Now Comes the Hangover
President Sakozy (left) and President Medvedev (right). "President Nicolas Sarkozy has shown a flair for the high-profile diplomatic intervention," reports BBC. (Photo by AFP). Russia and Georgia declared today, August 13, 2008, a Day of Mourning for the victims of the conflict.
France, which currently holds the Presidency of the EU, in the persons of President Sarkozy and Foreign Minister Kouchner, has induced President Saakashvili to sign the Medvedev-Sarkozy agreement.
According to both President Medvedev’s office and a French news agency the terms are as follows:
1. Tbilisi must make a commitment not to use force to settle its secessionist problems.
2. Georgian armed forces must cease fire.
3. Georgian armed forces must return to their barracks.
4. Russian armed forces introduced into South Ossetia must also be returned to their barracks.
5. There must be free access for humanitarian aid.
6. The beginning of a serious international discussion about the situation.
Sarkozy has offered EU personnel or soldiers – the details are not yet worked out – for peacekeeping forces in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This is a very helpful offer: not only will it be a further brake on Tbilisi but it may – finally – get Western attention focussed on the people in these areas and not on Tbilisi’s spin.
The reason why Sarkozy and Medvedev were able to come to agreement so quickly is that the terms conform precisely to what Moscow said it was doing all along. In my earlier post to this blog I quoted a Russian military spokesman who on Friday said: “In the future any shooting in the responsibility zone of Russian peacekeepers will be stifled”. On Monday the Russian Foreign Minister said: “besides a ceasefire by Georgian units, it is also important to achieve a full and unconditional withdrawal of the Georgian troops from South Ossetia, a halt of the military action against it from all regions of Georgia, and a prompt signing of a legally binding agreement on the non-use of force between South Ossetia and Georgia.”
Moscow has been trying for years to get Tbilisi to commit to not using force and trying to get the outside world to seriously look at these problems. And the 58th Army and the Pskov Airborne regiment were never going to stay there. All credit to Sarkozy for understanding the justice of these points.
In short, Moscow has done exactly what it said it would do, no more and no less. There is nothing in this agreement about regime change, conquest of Georgia or any of the rest of the hysterical reporting from so much of the world’s media, Russia troops have not invaded the rest of Georgia, they do not occupy Gori or Senaki or Poti (readers can amuse themselves by watching CNN quietly retreat from these claims on its interactive map).
Most of the world’s media has been appallingly irresponsible in its coverage. At least one news agency took film from Russia Today’s coverage of the destruction of Tskhinvali and gave the impression it was film from Gori. I have heard that a Spanish TV station went farther and actually passed off pictures of refugees from South Ossetia as Georgians and Tskhinvali as a Georgian city. In almost every case they repeated what Tbilisi told them and didn’t bother to check. Newspaper headlines all over the world gave the impression that Russia was marching on Tbilisi bent on overthrowing Saakashvili. Unfortunately, these reports have influenced official statements by foreign governments. I encourage readers to go to news media websites and see these reports before they quietly disappear.
None of it was true: Moscow did exactly what it said it would do. On occasion, as it admitted at the time, that involved airstrikes on Georgian facilities or spoiling raids on Georgian military forces. There is a military logic: some of the fire that Russia was “stifling” came from artillery and aircraft outside South Ossetia; no army would just leave them alone. By the way, the Russians claim to have found a map in a Georgian command vehicle outlining an attack on Abkhazia. That probably explains the spoiling attack on the Georgian base in Senaki (which the Russian announced at the time).
There are some rational and informed voices (see here for example) but, thus far, they have been overwhelmed by a torrent of one-sided, sloppy and over-heated nonsense.
But I believe, perhaps naively, that the truth will out. French Foreign Minister Kouchner and Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb had the moral courage to go to the refugee camps in North Ossetia and speak to the people there. What they saw and heard cannot be ignored. The inclusion of the sixth point in the settlement and his remarks in Moscow show that Sarkozy does understand that the secessionist problems in Georgia can no longer be dismissed as just something cooked up in Moscow.
Fortunately, the BBC is starting to recover: it now has someone in Tskhinvali and in Gori who is reporting what he actually sees.
That having been said, I do wish the Russians would just keep their mouths shut. Don’t say that they can never trust Saakashvili again; let the Georgians and all the Westerners who cosseted him figure that out by themselves. Don’t fulminate about Washington’s responsibility in encouraging him; leave Washington to its own self-examination. Don’t opine that South Ossetia and Abkhazia will never be part of Georgia; let the rest of the world realise that that is now impossible. These are all perfectly obvious: they speak for themselves.
In short a mind is a hard thing to change and a lot of mind-changing will have to go on. It will take time: it is after all, only since Thursday midnight that the re-thinking began, and that’s too soon to forget this.
Patrick Armstrong received a PhD from Kings College, University of London, England in 1976 and retired in 2008 after 30 years as an analyst for the Canadian government. He was Political Counsellor for the Canadian Embassy in Moscow from 1993 to 1996. He has been a frequent speaker at the Wilton Park conferences in the UK.
Comments
I do hope Russian government hires some good Public Relations (PR) representatives soon!
Posted by: A.A. | August 13, 2008 4:25 PM
The Russians already hired Ketchum in D.C. to promote the G-8 summit for them, but since then, there has apparently been nothing, though one Ketchum lady did boast to me that "we put Putin on the cover of Time magazine". I think this is a bit much, like Obama's potential VP taking credit for Medvedev calling a ceasefire.
The real interesting question is, when is the press going to sit down with Randy Scheunemann and ask about his status as a lobbyist for the Georgian government and the McCain campaign? Do the Georgians know what McCain says before he says it? Are they writing his speeches? What the hell is going on in D.C.? Is the Pentagon going to charter the privately-owned Russian Antonovs currently flying into Iraq and Afghanistan for flights into Georgia?
Posted by: Steve Nelson | August 13, 2008 6:35 PM
Mr. Armstrong,
In general, your piece is acceptable and measured, however you fail to note that over the course of the past several years the Russian Autocratic Government has methodically 'set the stage for the drama' now unfolding.
For years now, the Russian Autocratic Government has engaged in clear provocations under false pretext in a classic 'Soviet Style' effort to exert its control, destabilize and eventually overthrow free democracy within the Republic of Georgia.
These provocations include but are not limited to:
1. Instigating and supporting the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia within Georgian Territory.
2. Issuing Russian passports to citizens within the breakaway regions for purpose of setting up false pretext for invasion/war under the ruse of 'protecting Russian citizens'.
3. Establishing significant Russian forces within the breakaway regions under false pretext as 'peacekeepers'.
4. Active instigation of conflicts with Georgia on the borders of Georgian territory including South Ossetia.
5. Active infiltration of Russian intelligence agents into Georgia through the breakaway regions for purposes of instigating general destabilization of democracy and the overthrow of the current government.
6. Blocking imports of Georgian goods and services to Russia, its historical natural and primary market.
It is quite clear to educated observers that Russia has no real interest whatsoever in actual "peacekeeping" nor in protecting "their citizens" within the breakaway regions. These peoples are mere 'pawns' to Russian Autocratic Government interests. Simply put: they are 'props on the stage'.
Here are the actual Russian Autocratic Governement Motives & Interests:
1. Control of Georgian oil/gas fields and pipelines to the West so as to extend and protect Russian oil/gas monopoly.
2. Stop spread of Pro-Western Democracy on its borders.
3. Halt expansion of NATO.
4. Re-install pro-Kremlin government in Georgia.
5. Extension of Russian territory, influence and control of Black Sea Coast south of Sochi.
Posted by: Cris Sabo | August 13, 2008 8:04 PM
Thats the one thing that Russia hasn't invested in is PR although western media was always going to be hostile.
Posted by: james | August 13, 2008 8:47 PM
Answer to Steve Nelson
1. "Instigating and supporting the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia within Georgian Territory."
The problems go back a long way: you’ve obviously never heard an Ossetian talk about the “genocide” of 1920 or an Abkhazian talk about the constitutional differences between 1921 and 1931. If you want to really blame someone, blame Jughashvili and Beria for putting these peoples into the Georgian SSR in the first place. Yeltsin and Putin didn’t create these problems. Hopefully the Sarkozy-Medvedev agreement will lead to some serious look at the long-term roots.
2. "Issuing Russian passports to citizens within the breakaway regions for purpose of setting up false pretext for invasion/war under the ruse of 'protecting Russian citizens'."
Why do you think they took these Russian passports? Nobody forced them, they could have taken Georgian passports.
3. "Establishing significant Russian forces within the breakaway regions under false pretext as 'peacekeepers'."
The peacekeeping forces were established with the agreement of Tbilisi and they have been blessed by the OSCE. They were created after the wars caused the last time Georgian forces invaded SO and Abkhazia.
4. "Active instigation of conflicts with Georgia on the borders of Georgian territory including South Ossetia. 5. Active infiltration of Russian intelligence agents into Georgia through the breakaway regions for purposes of instigating general destabilization of democracy and the overthrow of the current government."
For example?
6. "Blocking imports of Georgian goods and services to Russia, its historical natural and primary market." Moscow has put pressure on Georgia at various times with various excuses, some partly-reality based (Georgian wines for example) and some not. One of the reasons was that Moscow feared that Georgia might start a war: the last time it did, that war spilled over into Chechnya. Perhaps we can agree that Moscow was not wrong to fear that Tbilisi might use force.
"Here are the actual Russian Autocratic Governement Motives & Interests:"
Let’s wait and see what happens. Let’s see, for example, whether there are anti-Saakashvili protests in Tbilisi like the ones in November.
Posted by: Anonymous | August 14, 2008 4:29 AM
Seriously, all of these discussions are great. Intelligent analysis of the situation. Put simply, if you shit in your neighbours backyard, do you honestly think you are going to get away with it?
I wouldn't dare, unless, I knew I was 10 forces stronger! Now, that was where Georgia stumbled on it's own shoes... it was over confident the world would come to their aide.
Posted by: Quixxxie | August 14, 2008 6:22 AM
I am "anonymous" -- I guess I didn't hit the right button.
I apologise to Mr Nelson -- I mis-read the way the attributions work. I was answering Cris Sabo.
"james" -- you might be interested in this
http://exiledonline.com/the-cnn-effect-georgia-schools-russia-in-information-warfare/
Posted by: Patrick Armstrong | August 14, 2008 4:33 PM
Answer to James:
1-4: "Russia has made perfunctory attempts to justify the invasion. It claimed that it was defending Russian citizens. This excuse, as Sweden's foreign minister tartly noted, recalled Hitler's justifications of Nazi invasions. Anyway, most of the "Russian citizens" in South Ossetia and Abkhazia had been handed their passports fairly recently, presumably in preparation for this foray...the latest fighting in South Ossetia may have been triggered by the Georgians, but it was largely engineered by the Russians, who have, over the years, fanned the flames of the conflict....This was no sudden response to provocation, but a long-planned move." - Latest edition August 16th, The Economist, 'Russia resurgent', page 11.
6. Moscow fearing that Georgia might start a war is no justification for banning Georgian wine, or for that matter any other Georgian made goods or services. Blocking imports from Georgia for several years now shows a suprising lack of sophistication among Russian autocratic leadership.
The actual Russian autocratic government interests again remain:
1. Control of Georgian oil/gas fields and pipelines to the West so as to extend and protect Russian oil/gas monopoly.
2. Stop spread of Pro-Western Democracy on its borders.
3. Halt expansion of NATO.
4. Re-install pro-Kremlin government in Georgia.
5. Extension of Russian territory, influence and control of Black Sea Coast south of Sochi.
You bring up a good point about whether there will now be anti-Saakashvili protests in Tbilisi like the ones in November... No doubt, this is certainly a strong desire of the Russian Government and one of the reasons Russian troops remain in and around Gori/Poti. -However, as far as I can tell, Georgians and for that matter, the majority of citizens of former Soviet block countries are rallying behind Mr. Saakashvili, not Putin or his assistant (Medvedev).
Posted by: Cris Sabo | August 15, 2008 3:20 PM
Above post is answer to "Anonymous", not "James". -Sorry James.
I also misread the attributions!
Posted by: Cris Sabo | August 15, 2008 4:16 PM
Let's be objective. The conflict between Russia and Georgia was going on and on during recent years. The war was probably planned, but no-one could imagine such a tough Russian response. US have put a hand to the conflict as well. There is too much evidence. Aren't the Americans tired of thrusting the nose into anything they want? It is happening now, when the US is economically and politically weaker then ever.
Caucasus has always been a trouble area. It is a region of a defined Russian interest (history, geographical location, Russian minorities, etc). Remember also that South Ossetia voted to join Russia earlier this year. The Americans struggled to seize control over Caucasus by sponsoring Georgian young "democracy" and training the army. Now tell me, who would sit and peacefully watch a hysterical puppet president building his army at your back-door? It is obvious, that the Americans have lost the war for Caucasus control. Russia, in its turn, was defeated in information war. This is not of much importance. Politicians should work hard to find a solution which will benefit both Russia and West. It is a very difficult task indeed.
Posted by: Anton, Moscow | August 16, 2008 2:11 AM
Anton, Moscow:
Fair points, but you assume that by supporting "democracy" in neighboring countries, America wants to 'establish control'.
'Zero sum' thinking is as outdated as a Gorbil-Zaparoshez...
Posted by: Cris Sabo | November 21, 2008 10:18 PM