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September 11, 2008
DAIWA Institute:
Washington Blunders into an Unwinnable Campaign Against Russia

rice-gates-lavrov.jpg
U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, left, and U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, right, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, back view (Photo by AP).

A report (download the report in PDF format) from a British group called the DAIWA Institute (a research organization affiliated with the European branch of a Japanese investment firm) is interesting in several respects. Nonetheless, the blame-pointing is not necessarily sound and the picture of both American and Russian policy options is, at best, mixed. I think the idea of a “Medvedev Doctrine” also seems peculiar. When did the United States ever say that it supports a “uni-polar” world? That would be ridiculous. But that apparently is what the report says Medvedev wants the world to think America is proposing.

As for Russia’s reserving to itself the right to protect Russian citizens anywhere, it is a striking concept, but it needs to be carefully defined. The U.S. has often intervened in the past to protect U.S. citizens around the world, sometimes deploying military forces to do so (the invasions of Grenada, to name one examples in the last thirty years). But then again, the U.S. does not do this often, for various reasons. So claiming the “right” to do so is strange. It would seem that every nation has the right to protect its citizens, but that right has to be clearly hedged by circumstances. So I can’t say I am impressed with this alleged new Doctrine.

The warning about nuclear conflict is correct, if even in the abstract. There really should be fewer public pronouncements now and more serious diplomacy behind closed doors where leaders from both sides can be both frank and mutually respectful.



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Comments

Who's behind these think tanks, NGO's and foundations?
Who financies them?

I seriously doubt that there "independent" as they claim.

Case in point is Human Rights Watch and Transparency International whose major financier is George Soros.

East-West: The Origins of a Crisis
Posted by Nikolas Gvosdev on September 04, 2008

A great deal of ink has been spilled over the last month about the proximate causes of the fighting in the Caucasus. Abkhaz, Georgians, Ossetians and Russians have all presented conflicting accounts of who fired first—with timelines that stretch back to the 18th century. Meanwhile, the debate in the West has centered over whether the efforts to enlarge NATO to Russia’s doorstep were foolhardy and provocative, or timely and essential for the preservation of the Euro-Atlantic community.

But even if the Georgian crisis had not occurred, something was bound to happen. Two separate—and unrelated—events that occurred in 2003 set in motion a series of developments that, because they were left unaddressed, help to explain why Russia decided to draw a line in the sand and why NATO’s response has been relatively anemic. Even now, the Western alliance seems unable and unwilling to undertake the frank conversation needed—to define exactly what NATO is supposed to be doing; and in so doing is setting itself up for further failures.

From the Russian side, the road to Georgia began in earnest on October 26, 2003. That was the day Russian president Vladimir Putin was supposed to fly to the ex-Soviet republic of Moldova to sign an agreement designed to end the “frozen conflict” between the central government in Chisinau and the breakaway region of Transdnistria. The memorandum, which had been drafted by Putin’s special envoy Dmitry Kozak, provided for the preservation of Moldova’s territorial integrity but would give the separatist region a great deal of autonomy, by transforming the country into a federation. In practical terms, it meant that the pro-Western aspirations of the central government would now be balanced by the pro-Russia bent of the Transdnistrians. The opening point of the so-called “Kozak memorandum” was that the new federal state would be both neutral and demilitarized. Or, to put it another way, Moldova would be “lost” to the West.

At midnight, Moldovan president Vladimir Voronin contacted Putin to tell him that the deal was off. According to Russian political commentator Alexey Pushkov wrote in The National Interest last year:

As the story goes in Moscow, Voronin came under strong pressure from Javier Solana, the EU foreign-policy commissar, not to sign the deal. According to other sources, Voronin allegedly also had a phone conversation with Colin Powell, then the U.S. secretary of state. The message was clear: The West would not be happy if Voronin signed the Kozak memorandum. Later, U.S. diplomats denied that there had ever been a conversation between Voronin and Powell. Nonetheless, the U.S. ambassador in Moscow, Alexander Vershbow, did confirm to me that Washington had opposed Voronin’s signing the document.

U.S. and European officials vigorously dispute this account, but this is the prevailing view that was believed not only by the Kremlin, but in other capitals of the post-Soviet space. Both Moscow and a number of Western-oriented governments, especially in Ukraine and Georgia, concluded that NATO rejected the idea that there should be a neutral “buffer” zone between Russian and Western interests. Moreover, both the Russians—as well as their neighbors—assumed that the West was playing for keeps—and this was going to be a zero-sum game. This was certainly their conclusion from the decision to go ahead with recognizing an independent Kosovo in 2008.

It is important to recall that in the early days of his presidency Mikheil Saakashvili had sought to improve relations with Moscow, even signing an agreement with Russia on military-technical assistance in April 2004. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had said, back in those days, “With [the] coming of the new leadership of Georgia, definite developments have already been observed.” Russian sources claim that the Kremlin then offered a deal to Tbilisi, where Russia would cease its support for Georgia’s rebellious provinces in return for Georgia recognizing Russia’s strategic interests in the region. But apparently the price—of Georgia renouncing its desire for joining the institutions of the Euro-Atlantic community—was deemed too high by the Georgian government. Moreover, the rhetoric emanating from Western capitals, and specifically from Washington, seemed to indicate that Georgia didn’t need to choose. The West would facilitate its integration and assist in the recovery of the lost provinces.

But Western rhetoric never matched the West’s willingness to commit actual resources. So politicians routinely extolled the virtues of expanded the Euro-Atlantic community across the Eurasian plains, but increasingly were confronted with the realities of expansion fatigue. The climax to this contradictory process was the torturous compromise reached at the NATO summit in Bucharest this past spring—a declaration that Georgia and Ukraine should be included in the alliance at some indefinite point in the future, matched with few concrete steps designed to make this outcome a reality.

At the same time, however, NATO itself was losing coherence. When the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was created in 1949, there was a clear and present danger facing all of its members: the looming threat of the USSR. Moreover, the Soviet Union was viewed by all NATO allies as the single greatest threat to their independence, freedom, and prosperity. Certainly, over the years of the Cold War, NATO allies differed in how to respond to Moscow—but as long as the USSR maintained its forward deployments in Central Europe and continued to marshal an overwhelming conventional force (not to mention nuclear weapons) against the West, it was possible for the allies to find consensus.

Since 1989, that focal point has been lost. The newest NATO members, of course, continue to view a non-communist, non-Soviet Russia as a traditional great power threat. Many Europeans, among them France’s president Nicolas Sarkozy, want the alliance to focus primarily on its core mission of ensuring the security of continental Europe. Many American pundits and politicians, in contrast, want to transform NATO into an alliance of global reach with no fixed geographic zone of operations.

But if the alliance cannot agree on what constitutes a common threat, then its commitments and guarantees are weakened. More than five years ago, the first warning bell rang.

On February 6, 2003, three Western European members of NATO—France, Germany and Belgium—rejected a U.S. request for the alliance to deploy assets and equipment to Turkey in advance of the Iraq war. The signal was quite clear: should Ankara get into trouble because it decided to take part in a U.S.-led war of choice against Baghdad, neither the Turkish government nor Washington could expect the automatic support of the alliance, Article 5 of the alliance treaty notwithstanding. While a compromise was reached several weeks later that did provide for NATO support, the Turkish parliament, in the end, refused to authorize the use of Turkish soil to launch a “northern front” against Iraq, making the question moot.

Because a strike by Saddam Hussein against Turkey was the dog that never barked, the implication of the Franco-Belgian-German position—which both Belgium and Germany then backed away from later in February—was never fully digested. But the precedent had been set—that NATO guarantees were not blank checks and the culpability of an alliance member in provoking an attack could be taken into account by other NATO states in determining whether to render aid and assistance. Increasingly, many Western European powers have sought to caution new and aspirant East European members of NATO not to use the alliance as a way to pressure Russia. It is quite significant that in the U.S. press following the recent Russian-Georgian fighting the standard American position was that “how and who started the conflict is not important”; in many European media outlets, in contrast, there was a heated debate over precisely that question—with a number of commentators arguing that Europe should not be extending any sort of security guarantee to Georgia because its leadership was “reckless” or “hot-headed.”

With Russia today unilaterally defining its position in Georgia, with the Russian parliament voting to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and the European Union ruling out sanctions against Russia, these two trends—both of which began in 2003—have now reached their culmination.

There are two courses of action. One is for NATO to define its eastern frontier—meaning that the former USSR beyond the three Baltic Republics is to be left outside the alliance’s zone of operation—with the West’s strategy to pursue not full membership for these countries but rather a neutral status that would allow countries that want to be part of the West culturally and economically to do so. The other is for the U.S. and some of its European partners to forge a new Iraq-style “coalition of the willing” that will work to extend Western influence and counter the resurgence of Russian power in the Eurasian space—but to forego the full support and backing of NATO’s European core in the process (but trying to leave the alliance intact for maintaining European security and the trans-Atlantic connection). The moment for this decision is rapidly approaching—and will determine what future, if any, NATO really has.


Nikolas Gvosdev, formerly editor of The National Interest, is a member of the faculty of the U.S. Naval War College.

Which is more Soviet these days, the Washington D.C. Beltway or Moscow? Anatol Lieven of the New America's Foundation has some interesting thoughts here:

But there was another way in which the world seemed to revolve backward during the Valdai, which was if anything even more disturbing. During two lunches over the course of the conference, the president and prime minister of Russia spoke with us for a total of almost seven hours, answering unscripted questions without the help of aides. The foreign minister, deputy prime minister and deputy chief of the general staff spoke with us for several more hours. The chances of this happening in George Bush’s Washington, or indeed most other Western capitals, are zero.

On the other hand, I was told, several U.S. experts who had been invited refused to come because they were afraid that to be seen to talk with Russian leaders would hurt their chances of being selected for jobs in the next U.S. administration, or even their candidate’s chances of being elected president. In particular, they were afraid of attending a conference including meetings with the presidents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia—even though they had the option of not attending them. The idea that it was their duty as analysts to find out what these people are thinking evidently did not occur to them.

In the course of the discussions, we heard a great deal from Russian participants about Russian national interests, and about international peace, stability and cooperation against global threats; but not one word of ideology. The tone was sometimes harsh, but entirely pragmatic. On the other hand, from the U.S. administration and presidential candidates we’ve heard a flood of ideological clichés from the cold war about defending democracy and spreading freedom—platitudes with absolutely no relevance to the reasons for or the circumstances surrounding the war over South Ossetia.

Of course, taken as a whole, U.S. society is much more open and democratic than Russian society; but this is no longer necessarily true of American politicians or Washington elites when it comes to key issues of foreign policy. As for most of the U.S. media, its response to the war over South Ossetia demonstrated that it can on occasion be every bit as hysterically one-sided and willfully inaccurate as the Russian one. Indeed, in this case it was parts of the U.S. media which told by far the biggest single lie—namely the outrageous suggestion, in the face of all the known facts, that it was Russia and not Georgia that started this latest war.

Over the course of our lunch in Sochi, Vladimir Putin congratulated the U.S. media ironically on this performance—they acted “as if they had been given an order.” This raises the interesting question of what is in fact better: authoritarian control from above or mass hysteria from below. The way things are going, we will get plenty of opportunities to study this question in the years to come.

It is terribly unwise for Washington to strike a bad tone with Moscow. With a global economic crisis, two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the United States' shrinking power in the world, creating a new adversary is the last thing the US needs. I believe all the blabber in Washington about Russia's agression against Georgia, Russia's dispraportionate use of force, and respecting Georgia's territorial integrity, is all nonsense. This is too obvious of a double standard. What US agression when it came to invading Iraq and dismembering Yugoslavia? What about the United States' dispraportionate use of force against Iraq for weapons that did not exist? What about the respect we showed Serbia's territorial integrity when Kosovo was recognized as an independant state? I can keep going. The fact is the US and much of the Western world is showing huge hypocrisy by criticizing Russia for actions they themselves have taken many times before. It was Georga who ignited the war, it was hot-headed Saakashvili, not cold-hearted Putin, who started the war. Saakashvili was foolish to believ he could wage a quick war, without a Russian response, expect great victory, and if Russia did somehow respond that NATO would rush to his aid to save his regime from collapse. That is a historical case of wishful-thinking, and it may cost him in the future. Even now Georgians are questioning the legitimacy of his regime. Though Georgia may not be on the brink of revolution, down the road Georgians will question whether or not the decision was wise to go into South Ossetia without expecting a Russian response. They will question Saakashvili's un-wavering, nearly militant, commitment to be involoved in the NATO military alliance, deeply upseting their neighbor to the north. And it is not just Georgia, but others as well. The Ukrainian coalition government is collapsing as pro-western and large pro-russian and pro-independence factions split the government in half. A vast majority of the Ukrainian population is against NATO membership, especially in the ethnic Russian enclaves in the east and in the controversial Crimean peninisula which Russia still claims as its own. If their's anything the war in Georgia proved, it proved that the days of Western unilateralism are over. In Russia's backyard you must ask permission or expect a harsh reaction by a rich, more assertive, and resentful bear ready to defend what it sees as its strategic interests in its near-abroad. Much like the US would hold the right to intervene or act independently to defend its citizens and its interests at home or aborad, so to Russia and soon other countries will claim that right as their own as well.

Did you all realize that there's one foreign policy issue with Russia that McCain and Obama agree on?

http://www.robertamsterdam.com/2008/09/a_bipartisan_consensus_on_russ.html

US doesn't seem interested in getting the message from common Ukranians, Georgian, etc, that people don't want the West. US keeps pushing, setting up puppets in the surrounding to Russia countries, and calling it all "bringing democracy and freedom".
Russians in Crimea had suffered great economic sanctions, from its pro-western government. South Ossetians and Abkhazians never wanted to be part of the new Georgia (the Soviet Republic of Georgia fell apart into South Ossetia, Abkhazia and new Geogria).
THere is an excellent article that might shed light on why Medvedev made the statement that RUssia is going to protect its citizens -- http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,druck-574516,00.html

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Russia Blog presents up-to-date news, facts and commentary on the state of events in Russia and the former Soviet Union. The blog is managed by Yuri Mamchur, Director of Discovery Institute's Real Russia Project, a member of MBA class 2011 at Vanderbilt University's Owen Graduate School of Management, and a composer in his spare time.


 






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