Georgian troops fleeing under attack from Russian forces.
The scene on the ground would have been very different today if Georgia had been able to move past Tskhinvali after they shelled the city last week. Of course, it is not known if moving forward was the plan.
The route by which Russian troops, weapons and humanitarian supplies came south while thousands of refugees went north is a single narrow road from the Roki Tunnel
Had Georgian forces got to that location, blown the bridge and set up an ambush position, what would we be looking at today?
Certainly very heavy fighting at that location and consolidation of Georgian control in Tskhinvali.
It is likely there would be a crescendo of calls for a ceasefire in place.
But Moscow might then have hugely upped the military response, rather as NATO did in Kosovo when its original optimism was disappointed. They would might well have committed more forces and bombed sites all over Georgia.
So, the Georgian plan, if there was one, could have been quite feasible: move 25 or 30 kilometres, through Tskhinvali, to seize and destroy the bridge and hold the Russians there for several days.
But they weren’t able to get through Tskhinvali – the South Ossetia militias stopped them until the Russians arrive and we face a situation today that, while tense, could have been much more so.
Patrick Armstrong received a PhD from Kings College, University of London, England in 1976 and retired in 2008 after 30 years as an analyst for the Canadian government. He was Political Counsellor for the Canadian Embassy in Moscow from 1993 to 1996. He has been a frequent speaker at the Wilton Park conferences in the UK.
Comments
The exits were left unsabotaged to allow Ossetians to flee. The goal was ethnic cleansing.
Posted by: turkey | August 14, 2008 4:28 PM
The area around the bridge itself looks passable for tracked vehicles, if the water level is low (which I think it is now), and one detachment would have gone around to the east, 2.6 km away. Looks like open terrain (sheep pastures?), but, for sure, they would have been slowed down, especially if AT mines could have been placed.
i think the Russians were in a hurry to assist the peacekeepers in Thskinvali..
Regards
FkD
Posted by: FkD | August 14, 2008 7:44 PM
I didn't say the Russians couldn't have done it -- if you're prepared to spend enough blood, you can do anything -- but that it would be very unlikely that they would have done it now.
Posted by: Patrick Armstrong | August 15, 2008 8:10 AM
sure, if the russians would not have got in, thru the tunnel, they would have just used another tactic and came from abkhazia.
stop trying to compare 30,000 people to 1,5 million that Russia has.
arguments such as this gave the President of Georgia hopes he can solve this by force, and many people have died during it, on both sides.
but for what? so Bush can get it up again? he was depressed I think, that there were no wars in the world anymore, and he decided to encourage another one.
Posted by: George Tabacar | August 21, 2008 8:49 AM
Quite frankly, to answer the title of this article, NO. Georgia had no prospects of defeating the Russian Army. It is puzzling to me to think they ever had a chance. Saakashvili knew that the West was in no position to aid him militarily, and knew that his small and feeble army was no match for the Russian juggernaut. By common sense standards, I don't know why Saakashvili made the decision he did to invade South Ossetia. Perhaps he was not as smart as I thought he was. Even US military commanders responsible for training the Georgian Army said the troops were not ready for combat. For Georgia to enact on reckless military campaign in South Ossetia and not expecting a Russian response is very foolish and could cost Saakashvili his political career.
Posted by: Julian | August 22, 2008 11:45 AM
Saakashvili ate his own tie on television - what a man.
Posted by: w | August 24, 2008 3:36 AM