Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in front of a banner for Gazprom, Russia's state-owned natural gas export monopoly
As of yesterday, January 17, 2009, the gas crisis was not over yet, and contrary to some optimistic expectations, it may actually continue for a long time, perhaps in a less severe but still damaging way to all parties of the conflict -- Russia, Ukraine, and the European Union. This will add additional pain to the current global economic and financial crisis, so we should be ready for the worst. However, despite all negative consequences, each crisis provides an opportunity to soberly evaluate the situation, draw proper conclusions, learn new lessons, think of the new strategies and tactics, and apply a new course of actions.
Unfortunately, the September 11 crisis, despite some encouraging steps at the beginning, did not produce too much in the long term East--West cooperation agenda. Will the current crisis generate better results? No one knows for sure, but nothing will happen unless we try, and here is some of my humble advice to the powers that be.
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Gazprom's planned Nordstream pipeline under the Baltic Sea to Germany will allow it to bypass the fractious politics of Ukraine -- but it won't come online until 2011
Russia should diversify gas delivery options and diversify the economy, with less reliance on the raw materials exports and more on science, technology, and infrastructure. It should think of a better use for Russia’s huge agricultural land resources to become a food exporter, as global warming might actually be a positive factor here.
Instead of looking nervously at some of the CIS countries’ desires for integration with Europe, Russia should make its own serious effort to join the European Union. The EU’s help in resolving the current gas crisis with Ukraine should be a strong indicator and additional stimulator for this direction. Russia has enough powerful friends in the EU who might help in this process.
It should also continue to push for the new European Security system with Russia as its integral part. Bear in mind that there are not too many people in the world who understand what this Russian proposal means, so it has to be explained in simple terms to the general public to generate support, both in Europe and America.
There is an ongoing information war against Russia in the Western media which, in my view, is lead by The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal, whose editorial pages pretty much resemble a mirror image of the now-deceased “Pravda.” Russia quickly learned the free market mechanisms and I am sure it has enough talent to successfully engage in this information war as well.
Europe should draw a roadmap for Russia’s integration with the European Union, both in economic and in security terms. It is time to accept the reality that for Europe, it is more beneficial to have Russia in than out. It should also freeze future NATO expansion until Russia is given a real chance to become a part of the European Home.
The United States should go back to the original idea proposed by President George H.W. Bush of a new northern security system from Vancouver to Vladivostok. The process of NATO expansion and Missile Defense Installation in Eastern Europe should be placed on hold, in exchange for Russia’s substantial help in Afghanistan and Iran. The flawed and dangerous policy of further dividing Russia and Ukraine should be reconsidered. These two countries are united by strong historical, cultural, economic, and demographical ties, and everyone who is trying to break these ties apart, including domestic or foreign politicians, is playing with fire.
Summarizing the above, no matter how severe the gas, economic, and financial crises are, if as a result, both the East and West will turn toward a long-term partnership, we can all still be winners. If, however, the West chooses a policy of isolating Russia, for example, through new pipelines that bypass its territory and by encircling Russia with new NATO members, this may turn Russia to retrenchment and nationalism. In that case, God help us all.
Edward Lozansky is President of the American University in Moscow. The views expressed here are his own.
