Russia's Dmitry Medvedev, Poland's Lech Kaczynski, and America's Barack Obama
Russian authorities are happy, Czech and Polish officials feel as if they have been used and abused by the United States, and Republicans are outraged that President Obama has decided to scrap plans to build a missile defense in Eastern Europe. The stated purpose was to guard Europe against intimidation by a nuclear Iran, but Russia professed to feel threatened and encircled. Now, presumably, Russians don't feel threatened and Iranians feel liberated to move ahead with nuclear development.
But here is the real test of this decision: did the U.S. gain anything by it in terms of protection of Europe (and Israel) against Iranian nukes? The next few months will tell.
The USSR and the USA were strangely but truly united in working against nuclear proliferation for a couple of decades--the 70s and 80s. In my time as US ambassador to the UN Organizations in Vienna in the 1980s this was the one field of relations in which mutual cooperation was sincere and real. Indeed, the way in which the United States came closer to the USSR at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) after the Chernobyl nuclear accident in the Ukraine in 1986 may be cited as a key turning point in the relationship that hastened "perestroika" and the thawing of the Cold War. The Soviets realized that we really didn't want to humiliate them, but only to help them deal with a real crisis. It led to a breakthrough that extended beyond the nuclear realm.
In those days the Soviets were clear that they did not want Iran to develop nuclear arms. Now, with the new Russian regime, oddly, the government's posture is not so sure. If the Russians really do think that Iran--snuggled right up against them--poses no nuclear danger, their leadership surely has lost its sense of long term strategy.
As is, it appears that the Obama Administration has managed to offend our Eastern European allies and to make a unilateral concession to Russian sensibilities. Maybe (as I believe) the missile system was over-rated and presented in a strangely maladroit manner. Still, it hardly makes sense to give it up for nothing in return.
But what if there is a background understanding between the White House and the Kremlin? If there is, and Russia comes around to joining Europe and the US in firmly opposing Iranian nuclear ambitions, it will be a major Obama accomplishment as well as a real "reset" of US-Russian relations.
If nothing is given in return, just more weapons sent from Russia to Iran, well, that will say something, too, won't it?
Think, meanwhile, of that recent, very quiet visit to Moscow by Israeli P.M., Benjamin Netanyahu. No comments were made by any of the participants.
Bruce Chapman, president of Discovery Institute, is a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Organizations in Vienna (1985 - 1988) and a former Director of the United States Census Bureau (1981 - 1983).
It just seems to me that things are simpler than this. I don’t feel Russia and the US made any backroom deals. Maybe they agreed to give each other some token gifts where Russia recently announced that they would reduce their tank numbers from 20,000 units down to 2,000.
And I also do not understand why some think Iran would ever pose a threat to Russia, such as a nuclear Iran with missiles. I mean it’s not like the Iranians are anything like Maskhadov or Basayev.
George Bush Jr had many strange ideas… Much of what he thought and said was really quite unsophisticated.
Today the world is changing very fast. In terms of both economics and politics, the world is beginning to become FLAT… I say flat as in FAIR. Double standards will eventually be minimized and American leaders are now beginning to think and behave more like other world leaders where the US is not the center of the universe anymore. Not that America is doing this because they are noble but it’s reality that is forcing it.
The missile defense project was given up because the US is broke. As important, the technology makes a great demo but cannot scale or be effective as it was marketed.
We are now in the middle of the worst global economic recession since the great depression. And with this, global demand has shrunk. Yet oil is still over $70/brl. This number indicates the state of the dollar and the ability of the US to get anything done let alone fix its internal issues.
Maybe folks like Ron Paul would like to pull back US meddling in global affairs for the sake of US economic standing, but eventually budgets and reality of such lofty projects will force the US to be practical. And this is why Obama gave this project up – because he can think like a business man.
I think it would be better for Poland and the Czech republic to invite Disney Corporation to open a division in Eastern Europe because while we all like fairy tales, missile defense was too farfetched as compare to Disneyland.
Mikheil Saakashvili should pay attention to this and the fact that Nato today wants to integrate pan European missile radar with Russia and he allies.
Yea For Pre...
I hope this the right move in the right direction for our country.
I think Obama's decision was a big mistake but I'll just have to wait and see.
Hi,
I think this blog provides a really interesting insight into Russia.
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I will be publicising this blog on the forum (and my post will be translated into a number of languages).
It would be great if people reading this blog would also add comments ont the forum.
Obama's this decision says that it not Bush. Very sensible step not to untie race of arms, and to concentrate on economic problems. Bravo!
The quid pro quo for cancelling the anti-missile site in Poland and the radar in the Czech Republic was immediate and obvious. Beginning September 6, Russia has permitted the U.S. to establish an "air bridge" across its territory into Afghanistan. Some 4,500 flights a year are expected (http://nvo.ng.ru/news/2009-09-11/2_news.html).
It is reminicient of the Cuban missile crisis, where as we now know the U.S. agreed to withdraw its MRBM's from Turkey and Italy within six months, in exchange for the Soviets withdrawing their MRBM's from Cuba, with the proviso that the agreement never be publicised. For some reason (domestic politics ? amore propre ?) the U.S. is unable to admit it has reached a reasonable agreement with a potential adversary for reasonable ends.
Russia says it won't deploy missiles near Poland http://www.mercurynews.com/religion/ci_13379139?source=rss&nclick_check=1
Excerpt:
"Russia said Saturday it will scrap a plan to deploy missiles near Poland since Washington has dumped a planned missile shield in Eastern Europe. It also harshly criticized Iran's president for new comments denying the Holocaust.
Neither move, however, represented ceding any significant ground. A plan to place Iskander missiles close to the Polish border was merely a threat. And while the Kremlin has previously criticized Tehran for questioning the reality of the Holocaust, Russian leaders have refused to back Western push for tougher sanctions against Iran."
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Note the spin in the first two sentences in the second paragraph, while keeping in mind that the now scrapped missile defense program wasn't something definite.
As is, there's now talk of providing a greater missile defense capability for Israel.
Kremlin says Israel Promises not to strike Iran http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090920/wl_nm/us_russia_iran_medvedev
With no disrespect to those thinking differently, I don't think that Russia owes anything vis-Ã -vis the scrapped missile defense program. BTW, was anything owed to Russia for being the first country to console the US on 9/11, which included the offer of intell. on Afghanistan? On the matter of owing, the same question can be applied vis-Ã -vis Russia's role in the demise of the Warsaw Pact and USSR.
As for Netanyahu's mentioned trip to Russia, that was supposedly for another matter. My hunch is that his meeting in Russia had little if anything to do with the scrapped missile defense program.
The US is perfectly able to deal directly with Russia. Moreover, Israel doesn't always follow US foreign policy positions. Last week, Israel firmly stated its opposition to Kosovo's independence, while signing a visa-free agreement with Serbia.
An update of a news item I sent in my last set of comments to this discussion:
http://www.rferl.org/content/Russia_Says_Its_Missile_Plans_In_Europe_Not_Shelved/1827444.html