If the pledge by the United States to help Russia's WTO bid is indeed a trade-off for Medvedev's ban on the sale of the S-300 air defense missile systems to Iran, and not the product of speculation by foreign affairs pundits, the value of such a deal for Russia appears highly questionable.
First of all, there is still a debate going on in Russia as to whether the WTO will do this country more harm than good.
Secondly, America may not deliver on its promise even if at the moment it truly intends to keep it. Judging from past experience, several other stumbling blocks may emerge, especially after the November elections, when the number of Obama's supporters in Congress will be reduced substantially.
Then there is always the possibility that the erratic Georgian president will try to veto Russia's entry to the WTO, and he has plenty of "we are all Georgians" types in Washington who will gladly encourage him to do that. These folks will always find another excuse, however spurious, to humiliate Russia. For a partial list of these excuses go to the recent Washington Post article by former Assistant Secretary of State David Kramer, as obvious a regurgitation of Cold War cliches and recipes as one might find these days in the most moss-brained circles.
One only has to review the U.S. policy on the repeal of the obsolete Jackson-Vanik amendment to question the United States delivering on its WTO pledge to Russia. This Cold War-era trade restriction was intended to encourage Jewish emigration from the Soviet Union, but is still used as the leverage to get more concessions from Russia, like forcing it to buy more U.S. poultry. U.S. government officials have said many times that they will seek to repeal this ludicrous regulation, but there exists a common understanding that Congress might not go for it.
Any link to WTO negotiations apart, Russia's cancellation of the deal to sell S-300 missiles to Iran is absolutely logical and in line with UN Security Council's decision. For the good of mankind, and especially for Russia and America, it would be highly advisable for the United States to respond to the Kremlin's courageous decision in kind, not with empty or irrelevant promises but with real deeds. The word "courageous" is used here not only because Russia has lost over one billion dollars, and potentially much more than that in future weapons sales; nor because we hear ever louder screams of "death to Russia" on Tehran's streets. There is the real danger that Iran can retaliate by supporting terrorist networks in the North Caucasus, the same way it supports Hezbollah, Hamas, and other radical Islamist groups.
So far, according to reliable sources, most of the funding for terrorist activities in Russia has come from Saudi Arabia. The least the United States can do is put some pressure on one of its devoted allies, who, incidentally, did not come out of the September 11 tragedy looking pure as the driven snow. Washington should also consider joint U.S. - NATO - Russian military operations in the North Caucasus and Afghanistan, since the best way to build mutual trust is by becoming comrades in arms while fighting and defeating a common enemy.
It is high time for the United States and Russia to stop zero-sum political games aimed at outmaneuvering each other. Russia needs to modernize its economy, and it cannot do so without normal relations with the United States in terms of trade, investment, exchange of technology, and generally preferred nation status.
The United States, bogged down in Afghanistan, facing the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran, not to mention huge problems in Pakistan, North Korea, etc., needs Russia's cooperation in handling these and many other global security problems. If a WTO for S-300 trade-off deal has indeed taken place, but Washington fails to deliver, it will undermine Medvedev's credibility irreparably. Indeed, it may even ruin his chances for reelection in 2012. At best, he will be seen as the same type of trusting, dreamy guy as, say, Gorbachev. That sort of naivete is seldom, if ever, forgiven in the hard-nosed game of politics.
This article appeared first in Russia Profile.
Edward Lozansky is president of American University in Moscow.
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