The Electoral Map and Math

John McCain and Barack Obama
Today is election day in the United States of America. Most public opinion polls are showing either a statistical dead heat or predicting that Democrat Senator Barack Obama will narrowly defeat Republican Senator John McCain in the race for the White House. National public opinion surveys also suggest that Democrats will enlarge their majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. However, four years ago, many exit polls inaccurately predicted a win for Democrat Senator John Kerry over incumbent Republican President George W. Bush. As of Tuesday afternoon, the presidential contest appears to be close, not necessarily in the popular vote count but in state by state races.
Russians and other foreigners may not be aware of how the American presidency is decided. The winner is not determined by the margin of popular votes cast for a particular candidate nationwide, but by whichever ticket gathers the most delegates from the electoral outcomes in all 50 U.S. states. This article explains where the American election is most likely to be decided.

This particular electoral map features the number of delegates for each state and pre-election day projections on which candidate will carry which state. The red states are likely to go to McCain, and the blue states to Obama.
As has been the case in the last two elections (2000, 2004), only a handful of American states are "in play" or "battleground" areas for both major political parties this year. Today the key swing states appear to be Florida, Virginia, Ohio, New Mexico, and Colorado, with Missouri and North Carolina also perhaps in play. Winning or losing any particular combination of those states to reach the magic number of 270 electoral votes first will determine who wins. Few analysts or pollsters expect a near-tie at the finish line in Florida like the disputed 2000 cliffhanger between George W. Bush and Al Gore.
So far, Obama appears to have more states already in his column out of the gate, giving him some advantages over McCain. Nonetheless, eight years ago, several news networks predicted a Gore win in Florida prematurely, before the polls closed in the Central Time Zone counties of the northwestern Florida panhandle. News anchors such as CBS news Dan Rather were embarassed when they had to retract their predictions as new returns came in from Florida polling places. The U.S. news networks did not repeat this mistake in 2004, and are not likely to do so in 2008.
Turnout appears to be high at polling places in both Republican and Democrat-leaning districts across the country. More than likely, by the time the sun is up over Moscow tomorrow (around 11:30 PM Eastern Time in the U.S.), both Russians and Americans will know who the next President of the United States will be.



Comments
I am 22 and I'd like to capture my thoughts before America either elects a president who its first 26 presidents could have legally owned, or brazenly subverts the very ideals it was founded upon by manipulating numbers in a final embarrassingly overt goosestep towards corporate totalitarianism.
I am nervous. And not night-before-the-swim-test nervous or even night-you-lose-your-virginity nervous, it's a low rumbling primal panic which I can only liken to Star Wars panic. Disney panic. The edge-of-your-seat-terror that makes you wonder if Skywalker's doomed after he refuses to join Darth Vader and drops down into the abyss, if the wicked octopus or grand vizier or steroid-pumping-village-misogynist is going to wed/kill/skin the dashing prince and then evil people in dark funny costumes are going to take over the world... if it wasn't a movie of course.
And tonight it's not. It's not a movie and yet I feel like Obama might as well be wearing an American flag cape while a decaying McCain, in a high-tech robotic spider wheelchair wearing an eyepatch and stroking an evil cat, gives orders to a sexy scheming Palin who marches back and forth through their sub-terranian campaign lair in four inch thigh-highs and full-body black leather catsuit bossing around the evangelical ants with a loooooong whip... umm... is this just me?
Anyway, the point is that things feel weird folks. I have friends who have peed in waterbottles to keep from interrupting a Halo-playing marathon who got off their asses/couches to volunteer for the Obama campaign not once, but many times. Friends so cheap their body content is at least 1/3 Ramen Noodle who donated a good deal of their hard-earned cash to the campaign. People have registered to vote in record numbers, and yet, something just doesn't feel right. I think we should stop congratulating ourselves for just voting. To vote is a privilege which people have died for, and I think there's a whole lot more to be done for the country than to simply help win an election every 4 years.
Hundreds of millions of dollars, hundreds of thousands of man-hours spent on both sides by good-intentioned people who want to make a difference in an historic election, so many resources and voices and energies devoted to a single day. After tomorrow, half of that is going to have been a waste. And I can't help but wonder what could have happened if all that muscle had been put towards something else, and what will happen to its momentum after the election has come and gone. Shouldn't we be donating our money to good causes whenever we can? Helping people who don't have? Dedicating some of our time to contribute to making the country which provides for us a better place? Of course a power shift is a hugely significant step on the path to great reform, but worrying about this election has been a wakeup call for me:
Even if Obama wins, we have not "won." This isn't a movie and we can't toss every greedy lobbyist oil fatcat bigot down a reactor shaft. I think if we dedicate ourselves to the ongoing welfare of the country as much as we have to the outcome of this election, we'll have a much better shot at coming closer to the overwhelming good the liberals hope Obama will usher in, but which no mere mortal could fully realize alone.
Which brings me to the other side. I've heard a lot of people claim that if McCain wins, they're leaving. I heard the same thing about Bush's reelection, and his unelection before that, and nobody seems to be leaving. And that's fine. Because as much as I complain about certain political happenings, atrocities, etc., I really do like it here and I suspect most other people do too. We have New York and Hollywood, purple mountain's majesty and sea to shining sea, we created jazz and country music and baseball and cars and lightbulbs and computers and that movie with hundreds of animated singing Chihuahuas! I mean who among the shivering Plymouth pilgrims ever imagined ordering hundreds of animated singing chihuahuas onto a magical box from an invisible information superweb?
The point being, if things don't turn out the way I want tomorrow, I feel compelled, as a college-graduated adultish-type-person, to take a stand. And if I'm going to leave I'm going to leave. But if I'm going to stay I'm not going to sit around whining like I have for the past 8 years. It's like when I don't clean my room because it's dirty and then I blame the dirt. So in my very indecisive way, before you and your screen, I'm declaring my intention to make some kind of stand in the event of -(Ican'tevensayit)-, and encouraging you to consider making one too...
Jump the ship or grab a bucket?
-Sigh-
Wasn't everything so much easier back when the worst possible affront to your values was a PB&J sandwich cut diagonally with crust?
Anyways, I guess what I'm saying is that if we're going to stay on board, we should probably be generous with our time and resources when times are tough even more than when the hero saves the day. Because what if he doesn't? And what if he can't? If we're serious about real change, election day should only be the beginning of "Yes we can," not the end.
Best,
Hannah Friedman
www.writinghannah.blogspot.com
Posted by: hannah friedman | November 4, 2008 1:11 PM
Hello! my name is Ignacio Montes i am currently in high school. I have been interested in the election and all the presedential debates that have been happening in the U.S. I strongly suport Obama and his health care plan, i think he would be a more efficient and better President to serve for our country. I don't have anything agaist McCain, but his plan is just like President Bush's plan. I feel that if we were in a situation like World War 3 or something similar i would vote for McCain, but in the crisis that we are in, i feel that Obama is the right choice. I am only 17 years of age, i can't vote. But i wanted to post this comment in case it made a difference, maybe it won't make a difference but hopefully it helps.
Sincerely
Ignacio Montes
Posted by: Ignacio Montes | November 4, 2008 1:18 PM
is this any acurate?
Posted by: gillian | November 4, 2008 1:37 PM
is this map real here??
Posted by: Anonymous | November 4, 2008 5:03 PM
you should all vote McCaine because he rocks
Posted by: brittany | November 4, 2008 5:34 PM
Change? Obama is a socialist liar. You'll see - change will come in the form of long lines at the doctor for free health care that the taxpayer of the middle class - you know the ones that pay taxes - are going to pay for that doctor visit for the crazy and lazy and impossible to fix drug addicts and alcoholics. Why can't lazy non working people get off their asses and pay taxes - why spread the wealth when they should be looking to the end of their arm for a "hand out". What is wrong with partial birth abortion? Oh - I don't know - just a dead baby with a heartbeat and hair and fingernails? Let's see you kill your own partially born baby! What's wrong with the liberals? What is wrong with this country? It is free and beautiful and we are at war to keep that freedom - what is Obama going to do when the next 9-11 comes about? Is he going to persecute the people - or are we all going to become Muslim? Hum...I'll eat my words if the next 4 years brings prosperity - but I'll be back if my taxes go up as a middle class citizen and I have to share my wealth with a bunch of lazy ass slobs who can't get off their couch or park bench!
Posted by: Julie | November 5, 2008 4:28 AM
How sad that an AMERICAN wishes for a next 9-11 to oocur to prove that Obama sucks. I am sorry you are butt hurt right now. Some of you should really do research and stop making blunt comments with no meaning. And secondly people are out there looking for work,it not our fault Businesses are going to other countries for cheap labor and Obama wants to bring them back:)
Posted by: Abby | November 5, 2008 6:23 PM
i found this very interesting.. being where i grew up where i did, it meant even more to me.
Editor:
There is a side of me, as an African American, that is proud of Barrack Obama. Certainly I am proud that he has risen up from obscurity to be in contention for the highest office in the land. I am also proud of America for seeing past his race and providing the platform, the opportunity and even the advantage that has been afforded Barrack Obama throughout his entire life.
However, it is the dark side of Barrack Obama that concerns this African American. It is his hidden associations with radicals like the unrepentant terrorist Bill Ayers, the hate mongering Reverend Jeremiah Wright, the defrocked Catholic Priest Michael Pfleger, the corrupt Chicago mobster Robert Resco. And then there are all of those taxpayer-paid "street organizers" at ACORN who have reached out to the homeless shelters, inner city soup kitchens and even mental hospitals in order to register folks to vote on Election Day. These are Barrack Obama's "soul mates," aided and abetted by liberals in Hollywood, in the media and on Wall Street.
Even beyond the questionable associations, there is something that scares me about the silver tongued orator that is espousing the sort of wholesale change that Barrack Obama has in store for us. He is promising to go after the rich our employers. He is promising to go after the oil companies ... who we need now more than ever. He is promising to make health care free ... which we all know intuitively won't happen. Nothing is free. He is essentially promising to bring a European brand of socialism to America and to cram it down our throats, all the while smiling and grinning and chanting this is "change we can believe in."
When it comes to national security, I am even more concerned. I am concerned over Barrack Obama's world view which is rooted in the "blame America first" thinking of his beloved Reverend Jeremiah Wright, who so famously "damned" America from his Chicago pulpit. I am concerned that Barrack Obama's Muslim heritage may mean more to him than his American heritage. I am concerned that he will turn his head as our Muslin enemies all around the world work to consolidate their power ... which ultimately will be aimed at destroying America. I am concerned that these enemies all over the world are cheering for Barrack Obama's victory at the polls.
I am sorry to sound this alarm, my brethren, but the good book warns us of the false prophet ... the one that comes to us promising a land filled with milk and honey ... all for free ... only to deliver us unto a living hell. In the eyes of this lone African American, Barrack Obama is the false prophet. I pray that he is discovered before it is too late.
Larry Long
East Liverpool
Posted by: trisha | November 6, 2008 10:14 AM