Save the Date - World Russia Forum, April 27-28, 2009!
Yuri Mamchur
This year, for the first time, Discovery Institute is teaming with the American University in Moscow to jointly sponsor the 28th Annual World Russia Forum in Washington, D.C. The conference, titled “America and Russia: New Leadership, Challenges, Chances” will be held on April 27-28, 2009. For more information, early registration, and a preliminary agenda, please visit Forum's new and improved website: www.WorldRussiaForum.org.
The latest Russo-Ukrainian gas spat may have finally taught the elites in those two countries a vital lesson. Namely, that they stand to gain far more from acting in concert, than either one of them gains from acting against the interest of the other.
The latest statement by European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso that "Europeans" will not forget how Ukrainian and Russian leaders acted during this crisis, reveals more than just impotence. It serves as a reminder that many Western Europeans are still not ready to accept either Ukraine or Russia as part of Europe. It would be wise for both Russian and Ukrainians not to lose sight of this fact, for it both shapes and constrains the policies of European Union towards them.
At the outset of this latest spat, both Ukrainian and Russia political elites made the mistake of assuming that EU leaders cared about the issues. They therefore put all their efforts into making their case in the media, instead of undertaking direct negotiations. Ukrainian leaders hoped to mobilise western sympathy by portraying their country as a victim of Russian imperialism, while Russian leaders sought to portray the Ukrainians as thieves. Each then tried to involve their Western European partners more directly, urging the European Commission to send monitors to the pumping stations, inviting the parties to a gas summit, and floating schemes by which European intermediaries might step in to guarantee payments in the event of further payment arrears.
U.S. Gen. Petraeus: Russia Agrees to Transit Supplies for Afghanistan
Charles Ganske
Gen. David Petraeus, Commander of U.S. Central Command and the man charged with overseeing a new American surge against the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan
The continued deterioration of internal security in Pakistan has contributed to a warming of U.S.-Russia ties. General David Petraeus, the American commander who led the "surge" in Iraq widely credited with reducing violence in that country, announced this week that the U.S. and Russia had reached a tentative agreement on bolstering supply lines for Afghanistan through Russian territory. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, in a visit to Uzbekistan, another key transit country for supplies to the NATO mission in Afghanistan, told reporters this week that he hoped for an improvement in the Afghan situation with the new Obama Administration focusing more on stabilizing the war-torn country.
Putin warns of 'big expectations' of Obama Jan 17 07:04 AM US/Eastern
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on Saturday he had noted "positive signals" about US president-elect Barack Obama but cautioned against "big expectations."
"We have watched an election campaign with great attention and we have heard and seen the positive signals which have been directed at us," Putin told German newspaper editors and journalists in Dresden, Germany.
He singled out Obama's stance on the US missile defence plan in Europe and US apparent readiness to wait on a NATO membership for countries like Georgia and Ukraine, which Russia considers its sphere of influence.
"We have heard and are fully in agreement that we have a lot in common when it comes to the solution of problems related to limiting the arms race," he said.
"We have a lot of common problems that we can really only jointly solve. The same goes for the problems in the Middle East, with Iran, the problems of non-proliferation in general."
But he also warned of the danger of raising expectations too high.
"I am deeply convinced that the biggest disappointments are born out of big expectations," he added.
Click here to read the rest of the story at Breitbart.com.
Click on the extended post to watch a video of and read the text of President Barack Hussein Obama's inaugural speech. You can also watch a Russia Today TV video panel discussion about Obama's new presidency and the possibility for changes in U.S.-Russia relations.
Gas War Over - Ukraine Agrees to European Prices for Russian Gas
Charles Ganske
Although Gazprom made Ukrainian customers agree to pay European prices for Russian natural gas beginning in 2010, the state-owned gas export monopoly lost hundreds of millions and many Europeans are angry that Russia and Ukraine failed to resolve their price dispute before millions in Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria and other countries suffered gas shortages during a very cold winter (Video by: Russia Today TV)
Click on the energy section of Russia Blog to read more about the dispute.
While Washington D.C. is buzzing about today's Inauguration of President Barack Obama, on the other side of the world, the Taliban apparently haven't gotten the message of "hope and change". The Taliban are seizing territory in Pakistan, threatening the vital overland supply line for the U.S. and NATO mission in Afghanistan. Taliban fighters have burned trucks carrying supplies up the mountain highway through the fabled Kyhber Pass, and in the last few days they have stepped up their offensive in the Swat Valley, only a hundred miles from the Pakistani capital of Islamabad. The Taliban are burning schools for the crime of teaching little girls how to read, as well as to demonstrate the powerlessness of the Pakistani Army and security services, who reportedly refuse to patrol at night.
If Pakistan cannot secure a valley near its own capital, it is not even remotely capable of taking on the Taliban in their Pashtun strongholds near the mountanous Afghan border. In 2008 the U.S. responded to the Pakistani' government's inability or unwillingness to fight the Taliban by stepping up Special Forces and air raids deep into Pakistan. But the cost in terms of civilian lives lost in bombing suspected Taliban hideouts in villages has been high, in terms of lost goodwill among the Afghan people and faltering support for the NATO mission in Afghanistan among America's European allies.
Click on the extended post to read why Russia matters to President Obama's project of saving the U.S. mission in Afghanistan.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in front of a banner for Gazprom, Russia's state-owned natural gas export monopoly
As of yesterday, January 17, 2009, the gas crisis was not over yet, and contrary to some optimistic expectations, it may actually continue for a long time, perhaps in a less severe but still damaging way to all parties of the conflict -- Russia, Ukraine, and the European Union. This will add additional pain to the current global economic and financial crisis, so we should be ready for the worst. However, despite all negative consequences, each crisis provides an opportunity to soberly evaluate the situation, draw proper conclusions, learn new lessons, think of the new strategies and tactics, and apply a new course of actions.
Unfortunately, the September 11 crisis, despite some encouraging steps at the beginning, did not produce too much in the long term East--West cooperation agenda. Will the current crisis generate better results? No one knows for sure, but nothing will happen unless we try, and here is some of my humble advice to the powers that be.
Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin
Russia Blog contributor Professor Andrei P. Tsygankov sends along his latest article, published in the Asia Times newspaper. Prof. Tsygankov writes that although Russia is justified in seeking higher prices from countries like Ukraine that have based much of their recent economic growth on cheap subsidized Russian gas, the Kremlin has pinned far too much of its hopes for future development on the oil and gas industry.
While this type of criticism is quite commonplace in the West, Tsygankov, like his fellow Asia Times contributor "Spengler", realizes that the time is short. If Russia (and for that matter, Ukraine and Georgia, which are in even worse demographic shape) want to turn things around and avoid their societies being cut in half, they have to do it within a generation.
Click on the extended post to read this excellent Asia Times article.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko and then Russian President Vladimir Putin Photo by: Xinhua
In a sign that people are getting used to the perennial haggling between Russia and Ukraine over the price of natural gas, the AFP is reporting some of the jokes (anekdoty) making their rounds among the Russian and Ukrainian publics. Interestingly, while many of them mock the Kremlin for taking a tough line on gas prices with Ukraine, many more make fun of the Ukrainian leadership for its constant infighting and inability to keep the gas flowing.
Click on the extended post to read excerpts from the AFP story.
Medvedev Videoblogs from Krasnaya Polyana (Site of 2014 Winter Olympics)
Charles Ganske
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is a regular video blogger at Kremlin.ru Medvedev also enjoys hosting foreign leaders, such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel, at Russia's southern resort city of Sochi
Like the U.S. President-elect Barack Obama, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is a big fan of using technology to get his message out. During his successful run for the White House, Obama used Facebook, MySpace and other social networking sites to raise millions of dollars. Obama was also the first presidential candidate to use Twitter, a website that allows other users to receive short SMS type text messages of fewer than 160 characters from a particular person.
Medvedev, who is of the same fortysomething generation as Obama, is also using technology to reach a large audience -- without the filters of the mainstream news media that often emphasize Medvedev and Putin's occasional harsh warnings to the West rather than the main substance of their remarks. Over at the Russian presidential website kremlin.ru, Medvedev has posted a series of video blog posts about his administration and its goals. But Medvedev, a Leningrad-raised lawyer who is a fan of the British rock band Deep Purple, has also found the time to address some of his personal interests and hobbies.
Click on the extended post to read more and watch the video.
In Aftermath of Georgia War, a More Stable Caucasus
Charles Ganske
A Russian soldier in Georgia in 2008 All quiet on the Caucases front: Emil Sanamyan writes that since the defeat of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili's effort to reunify South Ossetia by force, other former Soviet republics have indicated a willingness to settle their secessionist conflicts through negotiations rather than violence
World Politics Review, an online magazine based in Washington, D.C., has a new format and several contributors offering perspectives outside of the typical U.S. editorial page fare when it comes to Russia and other parts of the world. Emil Sanamyan is the Washington editor and bureau chief of the Armenian Reporter and he writes that in the aftermath of the August 2008 war between Russia and Georgia, the violatile Caucases region has actually become more quiet.
In particular, Mr. Sanamyan writes about signs that the long simmering conflict between majority Muslim Azerbaijan and historically Christian Armenia over the territory of Ngorno-Karabkh may be moving towards a peaceful settlement. And with little acclaim from analysts in the West, Moscow is acting as a peace broker between the two sides. Russia has long had friendly relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan and both countries have extensive ethnic and immigrant diasporas in the Russian Federation.
why a dispute over gas payments between Russia and Ukraine only begins to be called a "gas war" when Gazprom cuts off the gas, but not when Ukraine refuses to pay for it.
If there is indeed a tendency among the Western press (and blogs) to paint these sorts of conflicts as exclusively precipitated by Russia, then that might owe as much to an unwillingness to delve into the underlying economic issues as it does an inherent anti-Russian bias.
So I've been turning to the financial press lately to get some alternative views. And, perhaps unsurprisingly, I found more sympathy for the Russian position there.
Pipeline Politics: How Georgia Influences Israel and Iran
Charles Ganske
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili. In spite of the hype pushed by some conspiracy theorists, Israel only supplied Georgia with a tiny fraction of its military equipment and suspended all arms sales months before the August 2008 war
Since the August 2008 war between Russia and Georgia, many geopolitical analysts have tried to understand the origins of the conflict, and explain both U.S. support for the Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and Russian support for his opponents, the separatist governments of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In doing so, geopolitical thinkers around the world have sought explanations for the conflict that go beyond the personalities of the individual leaders involved, such as the Russian President Dimitry Medvedev, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, and the Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili.
Russia-Ukraine Gas Wars: Another New Year's Tradition
Charles Ganske
Besides watching the romantic comedy Irony of Fate (Ирония судьбы) and presidential speeches to the nation every New Year's Eve, another perennial Russian tradition, it seems, is for Ukraine to fall behind on paying its natural gas bills and for Russia's state-owned gas monopoly Gazprom to shut off the taps. This year, instead of a mere threatened cutoff followed by the usual eleventh hour haggling, Gazprom made good on its threat when Ukrainian utilities failed to wire sufficient funds into an account by midnight January 1, 2009.
Gazprom claims that Ukraine owes it $1.5 billion in debt, and is asking Ukrainians to begin paying $419 per thousand cubic meters -- a price still below what Gazprom's end customers in Germany, Italy and France pay for the same Russian gas that transits Ukrainian territory. Gazprom has also accused Ukraine of not allowing independent European auditors to survey the pipes, to insure that gas is not being siphoned off from export pipelines to Europe by Ukrainian oligarchs. Ukraine's government denies all these charges and insists that it made a sufficient down payment (about $500 million) on its debt by midnight to keep the gas flowing, and has declared that the Gazprom supply shutoffs are unfair and politically motivated.
Irony of Fate and S Novim Godom! (Ирония судьбы, или С легким паром!)
Charles Ganske
Irony of Fate with English subtitles, part 1 of 11 video clips
One of the most common Russian holiday traditions is to watch Irony of Fate, a romantic comedy produced in 1975 by the Soviet studio Mosfilm, with family and friends. The film has proven so popular over the years that director Timbur Bekmanbetov, producer of the blockbusters Night Watch and Wanted, released Irony of Fate 2 on January 1, 2008 starring his frequent collaborator, actor Konstantin Khabensky. The sequel, which brought back most of the original cast -- now thirty five years older -- proved to be a box office hit.
Click on the extended post to read more about the original film.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's New Year 2009 Address to the Nation
Charles Ganske
President Medvedev's speech
Every year on New Year's Eve Russia's President gives a speech to the Russian nation. This year was the first time in eight years that Vladimir V. Putin would not be giving the address. Instead, it was his handpicked successor, Dmitry Medvedev. As could be expected after a tough year for many Russian families, Medvedev's speech emphasized home, individual dreams and aspirations, and the importance of family in difficult times.
Russia Blog presents up-to-date news, facts and commentary on the state of events in Russia and the former Soviet Union. The blog is managed by Yuri Mamchur, Director of Discovery Institute's Real Russia Project . The blog is edited by Charles Ganske, a writer with the Discovery Institute.
