President Medvedev followed Putin's habit of acting tough, and made spontaneous visits to government-managed apartment buildings across the country. (A common condo building in Russia is managed by a municipality, not private owners, and certainly not the federal government). While the entrances and common spaces are in OK condition in major neighborhoods of major cities, they are in a disgusting condition across the country. However, people quickly caught on to the absurdity of Medvedev's "act of toughness." Thousands of comments left on Russian websites asked if President Medvedev would mind to plunge readers' toilets and check air in their tires. Given the attitude, it is easy to predict Medvedev's failure in the upcoming elections.
Liberals--widely hated in Russia and adored in the West--have failed to gain 1% of the population's vote, now for a decade. However, there is a group of people that neither Putin nor Westerners like. Those are fascist nationalists. They hosted multi-thousand-people protests in downtown Moscow this winter (much grander than the ones hosted by 100 crazy liberals monthly), calling for Putin's resignation. Police failed to disperse them. Putin failed to reason with them. And, here is the punch line: according to the recent poll conducted by the independent Levada Center - 58% of Russians support the statement "Russia for Russians." 68% of the Russians are in favor of limiting the immigration into the country. Once a new leader emerges (and it certainly won't be chess master Kasparov) - Putin will look like an Easter bunny, and Western newspapers will have to quickly change their op-eds from "Putin = bad" to "we missed our chance to build ties with Russia."
Since 1999, when the world first head of Vladimir Putin--a former senior intelligence officer handpicked by Boris Yeltsin--many things have changed. Putin pushed out the Communist majority from the Russian parliament and instituted land ownership in Russia; he reshaped created Russia's banking system and created the credit system, enabling small businesses and the general population to pursue their dreams; he paid off Russia's foreign debt and made its economy the second fastest growing in the world. He also failed in fighting Russia's 1,000-year-old history of corruption and raising young leadership to come in his place. While his shirtless photos and tough talk make him seem strong to the world, in Russia people start to laugh out loud about Putin and Co., and the only reason they approve his team's work is because they are doing OK, and there is no one else to do it.
Today, according to the WikiLeaks, Putin shows up late in the office, leaves early, skis, bikes, swims, and fishes. He must be tired after a decade of intense workload. His possible reelection will be barely a solution to the status quo. Russia is still a place to make a quick fortune, to sightsee, and to be afraid of. However, it barely is a fast-pace country with a strong visionary leader as it was five years ago. Putin and his team can be barely blamed for the leadership vacuum Russia is in now. Russians, by their nature, have suffered a lot and get satisfied quickly. Once Russia became safe and the incomes grew to comfortable levels, Russians became complacent. A generation of money-makers and world-travelers grew up in big cities. A generation of bureaucrats and Putin-loving patriots grew up in the country. Let's see how much longer Vladimir will ride this wave of stagnation.
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