Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Courting Russia on the Iranian Nuclear Issue?

Monday Marked the 20th Anniversary of the Fall of the Berlin Wall, the beginning of the collapse of the Soviet empire. The day holds mixed feelings for Russia, although Russian President Dmitri Medvedev was in Berlin to celebrate the anniversary. Russia has come a long way since Nov. 9, 1989. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia fell into utter chaos for nearly a decade and has spent the second decade since pulling itself back together politically,economically, and socially, and also launching itself back onto the international stage.

One of the themes that Medvedev repeated while giving a series of interviews in Germany was on Russia’s current place within the international system — as a partner to European states, a counterbalance to the United States and as a mediator within the Iranian situation.

It is this theme as mediator within the Iran negotiations that has really struck a chord with STRATFOR, especially as so many twists in those negotiations have occurred within the past few days — all this leading to the question of whether Russia is about to shift its international role within the Iran talks.

The past few days have been particularly busy for the players involved in the Iran issue. Over the weekend, there were leaks from an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report stating that Iran had been experimenting with two-point implosion — a warhead configuration — followed by Iran’s rejection of an IAEA proposal to ship Iran’s nuclear material out of the country for enrichment, a deal that was said to be in place after a meeting with the P-5+1 countries. Also on Monday, Iran announced that the three hikers from the United States arrested on the Iraqi border with Iran would be charged with espionage. With each of these issues, Iran was not only dragging out negotiations with the West, but also raising the stakes.

It would have been expected that Washington would come out with a new ultimatum to Tehran, but instead announced that it was giving Iran more time to consider the nuclear proposals. The announcement was as if the United States slammed on its brakes on the Iran issue.

Even more baffling was that this announcement was made while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak were in Washington to meet with U.S. President Barack Obama and a string of security officials. The Israelis have been relatively quiet on the Iranian nuclear issue while in Washington, with Netanyahu saying that the international community needs to unite against Iran, but not specifically responding to what seemed like the United States giving Iran a free pass excusing its weekend antics.

This has led STRATFOR to question what Washington is telling the Israelis on what the U.S. will be planning while giving Iran “more time.” Other than the United States also having its own motivations to drag out negotiations like the Iranians, there are two options that come to mind: first would be that the United States is planning a military intervention. The United States would not try to give many hints if they were planning a surprise military strike, but would act as if it were still interested in the negotiation process.

But Washington could be attempting a different option: to get Moscow to reverse its support for Tehran. Russia has traditionally been staunchly against sanctions on Iran. But in the last few weeks, Moscow suddenly grew quiet. During this time, U.S., U.K. and French officials have visited Russia to discuss the Iran issue. Moreover, STRATFOR sources in Moscow have stated that the West has been much more vocal in the possibilities of Western investment and cash going back into Russia, should Moscow want to be partners with the West.

These incentives from the West have certainly given Russia something to think about. In the past, Russia has only been willing to give up its support for Iran if the United States made large concessions, like its relationship within Russia’s entire sphere of influence — a price Washington has not been willing to pay. However, now Russia may be willing to concede for a partial recognition within the sphere and the Western cash into Russia.

Medvedev has already shown that he is open to this line of negotiations, saying that he and Obama will be discussing Russia’s economic issues as well as Iran when they meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Forum this weekend in Singapore. Now the devil will be in the details. Russia has been picky in the past in accepting U.S. incentives, but this time there is the possibility that Russia may now be up for purchase.

STRATFOR (www.stratfor.com) is a leader in geopolitical intelligence, analysis and research. The article above comes from their "Geopolitical Diary." You can subscribe through their Web site.