July 3, 2008
Graft remains a serious problem in the Russian Federation
Corruption et al. Medvedev mused that some provision should be made for transferring assets held by civil servants into trusts and said a first draft of a national plan for combating corruption has appeared. A presidential aide suggested that "independent directors" might replace state officials in some state-owned companies. Of course if that turns out to be a way of letting former members of Putin's administration keep these lucrative positions... I can understand why you would want to place government officials in these important companies (remember Gazprom under Yeltsin?) but the problem then becomes: where do their interests now lie?
Balance in government. A Levada poll shows a probably important change in political reality. For years opinion polls have ranked the president distinctly higher than the PM or government. This was so even in the Yeltsin era (although all at very low levels in the latter years). What this poll shows is that Putin's presence has pulled the government rating up: in the 40s through most of his presidency, it is now in the 60s. At the same time his public approval rating remains in the 80s and Medvedev's is in the 70s. If this trend holds -- and why shouldn't it? -- Russia's political structure will be much better balanced than it has been. Further evidence, to my mind, of my fifth hypothesis.
A female Russian soldier
Russian Military Reforms. I have been hearing rumors of something happening in the defense apparatus. What has surfaced is that the Defense Minister said that Russian armed forces would be reduced to one million personnel by 2013. The original target had been 2016 but, "We suggested doing it faster...". Then a 1st Deputy Defense Minister made the observation that training methods were still rooted in the big land war training of the 1960s and 1970s despite "the experience of the two anti-terrorist campaigns in the North Caucasus and the coalition forces in Afghanistan".
Yesterday the Public Chamber published a report about corruption in the Armed Forces: "Businessmen in epaulets" was a memorable expression from this document. Maybe the rumors of disagreements current a couple of months ago have something to them.
(For more on the sorry state of the Russian military, see this Russia Blog excerpt from an article recently published in Germany's Der Spiegel magazine).
Temps et moeurs. "2008 Nashi Summer Camp To Focus on Business Training Program" (Johnson's Russia List/2008/125/7). So much for the stereotype of the militant Putinjugend running amuck.
Taxing Foreign NGOs. Putin has cut the number of international organizations that can avoid Russian taxes from 101 to 12. This will no doubt be played as another crackdown on NGOs but a little time on Google suggests that at least one of the entities (IFAW) does not appear to have a Russian branch, although it has many other national branches. Maybe it should set up a proper local Russian branch. In short, this may have more to do with Russia treating such things as other countries do rather than allowing them to browse Russia for cash.
Yavlinskiy Steps Down. At the recent Yabloko conference, Grigoriy Yavlinskiy announced he was retiring as leader of the party: his nominee, Sergey Mitrokhin was duly elected. I can't help but think that his adamant refusal to ally with anyone else has produced Yabloko's decline and helped create the reality that today's "liberal" "opposition" (how many sneer quotes can I get away with?) is little more than a stunt for foreign TV. The head of the St Petersburg branch, who has been critical of Yavlinskiy's leadership, welcomed the change, saying he expected Mitrokhin to work towards a unification of this potential political grouping.
Khodorkovsky - Eligible for Parole?. I have long wondered whether Medvedev might signal a new look by letting, one way or the other, Khodorkovsky out of jail, given that the Yukos prosecution marked such a turn in Western conventional opinion about Russia. On the one hand, Khodorkovskiy's lawyers have said they have advised him to apply for parole; on the other, new charges against him are been mentioned. We'll see. It's an issue receiving some debate.
Romanov Imperial Family. A spokesman for the Prosecutor General's Office has confirmed that the bodies of Crown Prince Aleksey and Grand Princess Maria have been identified. So all the remains of the Romanovs have now been found.
Improving Russian Demographics. The latest statistics for January-April show continued improvement at each end, although the population is still shrinking: the decline was 96,000 this year compared with 148,100 for the same period last year. Births were said to be 547,100 (488,700 last year).
Belarus. Medvedev and Lukashenka met; the communiqué spoke of cooperation "on the principles of a market economy". So no more Russian-subsidized cheap natural gas. On the other hand, Venezuela will lend Belarus $500 million U.S. dollars to help Minsk pay the bills.
Caucasian Rumors of Wars. Bombs go off and around Abkhazia: Sukhumi blames Tbilisi, Tbilisi blames Abkhazian criminals. Sukhumi says Tbilisi has begun UAV flights over the disputed territory again; Tbilisi denies it. On the 1st of July Sukhumi sealed the border with Georgia. Former NATO Secretary General and current EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana has recommended direct dialogue between the two sides.
Patrick Armstrong received a PhD from Kings College, University of London, England in 1976 and retired in 2008 after 30 years as an analyst for the Canadian government. He was Political Counsellor for the Canadian Embassy in Moscow from 1993 to 1996. He has been a frequent speaker at the Wilton Park conferences in the UK.
The situation in Russia is greatly improving. Though it is far from finished, in the end it will come out with success. The culture of corruption is a historical thorn in Russia's sides. From the Czars to the Soviet era, Russia has been plagued with corruption. It will not be easy, but if Russia remains a strong Presidential republic, and the Kremlin remains a strong political and governing force at home, improve its revenue flow, continue to put tougher restraints for special positions in the hierarchy, and continue to put more money into specially trained police and security forces, and put more effort into convicting all areas of society with corruption problems, which Russia is stepping up competently, corruption can be tackled within the near future. Demographics in Russia are also improving. Though as the post says, the population is still shrinking. Yet if this rate continues, by 2011 the Birth Rate and Death Rate will equal each other. After that the Birth Rate has a chance of growing larger while the Death Rate will shrink. By 2020, the population could stabilize at 140,000,000 people. By 2025, the population could grow to 143-144,000,000 people, and then on. Yet this is all speculation of course. The economy must remain stable in order for this to be accomplished. Military situations are also improving. Norway cited a "Positive Russian Military Buildup" this week, citing the sign of "A Healthy Russian State." Still issues of corruption must be tackled plus, the improvement of the Industrial output of the military, by tackling the problem of inflation, and increasing the military budget further over the next years. Research and development must be further invested, and tax incentives for students and workers to join the Military Industry should be offered from Russia's giant energy revenues. By flushing more money, grouping more state control over assets, restricting the movements of its commanders and troops off base so as not to commit illegal activity. And installing watchdogs and special officers to oversee the military units of the Russian military to discourage hazing, and to punish those accused of doing such. In term this will discourage hazing, and with a growing number of contract soldiers entering the ranks, soon the hazing process will be disrupted and could be disbanded if enacted properly. If these policies continue, combined with a growing economic potential, Russia can become a strong, influential, and healthy state in the future world order.
well you guys know a lot more than me, but why dont we cut to the chase,the russian culture (and european)is finished unless they can manage to get the birth rate stabalized at least 1.8 to2.1 but thats not going to happen if you take a look at the slow growth of the western world as in population compared to the rest of the world it becomes most evident that russia might be improving health care ect... but they will be improving it for an entirly new culture
muslims,centralasians,chinese. My piont is if your talk is strickly to the state the I feel pretty
foolish for wasting your time and mine,but if you guys mean russia as in ethnic slavs well lets face it, at these birth rates across the western world(russia,Europe)we have about 4 lifetimes in'till the russians are 1 percent of the population