In Russia, presidential New Year's address to the nation is traditionally aired each December 31, five minutes before midnight. Watch Dmitry Medvedev's address from December 31, 2009.
For Russia, 2009 was a pretty difficult year on the domestic front. It was saturated with severe economic and financial crises as well as horrible terrorist attacks and several man-made catastrophes. Nevertheless, the Russians not only proved once again that they can withstand disaster with dignity, but even in these most difficult times they achieved some impressive results in economic and social areas. The economy started to grow and the performance of the stock market was one of the world's best. The shops are full of goods and customers, travel abroad is on the rise, and cultural life is bustling at least in the large cities.
However, three huge and potentially devastating problems remain unresolved and actually are getting worse: poor demography, monstrous corruption, and severe alcoholism. If one compares the number of people per square kilometer in of Russia (8), the United States (50) and China (220), the picture is gloomy. Moreover, this ratio keeps changing, and unfortunately not in Russia's favor. Will the country in the years ahead have enough manpower to implement Medvedev's dreams of innovations and modernization, to serve in its army, or at least to hold on to its huge landmass?
Of course, the government should do more to tackle these problems, but unless every citizen realizes that the nation is at risk no dramatic improvements are to be expected. There is an anti-alcohol campaign on TV going on with major sport and movie stars taking part, but perhaps they should also add something about the need to have at least three - and ideally even more - children in the family, and an absolute commitment not to take or give bribes.
In the foreign policy arena Russia did well. It seems that the reset in U.S.-Russian relations is working. A new arms accord has all but been finished and there is a good chance that both countries will agree to make further deep cuts in their nuclear arsenals. The United States is no longer pushing, at least publicly, for NATO expansion, or for stopping the North and South Stream gas pipeline projects. Missile defense in Eastern Europe has been scrapped and in return Russia has agreed to U.S. military over flights to deliver supplies into Afghanistan. The Kremlin will probably do more after NATO's Secretary General Anders Rasmussen came to Moscow in December to plead for help, which in itself was a historic moment.
In the former Soviet space Russia also made some gains by expanding the common custom union with Belarus and Kazakhstan. On top of that a few other CIS countries are expected to join this union soon. The two most vicious Russia-haters, Ukrainian President Victor Yushchenko and Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, are no longer on the list of Western heroes. The former will most likely totally disappear from political scene after the January 2010 elections in Ukraine. Ironically, the chances are very high that Victor Yanukovich, who was portrayed in the Western media as a Russian puppet, will become the next Ukrainian president. Saakashvili, however, is still around and most likely will serve out his term, despite strong internal opposition. The West continues to send him arms, which is definitely a huge mistake because Russia is not going to attack Georgia and no arms in the world will help Tbilisi to recover Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The only thing that this flow of arms could do is provoke Saakashvili into another disastrous adventure. Asking Russia for help in Afghanistan and Iran and at the same time arming a lunatic killer of peacekeepers and destroyer of Second World War Memorials is certainly not a very smart policy.
The West's lukewarm reception of Medvedev's appeals for Russia's accession to Euro-Atlantic institutions is another geostrategic mistake. Since the United States is obviously on the decline and Asia is on the rise there is a strong argument for Russian elites to reevaluate their ideas for a Russia -- West alliance. For its own sake and before it is too late the West should reconsider its Russia policy and take the Kremlin's proposals more seriously.
Edward Lozansky is president of American University in Moscow.
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