing of the outstanding man, unmatchable singer Michael Jackson, whose death ends the entire epoch of the world music culture."
Michael Jackson was a household name in the countries of the former Soviet Union. During his visits to Moscow in 1993 and 1996, he was greeted as a head of state. Radio Free Europe writes that "his live concert in Moscow in 1993 sparked near-hysteria among scores of Russians hungry for a taste of Western culture." One of my brightest personal memories from the Nineties is attending Jackson's History Tour concert at the Dynamo stadium in Moscow in 1996. Today, hundreds of fans laid flowers and toys near the American Embassy in Moscow and in downtown St Petersburg to honor the idol. We all deeply grieve the untimely passing of the musician who influenced our lives and cultures.
Cantor Compares Obama to Putin Pravda Turns Paleocon Against Bailout USA
Charles Ganske
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (left) and U.S. President Barack Obama (right)
Last week Congressman Eric Cantor (R-VA), the number two Republican in the U.S. House of Representatives, compared President Barack Obama to Russian leader Vladimir Putin in an interview with the Associated Press. Cantor did not mean the comparison in a flattering way.
While criticizing the Obama Administration's handling of the bankruptcy of General Motors and Chrysler, Cantor declared:
"They said, 'Set aside the rule of law, let's strip secured creditors, bondholders, of their rights. Take them away outside of the bankruptcy process and give them to the political cronies and the auto workers' unions...it's almost like looking at Putin's Russia...you want to reward your political friends at the expense of the certainty of law?"
Russia Blog: 1,050 Original Posts, 7,000 Readers' Comments, and Counting!
Yuri Mamchur
After a brief break in posting new articles, we're back to offer you unique and exciting commentary on Russia's politics, economy, and culture. Russia Blog proudly notes that since 2005 we have published over 1,000 original posts and 7,000 original reader comments. We sincerely welcome your readership and your financial support. Thank you for reading us all these years!
- The Editors
This week at Russia Blog: world's biggest gay parade... in Moscow; commentary on the opposition in Moldova; a photo essay of the recent World Russia Forum in Washington D.C., coverage of Moscow's 2009 Victory Day Parade, and much more.
Workers protest a crisis-shortened four day work week and pay cuts at a Ford plant in Russia (Photo by: The St. Petersburg Times)
In case you hadn't noticed, Russia's culture, whether the subject is politics or business, doesn't always mesh as nicely with the traditions of the West as one might suppose. The recent arrests of gay rights demonstrators in Moscow--they say they were denied any kind of demonstration permit--illustrate a continuing difference in traditions of free speech on public issues. Regardless of their stance on any given issue, such as gay rights, almost all Americans and Europeans support the right to peaceful protest. In the economic realm, the same is true. However, in the case of a demonstration in Russia against Ford Motor Co., there was no official objection to the protest demonstration, but one does wonder what really was being protested.
In the U.S., it is commonplace for companies under financial pressure to cut back employment or, in certain circumstances, to reduce the work week in order to conform to production reductions. If the company lacks orders for cars, it can't afford to build them, can it? But the work week cut still must seem novel to Russians who are more used to a general social contract that accepts low wages in return for security. In the old days of the U.S.S.R., companies just kept making products, often regardless of market acceptance. It was one reason socialism failed.
U.S. Undersecretary of State William Burns Remarks to the 2009 World Russia Forum
Charles Ganske
William Burns, U.S. Undersecretary for Political Affairs, addressing the World Russia Forum
William J. Burns
Under Secretary for Political Affairs
Washington, DC
April 27, 2009
Remarks As Delivered
I'm delighted to be here today. I want to thank Ed Lozansky for organizing this very timely forum.
The joint declaration issued by President Obama and President Medvedev at their first meeting in London on April 1 reaffirmed that Washington and Moscow share common definitions for many of the threats and opportunities that we see in the world today. The declaration recognized that more unites us than divides us. And it reflected the commitment of both Presidents to move beyond Cold War mentalities and to chart a new course in relations between our countries. The task is now to translate that sentiment into actual achievements as we look ahead to a July summit in Moscow.
Missile Defense Debate Kicks Off World Russia Forum in Washington D.C.
Charles Ganske
Russia Today TV video of Air Force Lt. Gen. Henry Obering, Director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, debating Russian General Vladimir Dvorkin, and an interview with Dr. Edward Lozansky, director of Russia House and a frequent contributor to Russia Blog
The 28th Annual World Russia Forum is just around the corner. For two days you'll have the chance to interact with experts, and to hear and discuss specific proposals from top American and Russian political leaders, businessmen, policy makers, and scholars on how to reset the course of the U.S. -- Russia relationship from confrontation to strategic partnership and alliance. The conference will take place at the Hart Senate Office Building, followed by a reception at the Russian Embassy on April 27, 2009, and at the George Washington University and the Russian Cultural Center on April 28, 2009.
This year's Forum will feature welcoming remarks by His Excellency Sergei Kislyak -- Russia's Ambassador to the United States of America; keynote presentation by the Honorable William Burns -- U.S. Under Secretary of State and former U.S. Ambassador to Russia; a discussion between the famous member of the Russian Diplomatic Academy Igor Panarin (who predicted that the United States will cease to exist by the summer 2010) and U.S. Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC); a presentation on the issues of the current American and Russian agendas in the former Soviet space by the famous online expert Mike Averko; and much more.
We are excited about the 28th annual World Russia Forum--the premier conference of its kind. Over 300 people have registered to attend; if you are not one of them, take advantage of the late registration, including the discounted registration option for the full-time students. Learn more about the Forum at www.WorldRussiaForum.org, and have a safe trip to Washington D.C. We look forward to new ideas and friendships that will last beyond the two days of the Forum!
Twitter Madness in Chisinau What Happened in Moldova?
Charles Ganske
Angry youths pelting riot police with stones in the Moldovan capital of Chisinau last week
The former Soviet republic of Moldova is not the kind of place that typically grabs headlines. As many media reports have reminded us in the last two weeks, Moldova is one of the poorest countries in Europe. While plenty of Moldovans have cellular phones, among post-Soviet republics, Moldova is not exactly as wired as say, Estonia.
Given these facts, one would think that the Moldovan capital of Chisinau would be an unlikely place for a revolution fueled by social networking technologies, such as Twitter and Facebook. Yet according to early reports from The New York Times and other Western media outlets, that is supposedly what happened this month, after Moldova's Communist Party won an election that the opposition insists was rigged.
Putin Bans Seal-Hunt, Surprises Environmentalists, Pushes Canada into Isolation
Yuri Mamchur
A Canadian seal hunter takes a swing at a baby seal. "Our hunt ... is sustainable, it's viable and it's humane" says Thomas Hedderson, the Minister of Fisheries and Aquaculture in Newfoundland and Labrador.
This week, animal welfare activists have found themselves the most unlikely ally. Vladimir Putin, Russia's Prime-Minister, a judo master, a book author, and a pet lover, who received a tiger cub for his birthday, banned seal hunting in Russian waters. On March 18, Putin labeled the annual hunt of the animals a "bloody industry" that "should have been banned a long time ago." Putin's words and law put Canada further into isolation on the seal-hunting issue.
Sheryl Fink, a researcher for the International Fund for Animal Welfare based in Guelph, Ont, was positively shocked by Putin's decision. The Russian branch of the organization held rallies in cities across Russia last month, but after years of fruitless campaigning, Mr. Putin's support caught them off guard. "It highlights the fact that Canada is still in the Dark Ages on this issue. It's astounding when even the government of Russia is more willing to listen to its own people than ours is," Ms. Fink said.
U.S. Firm in Kiev: Ukrainian Banking System Might Collapse
Yuri Mamchur
An internal letter at an American company in Kiev, Ukraine, informs the employees that they will receive their two-month salary in advance, because... there might be no way to transfer funds a few days from now. The firm's financial analysts predict that it might become impossible to transfer money within the Ukrainian banking system. The message says:
"The Ukrainian economy is experiencing unprecedented challenges, and one of them is the potential for instability in the banking system. The failure of the Ukrainian banking system is not imminent, however, risks have increased significantly in recent weeks... Should the Ukrainian system not pass these tests, it might significantly affect the ability of businesses to transfer money in the system, including making the salary payments."
Stratfor's Friedman: New U.S.-Russia Cold War Likely
Charles Ganske
Since its inception ten years ago, the Austin, Texas based "private intelligence agency" Strategic Forecasting Inc. (Stratfor) has consistently drawn a great deal of attention from the mainstream media.
Occasionally, as in its coverage of The Hague war crimes tribunal of former Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic in the early 2000s, this "shadow CIA" has been accurate, demonstrating that it can cultivate reliable sources in places like Belgrade and elsewhere. But when it comes to Dr. George Friedman, the President of Stratfor, the predictions and "strategic forecasts" have often taken a turn towards the bizarre (for example, Friedman has predicted that Mexico will become a major rival for America in the late 21st century). Not for nothiing has my alma mater university community of Austin, Texas (whose unofficial motto is "Keep Austin Weird") become the home of both George Friedman and the professional conspiracy theorist and frequent Russia Today TV guest Alex Jones.
It's been said by many observers that a gaffe is when a politician tells the truth. In the case of Friedman, during a recent appearance on the U.S. conservative Dennis Prager's talk radio show, the President of Stratfor revealed what he thinks the purpose of NATO expansion is: "to block the Russians" from reasserting influence in the Russian near abroad of the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe.
Dear Readers,
Today at 8:08 PM Moscow time (12:08 PM EST, 9:08 AM PST) I will participate in a debate on the future of the U.S.-Russia relations on Radio Echo Moskvi (Moscow Echo radio station). Dr. Andrey Afanasievich Kokoshin and I will defend our point of view that Russia will manage to improve its relationships with the U.S. The listeners will challenge our position. As you all know, we at Russia Blog, believe in a positive and productive relationship between the two nations, therefore, I will enjoy my role in this lively discussion. Please, click here to listen to the live broadcast.
Dr. Andrey Afanasievich Kokoshin is a member of the State Duma; deputy chairman of the Duma Committee on Industry, Construction, and High Technologies; chairman of Expert Councils for Biotechnologies and Information Technologies; Director of the Institute for International Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences; and Chairman of the Russian National Council for the Development of Education.
Kyrgyzstan to Close Manas Air Base Russia Ready to Negotiate U.S., NATO Supplies for Afghanistan
Charles Ganske
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev meeting Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev (right) in Bishkek on October 9, 2008 (Photo by: RIA Novosti)
Russia apparently got the message from the incoming Obama Administration that the new American President had planned a "surge" into Afghanistan to fight a resurgent Taliban. Now that resolve is being tested, in the sense that the Kremlin wants to see what quid pro quo the U.S. is willing to give in return for the use of Russian territory and railroads for shipping materiel from Europe to former Soviet Central Asia. However, unlike the terrible day of September 11, 2001, when then President Vladimir Putin was one of the first world leaders to call President Bush and offer him access to sharing intelligence on the Taliban and his country's airspace for armed U.S. overflights, this time Russia is going to "trust, but verify" American intentions in Eurasia before agreeing to a full-scale supply effort.
Click on the extended post to read an excerpt from the Associated Press story.
Save the Date - World Russia Forum, April 27-28, 2009!
Yuri Mamchur
This year, for the first time, Discovery Institute is teaming with the American University in Moscow to jointly sponsor the 28th Annual World Russia Forum in Washington, D.C. The conference, titled "America and Russia: New Leadership, Challenges, Chances" will be held on April 27-28, 2009. For more information, early registration, and a preliminary agenda, please visit Forum's new and improved website: www.WorldRussiaForum.org.
U.S. Gen. Petraeus: Russia Agrees to Transit Supplies for Afghanistan
Charles Ganske
Gen. David Petraeus, Commander of U.S. Central Command and the man charged with overseeing a new American surge against the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan
The continued deterioration of internal security in Pakistan has contributed to a warming of U.S.-Russia ties. General David Petraeus, the American commander who led the "surge" in Iraq widely credited with reducing violence in that country, announced this week that the U.S. and Russia had reached a tentative agreement on bolstering supply lines for Afghanistan through Russian territory. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, in a visit to Uzbekistan, another key transit country for supplies to the NATO mission in Afghanistan, told reporters this week that he hoped for an improvement in the Afghan situation with the new Obama Administration focusing more on stabilizing the war-torn country.
Putin warns of 'big expectations' of Obama Jan 17 07:04 AM US/Eastern
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on Saturday he had noted "positive signals" about US president-elect Barack Obama but cautioned against "big expectations."
"We have watched an election campaign with great attention and we have heard and seen the positive signals which have been directed at us," Putin told German newspaper editors and journalists in Dresden, Germany.
He singled out Obama's stance on the US missile defence plan in Europe and US apparent readiness to wait on a NATO membership for countries like Georgia and Ukraine, which Russia considers its sphere of influence.
"We have heard and are fully in agreement that we have a lot in common when it comes to the solution of problems related to limiting the arms race," he said.
"We have a lot of common problems that we can really only jointly solve. The same goes for the problems in the Middle East, with Iran, the problems of non-proliferation in general."
But he also warned of the danger of raising expectations too high.
"I am deeply convinced that the biggest disappointments are born out of big expectations," he added.
Click here to read the rest of the story at Breitbart.com.
Click on the extended post to watch a video of and read the text of President Barack Hussein Obama's inaugural speech. You can also watch a Russia Today TV video panel discussion about Obama's new presidency and the possibility for changes in U.S.-Russia relations.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko and then Russian President Vladimir Putin Photo by: Xinhua
In a sign that people are getting used to the perennial haggling between Russia and Ukraine over the price of natural gas, the AFP is reporting some of the jokes (anekdoty) making their rounds among the Russian and Ukrainian publics. Interestingly, while many of them mock the Kremlin for taking a tough line on gas prices with Ukraine, many more make fun of the Ukrainian leadership for its constant infighting and inability to keep the gas flowing.
Click on the extended post to read excerpts from the AFP story.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's New Year 2009 Address to the Nation
Charles Ganske
President Medvedev's speech
Every year on New Year's Eve Russia's President gives a speech to the Russian nation. This year was the first time in eight years that Vladimir V. Putin would not be giving the address. Instead, it was his handpicked successor, Dmitry Medvedev. As could be expected after a tough year for many Russian families, Medvedev's speech emphasized home, individual dreams and aspirations, and the importance of family in difficult times.
As a tribute to Paul Weyrich, Russia Blog is reposting below this article two of his op-eds published earlier this year on topics related to Russia. We hope our readers enjoy them and remember Weyrich for who he was -- a lifelong advocate of ordered liberty in America and around the world.
- The Editors
Paul Weyrich, the founder and longtime CEO of the conservative Free Congress Foundation, died on December 18, 2008, at the age of 66. Born in 1942, Weyrich began his career as a young newspaper and radio reporter in Kenosha, Wisconsin, and as an activist in the groundbreaking 1964 campaign of Republican Senator Barry Goldwater. While working as press secretary for Colorado U.S. Senator Gordon L. Allott, Weyrich formed a friendship with Jack Wilson, an aide to the brewing magnate Joseph Coors. In 1973, with $250,000 in seed money from Joseph Coors, Weyrich, Wilson and Ed Fuelner founded the Heritage Foundation, which would become one of the most influential non-profit public policy institutes in the world and a model for other think tanks, including the Seattle-based Discovery Institute.
The funeral for Alexy II, Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia, is starting at this hour (1200 PST, 0800 GMT, 1100 MSK) in Moscow's Christ the Savior Cathedral. Alexy will be buried this afternoon at the Bogoyavlensky Monastery (Church of the Epiphany) in Moscow. Thousands of people are expected to gather outside the monastery and along the route of the funeral motorcade through the city.
Russia Today TV is providing exclusive English-language coverage live from Christ the Savior Cathedral. If you have a fast Internet connection, you can watch the live video feed here.
UPDATE: 0900 PST Click on the extended post to read an excerpted news story from the AFP.
The funeral for Alexey will begin Tuesday, December 9, 2008 at 11 a.m., in the Cathedral of Christ the Savior in Moscow. President Dimitry Medvedev, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, and other Russian dignitaries and national figures will be in attendance. Alexey will be buried Tuesday afternoon at the Bogoyavlensky Monastery (Church of the Epiphany) in Moscow.
Panikhida services praying for the Patriarch are being said in Russian Orthodox Churches all over the world today and tomorrow. In the last forty eight hours, thousands of mourners have filed in to the Cathedral of Christ the Savior, while thousands more have lined up outside the church along the Moscow embankment, standing in freezing temperatures to pay their respects. Over 600 churches in and around Moscow rang their bells this weekend to announce the Patriarch's passing, an event unprecedented in the history of post-Soviet Russia.
The cold shoulder President Medvedev gave President-Elect Obama a few days ago seems to be warming all the time. The Washington Timesreports:
Russian leaders are offering an olive branch to the incoming Obama administration in hopes that it will scrap a planned missile-defense system based in Poland and the Czech Republic.
Russian President Dimitry Medvedev told French journalists that he had spoken by phone with President-elect Barack Obama and that they hoped to meet as soon as possible.
"I hope ... we'll be able to find a way out of these [difficult] situations, which we haven't been able to do with our current colleagues," Mr. Medvedev said in the interview, which was broadcast Thursday.
Please visit the extended post to read the entire article.
The opposition in Georgia finally found its voice, thanks to the international investigations into Saakashvili's policies and attention from the Western media (Photo by Spiegel)
What really happened to provoke the recent crisis in the Caucusus--a crisis that gravely set back Western relations with Russia--is bound to get more scholarly scrutiny with the passage of time. This latest report, in any event, is not going to help the Georgian picture.
Regardless, isn't it amazing how things have changed since August? The price of oil collapsed, and with it the urgency over pipeline routes and prices in Central Europe. Because of the financial panic, Russia's sense of invulnerability has been set back. Public perceptions of the Kremlin leadership may be deteriorating along with the market--though Russia is not yet in a recession like America is experiencing. And the U.S. has a new president-elect. President Medvedev's challenge to that new president-elect has not gone down as well in Russia as might have been expected. In short, hardly anyone is really thinking about Georgia now. What a shift!
Newly available accounts by independent military observers of the beginning of the war between Georgia and Russia this summer call into question the longstanding Georgian assertion that it was acting defensively against separatist and Russian aggression. Instead, the accounts suggest that Georgia's inexperienced military attacked the isolated separatist capital of Tskhinvali on Aug. 7 with indiscriminate artillery and rocket fire, exposing civilians, Russian peacekeepers and unarmed monitors to harm.
The Akula class submarine has been marketed by Russia to India's Navy
The Russian Navy has witnessed three high profile fatal accidents at sea in the last ten years: the 2000 sinking of the Kursk in the Barents Sea; the 2003 sinking of a retiring sub that went down with 11 sailors on board; and now another mishap on board an attack submarine in the Pacific Fleet this weekend, which suffocated 20 Russian sailors and left 21 others hospitalized.
The incident happened Saturday as the Nerpa, a (NATO designated) Akula II class nuclear-powered attack submarine, was undergoing its first major sea trials after leaving its base near the Russian Far East port of Vladivostok. A freon fire control system unexpectedly activated, suffocating crew members who were caught in the affected compartments. Apparently the crew members did not have access to or were not trained to use their emergency respirator devices to breathe.
Construction on the Akula boat reportedly began in 1991 and funds only became available to complete the submarine in the last few years. Russia's Navy remains a shadow of its Soviet predecessor, with poor crewmember pay and thin to non-existent budgets for training in the past fifteen years taking their toll on a service that the Putin/Medvedev Administration seeks to reconstitute. In October 2008 President Medvedev proposed that Russia build new aircraft carrier battle groups, complete with aircraft, support ships and submarines. But this vision seems to be little more than a fantasy, in light of the global economic crisis and falling oil export revenues undercutting the Russian federal budget.
Click on the extended post to read an excerpt from the Associated Press story about this tragedy.
Medvedev Wants "Fresh Start" in U.S.-Russia Relations, But Doesn't Start Fresh Himself
Yuri Mamchur
Dmitry Medvedev delivering the speech (Photo by AP)
Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's President, yesterday addressed Russia's Federal Assembly on issues of national security, domestic problems and the global financial crisis. The speech was delivered shortly after it became clear that Barack Obama had been elected as the next President of the United States of America. Surveys showed that Russians favored Obama's candidacy over Senator McCain's, hoping, many said, for a friendlier and more cooperative relationship between the two countries.
Sad to report, Medvedev's words did not live up to these expectations. Either the speech was already prepared and the Russian president did not want to deviate from it, or Medvedev sincerely wished to start the new relationship with his future American counterpart by throwing down a challenge and continuing the old rhetoric. So, instead of extending congratulations to the American President-elect, Medvedev used his address to assure America that if it does not back away from its plan for a missile defense system in Russia's backyard, Russia will put short-range missiles and a radio-jamming installation in Kaliningrad. Western news agencies called Medvedev's statement a "first test" for Obama's presidency.
Congressman Jerrold Nadler: "Let Russia Invade Georgia"
Charles Ganske
Congressman Jerrold Nadler (D-NY)
Congressman Jerrold Nadler (D-NY) travelled to Florida last week to campaign for the national Democratic ticket led by Senator Barack Obama. Nadler gave a speech urging an audience of mostly Jewish retirees at a synagogue in Boca Raton, Florida to support Obama's bid for the American presidency. Nadler did not expect his off-the-cuff statements about Obama's controversial former pastor from Chicago (the Rev. Jeremiah Wright) and the Russia-Georgia conflict to end up on YouTube. However, Pamela Geller, a pro-McCain conservative blogger who publishes a blog called Atlas Shrugs, recorded Nadler's candid response to skeptical questions from his audience.
Today Fox News anchor Greta Van Susteren and the Associated Press picked up the story of the controversy over Nadler's remarks. Given that today is election day in America, Nadler's comment that Obama "didn't have the political courage" to leave his controversial former church in Chicago received far more attention in the media than his comments related to Russia.
U.S. Election Day 2008: The Electoral Map and Math
Charles Ganske
John McCain and Barack Obama
Today is election day in the United States of America. Most public opinion polls are showing either a statistical dead heat or predicting that Democrat Senator Barack Obama will narrowly defeat Republican Senator John McCain in the race for the White House. National public opinion surveys also suggest that Democrats will enlarge their majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. However, four years ago, many exit polls inaccurately predicted a win for Democrat Senator John Kerry over incumbent Republican President George W. Bush. As of Tuesday afternoon, the presidential contest appears to be close, not necessarily in the popular vote count but in state by state races.
Russians and other foreigners may not be aware of how the American presidency is decided. The winner is not determined by the margin of popular votes cast for a particular candidate nationwide, but by whichever ticket gathers the most delegates from the electoral outcomes in all 50 U.S. states. This article explains where the American election is most likely to be decided.
Russians Get News on American Elections that Even Americans Don't Get
Yuri Mamchur
Elephant Valery and donkey Sister voted at a Californian zoo. The animals probably have no clue that they betrayed their parties...
The Russian news media covers American elections in almost greater detail than the American media does. Russian readers can find plenty of information about both American presidential candidates, the scandal involving Alaska Senator Ted Stevens, an alleged murder conspiracy against Obama, Sarah Palin's love for fine clothes and hockey, and Barack's infomercial blanketing of American TV channels. However, the Russian mainstream media also gives a fair amount of coverage to minor party American presidential candidates, who, somehow, are largely ignored in their own country.
"Debates in a Margin of Error" by Gazeta.ru (Russia's most popular online news source) describes the debates between independent candidate Ralph Nader and constitutionalist candidate Chuck Baldwin. According to Gazeta.ru, the debates took place at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington D.C. and were attended by "journalists and students of the Washington University." The presidential candidate of the Green Party, Cynthia McKinney, and the Libertarian candidate Robert Barr did not attend the debates because of their "conflict of schedules." The correspondent for Gazeta.ru was disappointed with the lack of contention between the two debating candidates. Basically, both Nader and Baldwin agreed that the bi-partisan system is old and ineffective, Americans need "change", and the free market can do a better job than the government.
Cars carrying members of the Russian delegation leave an isolated manor house in Vantaa, outside Helsinki, Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2008. (Photo by AP)
The meeting was organized at the request of the Russians and held at the Königstedt Manor along the Vantaa River, just outside Helsinki. The talks were organized without any urgent reason, and were devoted to the discussion of the mutual concerns and interests. American Admiral Mullen said: "Even in our darkest days of the cold war we were talking to each other -- and I think we need to continue."
Obviously, the United States and Russia should be talking about military relations--and many other issues, too. So, good for the Bush Administration and the Medvedev/Putin (or Putin/Medvedev) government in Russia. But just as obviously, this sort of thing should have been going on already. Russia and the United States are not natural adversaries, unlike the old days. But the potential for real misunderstandings and miscalculations is huge. The Russian-American relationship deserves intensive rebuilding efforts.
On Tuesday night Democrat Senator Barack Obama of Illinois and Republican Senator John McCain of Arizona met at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee for the second presidential debate. As expected, the main topic in the town hall style question and answer forum was the global economic crisis, followed by government spending, taxes and energy policy.
At one point, in response to a question about his priorities as president, Senator Obama declared that the U.S. could no longer afford to annually transfer billions in wealth to major oil producers abroad, specifically mentioning Russia, Venezuela and Iran in that category. Obama then touted his ten year plan that he says will reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil and promote alternative energy technologies.
Sarkozy Supports Medvedev's Proposed Reform of European Security
Yuri Mamchur
French and Russian Presidents Nicholas Sarkozy and Dmitry Medvedev delivered key speeches during the World Policy Conference in Evian, France, on October 8. The Russian President publicized his concept of international security. According to Medvedev, a new treaty needs to replace the 1975 accords reached at the Helsinki conference and unite the Euro-Atlantic region under one "game plan."
The outlined concept consists of five rules (posted below) that follow the Kremlin's desire for a more "multi-polar" world. The bottom line is that there should be no single nation with exclusive rights for providing security in Europe, and that military intervention will be avoided as a tool of solving problems or as a response to a threat to countries linked by a mutual defense agreements. The Medvedev address was followed by Sarkozy's speech, in which the French President supported Medvedev's idea of fundamentally changing the Euro-Atlantic security structure.
Olmert Meets with Medvedev; Israel Presses Russia on Arms Sales to Iran
Yuri Mamchur
Israeli Prime-Minister Ehud Olmert and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in Moscow (Photo by Itar-Tass)
The sale of S-300 surface to air missiles by Russia to Iran has not been confirmed either by Moscow or Teheran. However, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert urged Russia against selling weapons to Iran in his meetings with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday and Tuesday. The best version of the S-300 system, known by NATO as the SA-20, can track 100 targets and fire on planes 120 kilometers away. Hours before Olmert's arrival, Rosoboronexport, the Russian arms export agency, said that it had no information on Russian plans to deliver the SAM system to either Iran or Syria, reported Russia's Interfax news agency.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hassan Qashqavi said: "Iran's defensive might is based on our indigenous capabilities, and whatever action that helps with expanding and strengthening our military and defensive might, we'll look into that. We have good defense cooperation with the Russians. One example would be anti-aircraft systems. We have had good cooperation and we continue to cooperate with them."
On Monday, October 6, the Russian market experienced perhaps the worst day in its history. Despite several trading pauses, total market losses equaled to 19 percent. Some Russian blue chip stocks lost nearly 40 percent. Declining oil prices didn't help the markets either. The dollar-denominated RTS index dropped to 867 points, while the ruble-denominated MICEX halted trading when its index dropped by 18.66 percent, closing at 749.66 points.
Russian companies saw their equity value evaporate on both Moscow and London exchanges. In London, shares of Russia's "Norilsky Nickel" lost 44.28%, VTB -- 36.18%, "Tatneft" - 45,23%, «Uralkaly» -- 47,78%, Rosneft» --39,77%, LUKoil -- 36,09%, «Surgutneftegaz» -- 31,25%, Х5RETAIL -- 26,12%. In Moscow, "Norilsky Nickel" plummeted 37.67%, "Rosneft" -- 27.41%, Gazprom -- 24.42%, LUKoil -- 24.16%, "Surgutneftegaz" -- 22.92%, MTS -- 21.21%, Sberbank -- 16.32%, VTB -- 24.5%.
McCain Slams Russia in First Presidential Debate Both Candidates Support Ukraine, Georgia NATO Membership
Charles Ganske
Last night in Oxford, Mississippi on the campus of Ole Miss University the Democrat and Republican contenders for the White House clashed in their first presidential debate. The topic of foreign policy had been agreed to in advance, but given the extraordinary financial crisis impacting the U.S. this week, tax and spending policies were also key topics for PBS moderator Jim Lehrer. To Lehrer's credit, as usual, he didn't let either candidate excessively interrupt the other, while highlighting their areas of disagreement.
No surprise, Senator John McCain declared his distaste for the Kremlin. McCain said: "Russia has now become a nation fueled by petro-dollars that has basically become a KGB apparatchik-run government...I looked in Mr. Putin's eyes and I saw three letters -- a K, a G and B."
Russian Travel: Russians and Israelis Will Visit Each Other Without Visas
Yuri Mamchur
Russian international travel passport. Russians have two passports, one for internal use and one for international travel.
Starting at 1 a.m. on September 20, 2008, Russian tourists can visit Israel without visas. All they need to have is a foreign travel passport valid for at least six months on the date of entry. (Russians have two passports -- one for domestic use and one for travelling abroad). Russian visitors have to be ready to present booked return flights, hotel reservations or letters of invitation from relatives, and funds availability for the period of their stay. The entry to the country is free, and maximum visa-free stay cannot exceed 90 days at a time.
The agreement between Russia and Israel is mutual and was signed on March 20, however, it took half a year to figure out the legal nuances. The law is the result of close ties between the two nations. Many families have relatives in both countries, the result of the mass immigration from the Soviet Union to Israel in the 1970s and 1990s. Sixteen percent of Israelis are fluent in the Russian language, and Israeli government and businesses often provide information in Russian. The Russian language is semi-official in Israel and featured on roadway signs in some areas of the country.
Last Sunday morning Aeroflot Nord Flight 821 crashed near the city of Perm in the Ural Mountains, killing all 81 passengers and crew members on board. The flight took off from Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport around midnight and crashed into a ravine several miles from the Perm airport at 3:10 a.m. Moscow time. The cause of the crash remains unknown. Russia's Air Accident Investigation Commission of the Interstate Aviation Committee is leading the investigation, with assistance from the American National Transportation Safety Board, the U.S. Federal Aviation Authority, and Boeing.
The Economist Hosts Oxford-Style Online Debate on Russian-Western Relations
Yuri Mamchur
On Tuesday, September 9th, The Economiststarted debating the West's response to renewed Russian assertiveness for two-weeks as part of an ongoing, Oxford-style Online Debate Series. We thought readers of Russia Blog would find this debate relevant and wanted to give our readers an invite to participate and be heard alongside notable experts on the topic. Below is a sneak peek at the Pro and Con opening statements that posted on Tuesday.
Crisis in the Caucasus: A Unified Timeline, August 7-16, 2008
Nicolai N. Petro
Russian tanks crossing the Roki Tunnel (photo by NYT)
First compiled on August 28, 2008, this timeline is continuously being revised as more information becomes available. The latest PDF version can be downloaded from my web site.
This unified timeline of the onset of the crisis in the Caucasus is based on the detailed timelines available on the web sites of the Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Russia Today news service. These have been supplemented with various Georgian, Russian, and international press reports (references in brackets refer to the list of sources at the end of this document: "G" for Georgian, "R" for Russian, "M" for miscellaneous). For convenience all local times have been converted to GMT (UTC) which, at the time these events unfolded, was GMT (UTC) +4 in both Moscow and Tbilisi. There is surprisingly little disagreement about the actual sequence of events. Those that exceed two hours are noted with italics. My comments, in yellow at the bottom, attempt to highlight some notable findings.
Russian Scholars Take Up Suddenly Controversial Topic of U.S.-Russian Relations
Yuri Mamchur
Edward Lozansky, President of the American University in Moscow and a frequent contributor to Russia Blog, is a featured speaker this Thursday, September 11, 2008 at "U.S.-Russian Relations: The Way Forward," a conference the university is co-sponsoring with the Institute of Social and Political Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences. (For Moscow area residents, it is from 11 AM to 2 PM at the Academy's headquarters on Leninsky Prospect 32a, Presidential Hall.)
Speakers include:
Alexander Bessmertnykh, President, Foreign Policy Association
James Collins, former U.S. Ambassador to Moscow, Director of Russian Programs at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Vladimir Dvorkin, Institute of World Economy & International Relations
Rose Gottemoeller, Director, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Moscow Office
Andrei Kokoshin, Committee on Science and Technology, Russian State Duma
Robert Legvold, Professor of Political Science, Columbia University
Edward Lozansky, President, American University in Moscow
Gennady Osipov, Director, Institute of Social and Political Research, RAS
Sergei Rogov, Director, Institute of USA and Canada, Russian Academy of Sciences
According to the promotional announcement we received: "The events in Georgia have brought U.S.-Russian relations to a new low. Escalation of negative and confrontational rhetoric on both sides may result in the drastic reduction of the cooperative agenda. However, considering the grave implications for such policy one must concentrate on searching and preserving safe havens for continuous cooperation. The nuclear agenda, Iran, the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, and many other crucial security areas should not be made hostage to regional conflicts."
The war in South Ossetia and Georgia, though appalling, resulted in fewer deaths and damage than originally reported. It is still not "over" and probably won't be for some time. Meanwhile, it definitely did serious damage to Russia's relationship with the West. In some ways, relations are worse than at any time since well before the collapse of the USSR--in other words, in roughly a quarter century.
We are going to say a lot more on this, and we are not inclined to be particularly laudatory to any of the players. The war has not made any country look good.
Meanwhile, before the war we wrote a report on Ten Reasons Americans Should Care About Russia. It follows, and, as you will see, it remains valid. Perhaps as tempers cool, people of good will can consider what is at stake; what there is to gain, and what there is to lose.
There is a certain game-playing going on in the Caucasus that is not very confidence-inspiring.
The U.S. Coast Guard cutter, Dallas at Georgia's Black Sea port of Batumi, Wednesday, Aug. 27, 2008. The Dallas, had originally been slated to dock at the Black Sea port of Poti, which is still controlled by Russian forces. (Photo and story by AP)
US, Russia Anchor Military Ships in Georgian Ports By Sergei Grits and Jim Heintz
Associated Press
BATUMI, Georgia (AP) -- A U.S. military ship loaded with aid docked at a southern Georgian port Wednesday, and Russia sent three missile boats to another Georgian port as the standoff escalated over a nation devastated by war with Russia.
The dockings came a day after Russian President Dmitry Medvedev recognized two Georgian rebel territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states, prompting harsh criticism from Western nations.
Who would have imagined that barely after the guns stopped in South Ossetia, the principal conductor of the London Symphony, Valery Gergiev, who also is lead guest conductor of the New York Metropolitan Opera, would appear out of the smoke to lead a classical musical requiem for the war dead?
Gergiev, it seems, is a native of Ossetia, and his performance of Tchaikovsky's Fifth Symphony and Shostrakovich's Seventh Symphony was surely one of the few propaganda coups--and the classiest--that Russia has had in the current international crisis. One can note that the numbers of war dead are turning out to have been exaggerated in early reports, and one can hope that people will find a resonance in their hearts for all of them--on both sides. That might cause reasonable men of good will to seek real peace.
Many have wondered whether the conflict in U.S.-Russian relations over Georgia was going to affect business relations between private corporations of the two countries. Tentative indications are "no." Last week, reports Reuters, Best Buy Co Inc (BBY.N), the leading U.S. retail electronics chain, expanded into Russia, having registered its Future Shop trademark to operate in the fast-growing market. Victoria's Secret, owned by Limited Brands (LTD.N), and Japanese retailer Muji have also registered trademarks in Russia this month, Kommersant reported, as a decade of economic growth continues to boost wages and demand for high-end goods.
Vedomosti newspaper, citing the government patent agency Rospatent, said Best Buy had entered its license application for Future Shop, a Canadian subsidiary, in 2006, but has never voiced any intentions of opening stores in Russia. Rospatent has registered the Future Shop brand and is still reviewing the application for the Best Buy trademark, Vedomosti reported. Kommersant also reported that Best Buy had this month been granted Russian trademark rights for Future Shop. The move of Victoria's Secret, Bes tBuy, and Rospatent, most likely, has no relationship to the ongoing conflict, but is a great indicator that the American-Russian business has a bright future.
"Russians in Georgia: Behind the harrowing individual tales of destruction and want, analysts see a clash between the US and Russia reminiscent of old Cold War divisions," reports BBC News.
The Washington Post has perhaps the best report so far on how the war in South Ossetia and Georgia got started. It is astonishing how this episode ignited a torrent of abuse and prejudice, second guessing and histrionics on both sides.
Ambassador Bruce Chapman's Radio Interview About the Russian-Georgian Conflict
Bruce Chapman
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, right, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, left, look on during a news conference at the presidential residence in the Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi, on Friday, Aug. 15, 2008.
Listen to my interview about the Russian-Georgian conflict on Seattle 710 KIRO AM's Dave Ross Show from August 14, 2008 by downloading this file. For an easy download, please, click on the link with the right button of your mouse and choose an option "save target as." After the podcast file is uploaded, you can open it with Windows Media Player or any other free media software.
The BBC is reporting this on the US Secretary of State's visit to Tbilisi:
"Ms Rice will present President Mikhail Saakashvili with a European Union-brokered ceasefire deal, but he has said he would need 'a closer look' before signing. The Russian President, Dmitry Medvedev, has demanded that Georgia sign the deal immediately - but said only Russia could guarantee peace in the region."
But we were told several days ago, and everyone has assumed, that President Sarkozy, when he arrived in Tbilisi with the Medvedev-Sarkozy plan, already succeeded in getting President Saakashvili's signature on the document. Now it seems to remain an open option.
If the BBC report is true, there is no ceasefire between the Russian and Georgia forces.
Intelligence Failure on Georgia: Open an Investigation
Bruce Chapman
President George Bush, flanked by Condoleezza Rice, the Secretary of State, and Robert Gates, the Secretary of Defense, announced that he is sending Rice to Georgia and directed Gates to start humanitarian missions. Later on Thursday, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said he sees no need to invoke American military force in the war between Russia and Georgia. (EPA/Times Online/AP)
The precipitating event in the war in South Ossetia and Georgia was the Georgian shelling of Tskhinvali. That either provided an "excuse" for the Russians to invade or a justifiable "reason". Either way, without that shelling the outbreak of war was unlikely.
How did it happen? Why were the Georgians so reckless? Some Russians say it was part of a plan to annex South Ossetia by force. Georgians say it was in response to provocations (the Russians supposedly set the Georgians up).
There also are different views of what America's role was at that time. Some Russians suppose that the United States knew and approved of the attack.
Relatives of Oleg Golovanov, a Russian soldier killed during the fighting between Georgia and Russia, mourned during his funeral in Vladikavkaz, Russia. (Photo by The New York Times)
International reporting is definitely improving, but the holes are still major. For example, it is said in a Wall Street Journal op-ed that the Russians tried to bomb the Georgian oil pipeline, but there is no actual reporting to sustain this claim. Likewise, there is a reporting lacuna on what exactly precipitated the Georgian shelling of Tskhinvali. What exact provocations were they responding to? Their own story on this deserves to be heard. Was it something specific or general, or what? Did the Russians agitate the Ossetian militia; if so, how?
So, when did the "war" begin?
Meanwhile, there is no doubt that we have seen a serious diplomatic and political debacle for Georgia, the U.S. and even Russia, and to an extent, the European Union. Gratefully, the war--once it had been engaged--does not seem to have realized the extent of killing feared early on. It could have been worse. Of course, if you or someone you know is one of the statistics, that is no consolation.
President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia, left, with President Nicolas Sarkozy of France in Tbilisi (photo by The New York Times)
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has two valuable video clips worth noting: the first is the South Ossetia/Georgia chronology of fighting, the second the rally of Eastern European leaders in Tbilisi three days ago.
The chronology is useful because it shows the confusion about whom provoked whom first, though there is no doubt that the Georgians did start the shelling, giving Russia reason to invade. This, along with the US government failure to figure out what was going on in time to stop it, has to constitute the disaster's precipitating blunder.
When Russian army was advancing, Georgian troops, police, and city officials ran in disarray, leaving military equipment, cities, and citizens behind. (watch the Times Online video)
It is very difficult to understand exactly what is happening in Gori but it is clear that it is bad and getting worse.
The BBC is there and, looking at their reports (also this link) it seems clear that the civil authorities have fled and that people are being murdered and robbed. My suspicion is that, apart from the usual criminal elements who take advantage of power vacuums, it is probably Ossetians seeking revenge.
"Deputy chief of the headquarters of the peacekeeping force Maj. Gen. Borisov today travelled to Gori especially to discuss questions of Georgian troop withdrawal with the local administration and law enforcers. Unfortunately, he did not discover any local leaders in the city".
President Sakozy (left) and President Medvedev (right). "President Nicolas Sarkozy has shown a flair for the high-profile diplomatic intervention," reports BBC. (Photo by AFP). Russia and Georgia declared today, August 13, 2008, a Day of Mourning for the victims of the conflict.
France, which currently holds the Presidency of the EU, in the persons of President Sarkozy and Foreign Minister Kouchner, has induced President Saakashvili to sign the Medvedev-Sarkozy agreement.
According to both President Medvedev's office and a French news agency the terms are as follows:
1. Tbilisi must make a commitment not to use force to settle its secessionist problems.
2. Georgian armed forces must cease fire.
3. Georgian armed forces must return to their barracks.
Russian soldiers sit atop military vehicles in South Ossetia
TSKHINVALI, Georgia -- The Kremlin said Tuesday that it was suspending military action in the separatist enclave of South Ossetia inside Georgia, but huge Russian military convoys still snaked toward the scarred capital, Tskhinvali.
After five days of fighting -- Russia's biggest use of force outside its borders since the 1991 Soviet collapse -- a victorious Russian army offered a small group of foreign journalists a carefully controlled glimpse of the territory it went to war over.
War in Georgia: Too Many Arguments, Not Enough Facts
Bruce Chapman
Ossetian civilians, just like the teenagers in Seattle and politicians in Washington, are trying to understand what is going on. It is just as hard to get the facts at the "ground zero" of the conflict as it is thousands of miles away.
True story from Seattle: Two teen-age girls were overheard at lunch yesterday:
"Did you see that the Russians have attacked Georgia?"
"No! Where? Atlanta?"
"I'm not sure!
"Like, why would they DO that?"
Well, those girls are not much far behind the mentality of the political and media--and think tank--classes these past few days. People should be wary about the lack of information, let alone perspective. But that hasn't stopped the opinion classes from offering their dire analyses and even more dire recommendations. We could link to literally hundreds of opinion pieces about the significance of what has happened in the "war in Ossetia and Georgia."
But before we opine further on this here, some questions:
Are the US and Russia Heading for Another Cold War?
Edward Lozansky
Edward Lozansky leaning on piano at the Russian Cultural House in Washington D.C. during the World Russia Forum (May 2008).
Edward Lozansky, senior advisor to Discovery Institute's Real Russia Project and the President and Founder of the American University in Moscow, participated yesterday on the discussion panel "Are the US and Russia Heading for Another Cold War?" on the National Public Radio's program "To the Point." Other program participants were: Paul Rimple (Reporter, Christian Science Monitor), Janusz Bugajski (Director of the New European Democracies Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies), and Steve Clemons (Director, New America Foundation).
We encourage our readers to listen to the podcast of the show.
Discovery Institute and the War in Ossetia and Georgia
Bruce Chapman
Russian troops crossing the Russian-Georgian border.
"Truth is the first casualty of war," as is always said about now, because that statement is almost always right. And the second casualty is surely civilized restraint. Wars are easy to start, hard to contain, let alone end.
Right now, the surprising events in South Ossetia and Georgia represent a clash of information and interpretations. This is getting sorted out, but slowly. However, the events themselves are moving with agonizing speed.
For a couple of years now Discovery Institute's Russia Blog has been almost unique in representing otherwise ignored news about Russia, Eastern Europe and Eurasia. Often we provide access to news about business, culture and social developments that are occurring in a region that the West--including the USA--has tended to neglect since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Now we are faced with a war in Georgia that is as big a surprise to most people (diplomats, too, it appears) as it is an obvious catastrophe for the peoples involved and a historic setback for Russian/Western relations. The complications for other regions will soon develop.
Georgian soldiers helping an injured comrade. Georgian troops are wearing U.S. Marine camouflage uniforms; the only difference - the Georgian flag badges.
Ethnic separatism once again has further destabilized world geopolitics, with the outbreak of military conflict between Russia and Georgia over the breakaway regions of South Ossetia & Abkhazia; Russia also attacked Georgian targets in Abkhazia--and as of midday Monday has invaded Georgia and occupied Gori (Soviet dictator Josef Stalin's birthplace), just 55 miles from the Georgian capital of Tblisi.
While President Bush, out to lunch in China, watches swimming, basketball & baseball in Beijing, here is what one Georgian farmer told a British reporter: "Why won't America and NATO help us? If they won't help us now, why did we help them in Iraq?"
Four lessons come immediately to mind:
(1) the risk minor powers pose to major-power relations;
(2) the risk of excessive compartmentalization in policy;
(3) the risk from grossly misplaced strategic focus;
(4) the risk of making a fetish of democracy promotion--especially in the form of volatile multi-ethnic states.
Ossetian survivors of Georgian army attacks on Tshinvali are hiding in the basements of destroyed buildings without food and water
This article will ask and attempt to answer three questions:
1. War in Georgia: Russian aggression against an independent country or an indiscriminate Georgian assault against Ossetians overlooked by the U.S. media?
2. What would the United States have done if a bordering country (let's say Mexico) slaughtered 1,400 U.S. citizens and 10 U.S. soldiers overnight, leaving U.S. citizens by the tens of thousands without food and water?
3. If ethnic cleansing on Russian borders is none of Russia's business, and should not result in a Russian military response against the aggressor, how can one explain NATO's bombing and occupation of Serbia in 1999, a country that did not share a common border with the U.S. or other NATO members?
War in Georgia: Misreading Ossetia -- Chronology Matters
Patrick Armstrong
Georgian army rocket batteries firing on Ossetian cities and villages Friday, August 8. As the result of this bombardment, 1,400 civilians, including women and children, and 10 Russian peacekeepers died the first night of the Georgian attack. Hours later, Russian troops responded to protect Russian citizens and soldiers in the region.
"In addition to promoting the anti-science hoax of 'intelligent design,' the Discovery Institute runs a pro-Russian site called 'Russia Blog,' and today they come out in favour of Russia's brutal assault on the breakaway republic of South Ossetia".
As a contributor to this blog, I want to answer Mr. Johnson's guilt-by-association allegation. I personally have no use for "intelligent design" or other claims against evolution, but one would search Russia Blog's website in vain for any mention of this topic. And Mr. Johnson's characterization of "Russia's brutal assault on the breakaway republic of South Ossetia" gets it exactly backwards. Chronology is the key: it tells you here, as it so often does (in evolution as well) what is actually happening.
Russian peacekeepers at an anti-aircraft gun in the disputed region of South Ossetia
Yesterday, after Russia sent reinforcements to back up its peacekeepers under seige by the Georgian army in the tiny disputed territory of South Ossetia, Arizona Senator and Republican Presidential candidate John McCain denounced the move as "Russian aggression" against Georgia. Nevermind that it was the Georgian army which launched the offensive that ignited the present round of fighting, and thousands of refugees have been streaming out of South Ossetia into Russia in the last few days.
The reported death toll of over 1,400 is the worst the region has seen since 1992. In that year, the Soviet Union was formally dissolved, and South Ossetia and Abkhazia, both regions with strong ethnic ties to compatriots in Russia, were ceded to Georgia within their Soviet-drawn borders. After the U.S. and NATO countries recognized the independence of Kosovo in early 2008, the South Ossetians and Abkhazians decided that they could declare their independence from Georgia, which has sparked the recent violence.
UPDATE - August 10, 2008 Welcome, Instapundit and Little Green Footballs readers! Please click here to read Russia Blog contributor Patrick Armstrong's excellent post responding to LGF blogger Charles Johnson. Click on the extended post to read the author's response to some of the questions and comments written elsewhere about this post.
War in Georgia? Caucasus Violence Took Europe by Surprise
Yuri Mamchur
Follow news of the Russia-Georgia conflict as its develops with the Newswire headlines on the top left side of this website.
Russian tanks surge into South Ossetia to protect Russia's citizens and peacekeepers after the Georgian Army attacked the breakaway region this week, killing over 1,400 civilians. Georgia has claimed South Ossetia as its territory since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1992, while South Ossetian separatists have sought independence and perhaps union with North Ossetian compatriots in Russia.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev: "In accordance with the constitution and federal law, I, as president of Russia, am obliged to protect the lives and dignity of Russian citizens wherever they are located. We won't allow the deaths of our compatriots to go unpunished."
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin: "War has started after a well-planned invasion." Putin appealed to world leaders for help.
Spokesman for President George W. Bush: "Russia and Georgia should cease hostilities and hold talks to end the conflict."
Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili: "Most decision makers have gone for the holidays. Brilliant moment to attack a small country."
Russia Blog: Our view is that it's not polite to start a war during the Olympic Games - a tradition that has celebrated peaceful athletic competition between nations since ancient times. The Georgian President, Mikheil Saakashvili decided to send his army into South Ossetia while major world leaders were attending the opening ceremony of 29th Olympiad in Beijing - after reassuring European Union chief envoy Javier Solana on Thursday that he had called for a unilateral ceasefire.
If Saakashvili and his advisors believe that being a strong U.S. ally means that they have a "green light" from Washington for these rash moves, they are sorely mistaken. A few hours after the fighting started, President Bush and Prime Minister Putin were discussing the crisis face to face at the Olympics.
Russian Federation Situation Report August 7, 2008
Patrick Armstrong
Five generals have been found guilty on corruption charges, and 757 criminal cases have been opened against legal officials in the government's fight against the corruption.
Solzhenitsyn. Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, a man of unshakeable integrity and courage, who did more to kill Soviet Communism than anyone else, died on Sunday. His body lay in state at the Academy of Sciences and Putin and Gorbachev paid their respects. He was buried yesterday at the Dmitriy Donskoy Monastery in Moscow and Medvedev attended. Lately he had begun to sound rather out-of-date but I suspect his influence will endure for many years.
Corruption. Medvedev signed his national anti-corruption plan and the Russian text is up on his website. A number of laws and amendments are expected to go to the Duma next month. Some features are restrictions and regulations for disposal of state assets and a provision by which companies can be responsible for the corrupt actions of employees. Speaking of which, the labor in the Augean Stables continues: so far this year, the military prosecution office says that five generals have been found guilty on corruption charges and the Investigative Committee states that 757 criminal cases have been opened against legal officials.
Solzhenitsyn in Vermont near his U.S. home in exile
Yesterday The New York Times and National Review offered contrasting profiles of the great Russian dissident and writer, who passed away at his home outside Moscow on Sunday. Russian Orthodox funeral services will be held tomorrow at the Dimitri Donskoy Monastery in Moscow, where Solzhenitsyn requested to be buried. The Donskoi necropolis houses the tombs of many prominent families and liberal scholars from 19th century Russia, the graves of Red Army soldiers who died defending Moscow from the invading Nazis, and anonymous victims of the NKVD buried by the Church. Solzhenitsyn, who fought his way into East Prussia in 1944-45 as a Red Army artillery officer, wanted to be buried close to his comrades.
Solzhenitsyn: In June 2007, then President Vladimir Putin (r.), who presented Alexander Solzhenitsyn with the State Prize, Russia's highest humanitarian award, visited the writer at his home on the outskirts of Moscow. (Photo by RIA Novosti)
One writer among the Soviet dissidents did the most to force Western awareness of the true nature of the Communist regime during our complacent years of the Sixties and Seventies. He was the same writer who did a huge service to the West in 1978 when, accepting an honorary degree at Harvard, he had the courage to tell the truth about Western materialism and spiritual decay. Solzhenitsyn was sage yet again in his characterization of the Russian Federation in recent years. He was a stern but enormously good prophet.
Thanks to energy prices, Russia has more than half a trillion dollars in reserves and US$44 billion in debts
The Duumvirate. I regard The Economist as a generally worthless commentator on Russia, useful only because it is a reliable guide to the "mean sea level" of conventional opinion. In its 6-12 October 2007 issue, it was confident "It has always been a question of how, not if, Vladimir Putin would retain power". Now it's not so sure: maybe Medvedev is in charge. Its latest piece (Johnson's Russia List/2008/130/6) finally understands that Putin could have amended the Constitution easily and run for a third term.
The point is not that The Economist has become any more thoughtful but that its change of mind is an indication that conventional opinion is coming around to the idea that maybe the whole thing wasn't, as the October 2007 headline read, "Vladimir Putin: The Never-Ending Presidency". Revisiting my five hypotheses, I am coming to think that the choice is now between Numbers 4 and 5: I never thought 1 and 2 very likely and 3 is certainly dead. For what it's worth, but presumably signalling new tactics if not a new strategy, there has been criticism of some of Putin's legacies appearing in the Russian press.
American flags waved in Berlin at the Obama's rally - a display of rediscovered friendship; some 200,000 Berliners turned out for the speech.
"In this century -- in this city of all cities -- we must reject the Cold War mind-set of the past, and resolve to work with Russia when we can, to stand up for our values when we must, and to seek a partnership that extends across this entire continent." -- Barack Obama, Berlin, Germany
Some say that Senator Barack Obama has little international experience and will have problems building bridges with leaders of foreign nations. However, today, Obama hit the bullseye on issues relevant to the world's biggest oil producer, one of its top military powers, and, simply put, the largest country in the world - Russia. Some experts on the Republican side who are familiar with the matter say that Obama might have a strong advantage over his GOP rival, Senator John McCain, as many world leaders would be more open to dialogue with a young charismatic president, rather than an old and experienced "Cold Warrior."
While Russians and Europeans embrace Obama's rhetoric, it is unclear how American voters will react to the international course taken by the presidential candidate.
"John McCain cannot win, but Obama can lose," said Senator Slade Gorton today during his lecture at the Discovery Institute in Seattle, Washington.
Can Obama bring back the fondness for America in the world?
Watch the video of Senator Obama's Berlin speech, and visit the extended post to read the text of the American presidential candidate's speech in Berlin.
Bloomberg: Putin to Meet Bush in Beijing After Missile Warning
Yuri Mamchur
By Henry Meyer and Sebastian Alison
Soviet-era Tupolev TU-160
July 21 (Bloomberg) -- Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will meet U.S. President George W. Bush next month after Russia warned it would respond militarily to U.S. plans to deploy a missile-defense system in eastern Europe. Putin will hold talks with Bush on the sidelines of the Olympic Games' opening ceremonies in Beijing, the Russian prime minister's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said today by telephone in Moscow. The Olympics will open on Aug. 8.
Russia may send military aircraft back to bases in Cuba in response to the U.S. missile-defense plans, Izvestiya reported today, citing an unidentified ``highly placed source.'' The government said on July 8 that it would react with ``military- technical'' means to the U.S. system, which it said threatens Russia's security. Russian leaders threatened to aim nuclear missiles at the planned bases in the Czech Republic and Poland.
Graft remains a serious problem in the Russian Federation
Corruption et al. Medvedev mused that some provision should be made for transferring assets held by civil servants into trusts and said a first draft of a national plan for combating corruption has appeared. A presidential aide suggested that "independent directors" might replace state officials in some state-owned companies. Of course if that turns out to be a way of letting former members of Putin's administration keep these lucrative positions... I can understand why you would want to place government officials in these important companies (remember Gazprom under Yeltsin?) but the problem then becomes: where do their interests now lie?
Balance in government. A Levada poll shows a probably important change in political reality. For years opinion polls have ranked the president distinctly higher than the PM or government. This was so even in the Yeltsin era (although all at very low levels in the latter years). What this poll shows is that Putin's presence has pulled the government rating up: in the 40s through most of his presidency, it is now in the 60s. At the same time his public approval rating remains in the 80s and Medvedev's is in the 70s. If this trend holds -- and why shouldn't it? -- Russia's political structure will be much better balanced than it has been. Further evidence, to my mind, of my fifth hypothesis.
The Spanish team showed admirable professionalism and fully deserved to go on to the final against Germany. Nearly twenty unscheduled flights with fans left Moscow for Vienna this morning. Russia lost, but there are no bad feelings towards the squad or its Dutch coach. A young Russian team looked tired and overmatched, but it achieved something that no one could have dreamed of just two weeks ago, and the country is proud of its players for reaching the semi-finals of the European championship. Tonight fireworks can be heard in major Russian cities, but there were no riots by upset fans. Many Russian families went to bed around 2 a.m. Moscow time with the full understanding that today their team faced highly experienced professionals - and it will compete at the highest levels again very soon.
Heavy rain and thunderstorms made the game hard on both teams, but it did not interrupt the satellite broadcast (as it happened yesterday during the game between Germany and Turkey).
Congratulations to Spain - we can't wait to see the final between German and Spanish teams this coming Sunday. The game, as usual, will be broadcast at 2:30 PM EST, 11:30 AM PST.
A Russian band and fans marching through the streets of Vienna before the game. Russian fans preferred taking photos with local statues dressed in Spanish jerseys, while Spanish fans enjoyed taking photos with Russian girls. The spirit was high and interactions were warm and friendly.More photos in extended post.
Semi-Finals Euro 2008: Russia vs. Spain 2:30 PM EST, 11:30 AM PST
Yuri Mamchur
Russian Soccer team training in Vienna on Tuesday We stongly recommend this video from CNN about Russia's victories this year.
Don't miss this historic game! This is the first time that a Russian (not Soviet) team has made it to the European quarter-finals and then semi-finals. Previously, no Russian team made it past the qualifying round of the Euro soccer tournament. Now, after conquering the previously undefeated Dutch team, the Russian squad, led by a Dutch coach, will play Spain in Vienna. The Russian parliament may advise Russian vendors to avoid sales of alcohol the day of the game. Even though such suggestion is not a law, many businesses will most likely listen to it, because the profits to be made from alcohol sales cannot compare with the losses suffered from damage caused by rowdy fans. Last Saturday to Sunday night (June 21-22, 2008), Moscow became the scene of the largest Russian public demonstration since victory day in World War II. The spontaneous celebrations in the city streets were peaceful and continued until 8 a.m.
Dutchman Guus Hiddink, Russia's coach, celebrates victory over the Dutch team
This past Saturday, another example of Russia's global resurgence was exhibited on the soccer pitch in Basel, Switzerland, in a thrilling quarter-final match between Russia and a highly thought of Dutch squad, at the European 2008 men's soccer tournament ("Euro '08").
Open container? Yes. To the Russian soccer team!
Playing inspired soccer from the start, Russia had several scoring opportunities. After a scoreless first half, Roman Pavlyuchenko connected for Russia's first goal (so far, Pavlyuchernko is Russia's leading scorer in the tournament). Later on in the second half, the Dutch answered with a well executed header from Ruud Van Nistelrooy. After a 1-1 tie in regulation time, the two sides played to a scoreless first half of extra time. In the second half of extra time, Dmitri Torbinsky and Andrei Arshavin scored to ice the game for Russia.
Fans in Red Square, Moscow, celebrate Russia's victory
Holland-Russia Soccer Game to be Nationally Televised in the U.S.
Michael Averko
Dutchman Guus Hiddink is the head coach of Russian men's national soccer team (photos by ESPN)
Throughout history, Russia has shown a willingness to utilize non-Russian know-how for greater advancement. As a case in point, Peter the Great studied shipbuilding in Holland and England, to enhance Russia's maritime status. In 2006, Dutchman Guus Hiddink was hired to coach the Russian men's national soccer team.
Prior to Hiddink's hiring, Russia's soccer program was in disarray. The quality level of a soccer coach has been known to greatly influence the level of a given program. Money was shelled out to Hiddink with that in mind. Hiddink has a good track record for improving the stature of the national soccer teams he has coached.
After a sluggish start in their first game of the men's European 2008 soccer tournament (a 4-1 loss to Spain), the Russian team won its games against Greece and Sweden. Russia now faces the daunting task of playing the highly regarded Dutch team in a quarter-final match.
First time in 20 years Russia got into the quarter-finals of Euro soccer championship. Russian team crushed Sweden with 2:0 score. (Photo by Reuters).
A Note on Filling the Page. Today is the 490th Thursday that I have done a Sitrep. I have always been able to fill a page, some days more easily than others. This is the hardest I've worked to do so. For some years, we have been living with the "Russian Question". One day, it, like the "Eastern Question" or the "German Question", will pass and there won't be enough happening to warrant weekly Sitreps. While that day is not here, we are, perhaps, closer to the desired end when Russia ceases to be a "Question" (with, FAR less bloodshed than the other two were settled, by the way, and far less than predicted by anyone). A "normal" Russia: one with which other countries may have trade disputes or strategic disagreements but will be confident that they can be settled "inside the box". It's a mixture of perception and reality: the latter changing much faster than the former.
Russian Tourism. A result of the growing prosperity of the Putin years has been a steady increase in tourism by Russians. 15 years ago the fear was millions of refugees; ten years ago thousands of criminals; the reality has become ordinary Russians on holiday. I have noticed this for some time but last year in the Mediterranean it was interesting to see that there are now enough of them to justify guidebooks in Russian everywhere and we often had a Russian couple beside us in a cafe. This Russia Blog post discusses the phenomenon. To my mind, the relative absence of such pieces in the mainstream media (although see JRL/2008/116/2) is a product of the meme that Russia is locked down by Putin and his Chekist minions. But, as Stalin understood, to really lock a country down, you can't let people out and you can't let people in. Perception and reality again.
Moscow's "fire starter" has claimed 35 cars, and nearly $300,000 worth of damage. Moscow police promised a $5,000 award for the information that would lead to capturing the maniac. Moscow citizens started patrolling their neighborhoods during night hours (more photos at the end of this post).
Medvedev's St Petersburg speech. In his speech opening the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum Medvedev said he wants to turn Moscow into a "powerful global financial center"; well, to do so would require a substantial reduction of corruption, criminality and opacity. He spoke of liberalizing the natural gas market and reducing taxes on the oil sector. He also spoke of helping to overcome the global food crisis (but how? more Russian wheat?). He took some shots at the USA's financial policies and mused about how the UN or some other global entity could do a better job. For the rest of the speech he tried to present a picture of Russia as a prosperous (1st Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov the following day said Russia would become the 6th largest economy by the end of the year), important and responsible participant in the world economy.
Russian Travel (Made Easy) Finally! Sheremetyevo Gets Connected to Downtown Moscow via High-Speed Rail
Yuri Mamchur
Russian travel made easy. Sheremetyevo express train will travel at 75-100 miles an hour, will take 25-35 minutes, and will cost only $10. The service begins... tomorrow! (Photo by Itar-Tass)
Sheremetyevo (Terminals 1, 2 and C) is Moscow's major international airport. The one to five hour drive that could be never predicted or estimated by Moscow drivers is finally unnecessary, once and for all. The airport welcomed the first high-speed express-train that departed from Savyolovskaya subway station and train station today (June 10, 2008). The opening ceremonial trip was just a trial and took longer than promised on the way from the airport for multiple safety checks. The railroad opens tomorrow (June 11, 2008) for regular operation. Dear foreigners and Moscow visitors, please, do not be fooled anymore by taxi drivers offering 100-200 euro cab rides to downtown, and read on.
The trains travel at 75 miles-an-hour with the capacity to go much faster. The Russian Railroads promises the 100 miles-an-hour travel to begin soon. Now it takes only 35 minutes and 250 rubles ($10) to get to the Sheremetyevo airport; 300 rubles ($12) for a business class car. While Sheremetyevo's Terminal 2 is connected to train station by a walkway, the shuttle-buses for Terminals 1 and C are available for 40 rubles ($1.60).
Sheremetyevo was the last airport, after Domodedovo and Vnukovo, to receive its own railroad. It costs $6 to get to downtown Moscow from Domodedovo airport (train stops at Paveletskaya subway station and train station), and $4 to get to Moscow from Vnukovo airport (train stops at Kievskaya subway station and train station). Furthermore, you can register for your flight and check in your luggage at the train station just an hour and a half prior to your flight departure, take the thirty-minute train ride, and step on a plane. Enjoy the express-trains and welcome to Moscow!
Medvedev Blames U.S. for Global Financial Crisis Reuters Reports
Yuri Mamchur
Dmitry Medvedev speaking at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 7, 2008 (Photo by Reuters)
ST PETERSBURG, Russia -- Russian President Dmitry Medvedev blamed "aggressive" United States policies on Saturday for the global financial crisis and said Moscow's growing economic muscle could be part of the solution.
"Failure by the biggest financial firms in the world to adequately take risk into account, coupled with the aggressive financial policies of the biggest economy in the world, have led not only to corporate losses," Medvedev told Russia's main annual event for international investors in St Petersburg. "Most people on the planet have become poorer."
Chancellor Angela Merkel was the first foreign leader to visit with Dmitry Medvedev in March, when he gave her a bouquet of flowers for International Womens' Day. Germany is the first Western country that Medvedev visited as a president.
Medvedev in Germany. The conversation appears to have been mostly about gas pipelines but Medvedev expressed concern about the "increasing gap between Russia and the West" on security issues and reiterated his intentions to effect a "qualitative transformation" of Russia.
Putin Interview. When he was in France, Putin gave an interview (English summary, Russian) to Le Monde. As usual, it's a straightforward unemotional statement of his views on present and past. It's a "one stop shopping" trip for Putin's view of things. The English summary above leaves out his remarks on Abkhazia where he, once again, attempted to educate a Western audience that the problem has deep roots that cannot be wished away.
Canada vs. Russia: Russia Takes Hockey World Title on May 18, 2008
Yuri Mamchur
Fans celebrating Russia's victory in the final of the World Hockey Championship on Manezh Square (Photo by AP)
Russia won World Hockey Championship for the first time since 1993 on May 18, 2008. The victory was overlooked by many in the United States due to local sports activities and also due to the fact that Russia has won too many competitions in May 2008; UEFA (soccer championship) on May 14, 2008, World Hockey Championship on May 18, 2008, and the Eurovision Music Contest on May 25, 2008.
"Ilya Kovalchuk's power-play goal in overtime for the 5-4 win in Quebec City, Canada, came just before midnight, but that didn't stop fans from holding an impromptu parade in the city center, where many had watched the final in bars..."
Please, visit the extended post to read the Moscow Times coverage of the event.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev poses for a group photo with students at Peking University in Beijing, capital of China, on May 24, 2008. Dmitry Medvedev delivered a speech at Peking University on Saturday. (by Xinhua Photo)
Medvedev visits. Medvedev made his first trip as president to Kazakhstan and China. Does this mean anything? Is it a statement of some sort? I don't know. Many countries have a tradition that the new leader visits his neighbours first. Putin, on the other hand, is in France.
Demographics. More signs that the situation is becoming less desperate: RosStat estimates the population as of 1 April to be 141.9 million. This is down 80,900 from the start of the year but this year's decline is rather less than 1st quarter figures from previous years (118,200 in 2007 and 200,800 in 2006). I am amused to note that some , even in the mainstream media, have started to notice the turnaround (although others have not).
Government. Putin has his new government. There are two 1st deputies: Viktor Zubkov and Igor Shuvalov (the latter will act for Putin in his absence); 5 Deputies: Sergey Sobyanin, Aleksandr Zhukov (a 1991 graduate of Harvard Business School who is fluent in English), Sergey Ivanov, Igor Sechin and Aleksey Kudrin. A "presidium" has been created of these plus the foreign, interior, defence, health and social development, agriculture and regional development ministers. In short: deputies, power ministers and national project ministers. Sergey Shoygu remains Emergency Situations Minister: he has held this position since 1991(!), through everything, and is consistently one of the most popular leaders in the country.
Speculation. The new government has sparked off effusions of neo-Kremlinology in which, as usual, commentators find evidence to support their pre-existing theories. I regard neo-Kremlinology as a waste of time for the following reasons. We do not yet know how the diumvirate will operate but their speeches all stress one thing: when Putin came to power I believe he saw his work in four main headings: tighten central control, improve the economy, improve Russia's standing in the world and introduce "rule of law" (more a "rule of rules" I think). He was reasonably successful in the first three but there has been little progress in the fourth. It appears to be the chief emphasis of Medvedev and Putin today, at least in their speeches.
Don't miss the annual World Russian Forum. The 2008 Forum will be held at the US Capitol in Washington D.C. on May 19-20. Please, visit the Russia House website to find out more about the forum and register for the event. Also see the extended post for the event agenda. Yours truly, Yuri Mamchur, will be a speaker on the panel "Russian Diaspora in the U.S and Its Role in Bolstering U.S. - Russian Relations."
"WORLD RUSSIAN FORUM 2008"
RUSSIA - USA
Towards Economic, Political and Military Alliance
May 19-20, 2008 Washington, DC
United States Capitol
Armored personnel carriers and trucks rehearse for Victory Day on Tverskaya near the Kremlin, April 29, 2008
For most international observers, the big story of Victory Day 2008 in Moscow is the revival of the Soviet tradition of parading heavy military equipment through Red Square. For most Russians, however, today is a well deserved day off, and it will be the most beloved holiday on the national calendar before Christmas and New Years.
Today, hundreds of thousands in Russia will be participating in public events across the country to thank surviving World War II veterans for their service, and to remember the millions who died to rid the world of Nazism.
Click on the extended post to read more thoughts and watch more YouTube videos about Victory Day.
Dmitry Medvedev during the inauguration ceremony in Kremlin
President Medvedev. Yesterday Dmitriy Medvedev was sworn in as President (watch the video and the photos). His speech, almost all domestically focused, hit the themes of economic modernization, social security and "legal nihilism". The tacit message was, as it has been, that continuity was assured. He did use the phrase "our great Russia" -- it will be amusing to see how many news outlets focus their attention on that.
Prime Minister Putin. Putin was confirmed today by the Duma (the Communists voted against him) and his speech too focussed on domestic matters: increasing the capital -- in all senses of the word -- of Russia. It is clear that Medvedev's and Putin's program is to concentrate on what might be termed qualitative improvements in Russia's domestic situation. Of course, in this sinful world, external events can arise ex nihilo and dominate the conversation.
Putin's Last Day As President... And First Day as Prime Minister
Charles Ganske
Russian President Vladimir V. Putin's farewell ceremony coincided with the Victory Day holiday Russia
Click on the extended post to watch another Russia Today TV video about the end of Mr. Putin's pivotal...and controversial...eight year term in the Russian presidency.
Interview with Henry Kissinger on the Future of U.S.-Russia Relations
Charles Ganske
As U.S. Secretary of State from 1973 to 1977, Henry Kissinger negotiated arms control agreements between the USA and USSR and the establishment of diplomatic relations between America and mainland Communist China. In this video the elderly diplomat sits down for a twenty minute interview with Russia Today TV and describes his vision of U.S.-Russia relations in the 21st century.
Russian Federation Weekly Situation Report May 2, 2008
Patrick Armstrong
The transition. What seems to be happening is that governing powers -- formerly almost all of which were concentrated in the Presidential Administration these past several years -- are being reassigned. A draft law has appeared that will delegate some of the central government's responsibilities to lower levels of government and some powers are apparently being shifted from the Presidential Administration to the government.
Meanwhile there are personnel changes that look like some of Putin's people moving over the government side to be ready for his arrival. I reiterate that it is still too early to know what The Plan is, but all this seems to support the hypothesis that Putin (and company) are setting up a certain division of powers between the Presidential Administration and the government. If (and this is a big if) this works in practice, it would be a good step: separation of powers is one of the secrets of successful governments.
Peak Oil? Or High Taxes?. Two weeks ago I quoted a Russian oil executive saying that Russian production had peaked; this week the CEO of Gazprom Neft says that he expects Russian production to continue to increase until the middle of the century (assuming that the industry gets the tax structure he thinks it ought to have).
Russian Federation Weekly Situation Report April 24 2008
Patrick Armstrong
DEMOGRAPHICS. The demographic picture in Russia continues to improve: RosStat claims 273,700 births in January and February (up 12.8% over the previous year) and 368,200 deaths (up 4.1%). A bill to restrict abortion advertising has been proposed and a Duma deputy gave some numbers here: in 2006 there were one and a half million abortions (40.3 per 1000 women) in Russia, down from the two million in 2002 (54.2 per 1000 women). So, this statistical evidence suggests that the various pro-natalist programs are having an effect. We don't know yet, of course, whether the programs actually are leading to more children, or just encouraging Russian women to have their babies sooner. New data coming in over the next few years will tell us.
INVESTIGATIVE COMMITTEE. More trouble. The head of the main investigative unit was fired; corruption being given as the reason. The usual rumors abound.
Currently I am in Almaty, Kazakhstan at the Eurasian Media Forum 2008. Today, I participated in the panel addressing the perceptions of the the Western media in its coverage of Russia, and the possibility of the return of the Cold War. The Eurasian Media Forum has gathered 600 distinguished participants, such as, President Nursultan Nazarbayev, his daughter Dr. Dariga Nazarbaeva, Mr. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Dr. Ariel Cohen of the Heritage Foundation, Mikhail Leontiev from "Odnako", Margarita Simonyan and Kevin Owen from Russia Today TV, multiple ambassadors, ministers, journalists, reporters and policy makers.
Please, view the extended post for the full agenda of the conference, and come back soon to view the photos of the conference and to read the new RRP report on the Stereotypes that Western media practices in its coverage of Russia. The report was prepared for the Forum and is available in print to those at the venue.
At the moment this post was published, the oil price, according to Bloomberg, was $114.85 per barrel. Russia has profited handsomely from higher world energy prices, but has also experienced inflation as a result of the flood of petrodollars
Putinology Outgoing Russian President Vladimir Putin is now Chairman of United Russia, the political structure (I'm not sure I would call it a real "party") that dominates Russia. But, oddly enough, he hasn't formally become a member. While we still can't be sure what Putin's Plan is, this would seem to point in the direction of my fifth hypothesis. He also apparently said he would become the Prime Minister of Russia if (!) asked. The next five or eight months will tell us more about what he has in mind.
Peak Oil?. The Financial Times quotes a vice president of LUKoil as saying that Russian oil production has peaked this year. Maybe so, but the End of Oil has been predicted many times and historically, this has been a bad bet. I believe that the first prediction that the world would run out is over a century old and the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency famously predicted in the 1980s that Soviet production had peaked. Post Soviet Russia, separated from oil rich republics like Kazahkstan and Azerbaijan, briefly surpassed Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer in 2006.
Grigory Yavlinsky, the most prominent liberal in Russian politics (photo by AP)
Bush-Putin Meeting. Contrary to expectations, there appears to have been no breakthrough on the contentious issues of NATO expansion or missile defense at the Russian President's retreat in Sochi.
Hubris and the Limits of Russia's Revival. There is no doubt that Putin's two terms have been remarkably successful: eight years ago, many observers were ready to write Russia off completely (examples here, here, and here) and Putin (with some help from higher world commodity prices) has managed to improve Russia's leading economic and social indicators. But nevertheless Russia is not really very strong: its GDP is still somewhere around the same as Canada's (even with four or five times the population); poverty is widespread; Russian infrastructure is inadequate; corruption is omnipresent; its economic importance is principally as an energy supplier; its armed forces, though large, are not very competitive; it has no real allies; and most of its neighbours would prefer it to be located somewhere else.
NATO Expansion. Ukraine and Georgia were not offered a path to NATO membership - yet. People like to say that "Moscow has no veto on NATO membership". This has always struck me as fatuous: who says that it has one? It also implies that NATO's purpose is to do the opposite of what Moscow wants. Which is a rather foolish modus operandi. If NATO has any purpose, it is surely to ensure the security of its members. That security will not be increased by treating Russia as an enemy.
US-Russia Relations. The atmospherics continue to sound good; Putin's press secretary is hinting that some sort of document will be signed when Bush and Putin (and the next Russian President, Dimitry Medvedev, apparently) meet in Sochi on Sunday, other sources say that some over-arching deal is in the works. We'll see: the principals have said nice things before but their bureaucracies don't seem to make things happen.
Russian Professor Predicts USA Will Collapse Like USSR Drudge, US Talk Radio Hosts Stirred
Charles Ganske
Prof. Igor Panarin is a professor at the prestigious Diplomatic Academy in Moscow which trains future diplomats to serve in the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Photo by: Russia House
As if there weren't enough news to report amidst the Obama Administration forming a new cabinet and talk of more bailouts for the troubled global financial system, the eponymous Drudge Report website's lead headline last week was that a prominent Russian political analyst had claimed that the U.S. will collapse in the next few years. Naturally, several conservative talk radio hosts are up in arms about what they see as another provocation by the Evil Empire against America. while others have greeted this would-be Cassandra with a yawn.
According to Drudge:
Professor Igor Panarin said in an interview with the respected daily Izvestia published on Monday: "The dollar is not secured by anything. The country's foreign debt has grown like an avalanche, even though in the early 1980s there was no debt. By 1998, when I first made my prediction, it had exceeded $2 trillion. Now it is more than $11 trillion. This is a pyramid that can only collapse."
Prof. Panarin can hardly be described as a fringe figure in Russian academia. Panarin lectures at the Moscow State University, as well as the prestigious Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a highly selective institution for future members of Russia's diplomatic and business elite. However, Prof. Panarin has been saying the same things since 1998, as have plenty of American gold bugs denouncing the dangers of government-created fiat money, survivalists, militia members, Y2K conspiracy theorists, and a host of religious sects confidently waiting for the world to end. A broken clock can be right, at least about something, twice a day.
U.S.-RUSSIA RELATIONS The atmosphere seems to have improved in recent weeks. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Washington offered "confidence-building measures" which will apparently allow the Russians to inspect, in some manner not specified, American missile defense installations in Europe to assure Moscow that the system will not be directed against Russia. Bush and Putin are to meet next week in the Russian resort of Sochi after the NATO meeting and we will no doubt learn more then.
Yesterday's events in Yeysk (Krasnodar Krai) speak volumes about the degradation of Russian government and private institutions in their ensuring of children's safety. Seven camp counselors and 63 children (ages 8-16, all from Moscow), traveled by boat to a local island. Despite the signs "Swimming Strictly Prohibited" and absence of lifeguards or medical personnel, camp counselors allowed children to swim. In the meantime, counselors got drunk! While the counselors were drinking, six children disappeared. One counselor attempted to save the kids--who were being dragged into the open sea by strong currents--and died himself.
Government will cover all funeral expenses, and... that's basically it. Unlike the American Camping Association (ACA) there is no independent organization supervising summer camps' safety standards in Russia. Government officials who are supposed to fulfill the ACA's role are easily bribable, and most of them are using their 30-to-48-day vacations during summertime. An American family would see an opportunity to sue such a camp for millions of dollars. However, Russian camps do not have insurance to cover expenses associated with such legal cases, and the legal system itself does not allow for such law suits. I assume the parents of dead children can hope for about $5,000-$10,000 per child in government compensations from Moscow Mayor Luzhkov or Russian Federal government.
Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev voiced the growing infuriation of media and common people. Russians, weathered by endless wars and recent terrorist attacks, have patience and understanding when it comes to investigating a train explosion. But the nation has no patience whatsoever for the deaths caused by "sheer stupidity and carelessness" (in words of Dmitry Medvedev). Four owners and managers of the Lame Horse have been arrested. During the holiday season, every single public venue across Russia will be checked by local fire departments and the Ministry of Emergency Situations. The fire at the Lame Horse painfully reminds the 2003 
The murder of Novaya Gazeta's journalist Anastasiya Baburova and attorney Stanislav Markelov apparently has has been solved. The reputed killers were found and arrested; they are members of the RNU (Russian Nationalistic Union) known in Russia as RNE. While Western media insinuated that the murder that took place on January 19, 2009 was a Russian government attack on the journalists, Muscovites who witnessed the event could tell you exactly the opposite story. The true story less exciting, but and more troubling, than the one about Putin eating liberal journalists for breakfast...
