Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, and the rising threat of Islamic fundamentalism, not only present a clear and extreme danger, but also provide the perfect logical base for closer U.S.-Russian cooperation. Of course, it is always easier to say what should have been done afterward, but shouldn’t we at least learn some lessons from the not-so-distant past? No matter how much we despised and hated communism and the Soviet rulers, politicians with vision could have predicted the disastrous consequence of supplying the Afghan Mujahedeen, including Terrorist Number One Osama bin Laden himself, with tons of cash and the most sophisticated weaponry, like Stinger rockets.
After Jimmy Carter, along with his National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, yielded Iran to the Ayatollahs, it became pretty obvious that Islamic militancy was becoming a major threat to the West, a threat which overshadowed even the Soviet one. Anyone with basic understanding of the internal situation in Soviet Union knew that by the late 1970s - early 1980s, communism has exhausted its zeal. Not only did the Soviet intelligentsia reject its appeal, but even the highest Kremlin rulers, including members of Politburo, were privately laughing at their own speeches and slogans. Telling anecdotes and humiliating jokes about communism became major social entertainment. This, together with the sad state of the Soviet economy, should have led the White House to let communism pass into the ashes of history by way of a natural death, instead of creating a supposedly anti-Soviet Frankenstein’s monster, who has turned out to be the worst U.S. and European nightmare.
We have at least two good examples of successful military cooperation between Moscow and Washington - in World War II between 1941 and 1945, and in the defeat of the Taliban in 2001. Now is the time for more. It is in the vital interest of both countries to forge an alliance to handle the problems of Afghanistan and Iran. In Iran, Russia has all the key cards, and it can and should play a decisive role in averting a looming catastrophe. Moscow’s earlier proposal to enrich uranium for Iran’s supposedly peaceful energy reactors is probably the best on the table so far, and should be supported by all those who are sincerely interested in coming to terms on a mutually-accepted agreement.
The alternative is yet another war in the Middle East, in addition to Afghanistan and Iraq, which America can ill afford. However, the winds of war are already blowing across the Persian Gulf, as ever-more influential voices in Washington come to the conclusion that war is inevitable despite all the horrible consequences.
Russia can help to avert this disaster, but at the same time the West should understand that the Kremlin is in no position to antagonize Iran, and not only for economic reasons. Taking into account the violent Islamic insurgency in the Caucasus and the role that Iran could play in further destabilizing the situation, Russia should be given some security guarantees if all hell breaks loose over there. In addition, in order to offer Russia more incentives, the United States should rethink its poorly-devised pipeline policy of undermining Russia’s interests in the Caspian region.
It looks like Obama is making some encouraging moves in the right direction. Scrapping the anti-ballistic missile defense in Eastern Europe and dropping the plans for Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO is certainly a very welcome change from the disastrous Bill Clinton - George Bush policies of treating Russia as a defeated power. Now even such hawks as Brzezinski call for closer NATO - Russia ties, which is a good sign. The Kremlin has also made some reciprocal positive moves by offering logistical help to NATO in Afghanistan, and indicating its willingness to vote for tougher sanctions against Iran if the latter fails to abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions.
This was enough to prompt Teheran to indicate that it was prepared to ship its declared enriched uranium to Russia, which is the first step in accepting the original Russian proposal to perform the whole process of enrichment for Iran.
However, this is only the beginning. More dramatic steps toward stabilizing the Middle East should be taken, and the two young leaders, Obama and Medvedev, have the obligation to find a proper solution and succeed in these most difficult times.
Edward Lozansky is president of American University in Moscow.
