This general rule fully applies to Russia. Here, events in Tunisia revived, rather incredibly, talk of a possible revolution of the masses fed up with the iniquities of the current political, economic, and social setup. The wishful thinking among the radical liberal opposition here is that it might lead this revolt of the masses and wrest power from the Putin regime.

Truly, it takes an amazing lack of all sense of humor and proportion to believe in such a scenario. One should honestly admit that the said opposition presently has no credible leaders who could win even the freest and most democratic elections or run the country in case of their miraculous victory.

Therefore, the most likely result of a hypothetical major upheaval involving popular unrest in Russia would be a Red-Brown coalition, an alliance of communists and other left-wingers with outright nationalists. The results of such a development would be highly unpredictable and catastrophic both for Russia and the world. The events in Tunisia would seem like a picnic then: unlike Tunisia, Russia is still a major nuclear power.

Whatever can be said about the present sad state of the Russian democracy, this country, in all of its 1,000 plus years of existence, has never been as free as it is now. Also, like it or not, all credible public opinion polls indicate that the overwhelming majority of Russian people support the current regime and that far from joining an uprising, they would rather support a merciless police crackdown to maintain order. So, where does that leave the West with its policy on Russia?

In the early 1990s the West had a historic chance to repeat the earlier successful experiences in post-Second World War Germany and Japan, making Russia a strategic ally. As we all know, unfortunately, this opportunity was squandered by the Bill Clinton and Bush administrations. However, for all its deficiencies, the present Putin - Medvedev 'tandemocracy' is by no means the worst scenario for Russia at this period in its history. They are infinitely preferable to the communists and nationalists seizing power on the wave of popular discontent, leading the country up yet another blind alley.

For these reasons, if the West is indeed serious about helping Russia's democratic development, it should try to engage Russia as it is now in all possible directions: in politics, the military, business, science, education, culture, etc.

There is no doubt that in the coming elections the choice will most likely be between Vladimir Putin, seen in the West as an autocratic ruler, and the more liberal-sounding and Western-leaning Medvedev.

The West obviously prefers Medvedev, so it would seem pretty logical to help him succeed in his drive for modernizing the country's economy, thus making a real success of his years in office. After listening to Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's statements during his recent meeting with Medvedev, one might conclude that the Terminator understands this better than anyone in Washington.

As for the liberal opposition, in the people's minds it still carries the blame for the disastrous years of the late 1990s and it is doubtful that they can increase their single digit rating by yelling 'Down with the Kremlin!' and trying to lead Tunisia-style popular revolt.

Edward Lozansky is president of American University in Moscow.