June 5, 2008
Chancellor Angela Merkel was the first foreign leader to visit with Dmitry Medvedev in March, when he gave her a bouquet of flowers for International Womens' Day. Germany is the first Western country that Medvedev visited as a president.
Medvedev in Germany. The conversation appears to have been mostly about gas pipelines but Medvedev expressed concern about the “increasing gap between Russia and the West” on security issues and reiterated his intentions to effect a “qualitative transformation” of Russia.
Putin Interview. When he was in France, Putin gave an interview (English summary, Russian) to Le Monde. As usual, it’s a straightforward unemotional statement of his views on present and past. It’s a “one stop shopping” trip for Putin’s view of things. The English summary above leaves out his remarks on Abkhazia where he, once again, attempted to educate a Western audience that the problem has deep roots that cannot be wished away.
A list of the world's largest Sovereign Wealth Funds by country, with Russia ranked 6th overall
(Source: Treasury of Australia)
Russia's Sovereign Wealth Funds. As of 1 June 2008 the Reserve Fund had $129.32 billion and the National Welfare Fund $32.60 billion. Much of the former is supposed to be invested abroad (as Russia Blog reported last summer, U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Robert Kimmitt came to Moscow to lobby for more of it to be invested in America) which is another compelling indicator that Russia wants a quiet world.
Alexander Litvinenko Case. Those who still accept the standard explanation that Alexander Litvinenko was the victim of the security services might find this interview with U.S. journalist Edward Jay Epstein interesting. From the start I have thought that Litvinenko was engaged in nuclear smuggling for his friends in Ichkeria and may have poisoned himself.
Military - More Shuffling at the Top. Yuri Baluevskiy has resigned as CGS and will become Deputy Secretary to the Security Council (is it still a parking lot for retirees?); Nikolay Makarov will succeed him. There have long been rumours that Baluevskiy and Defence Minister Serdyukov have been at odds and perhaps they are true. Or maybe, it’s Medvedev putting new makeup on the Russian face. Or maybe he’s had enough.
Energy Efficiency. Medvedev has issued a decree setting targets for improving Russia’s efficiency in using energy. Just as well if we are indeed facing another Maunder Minimum.
Anna Politkovskaya case. The Russian Prosecutor General’s Office has announced that the preliminary investigation into her murder should be complete by the 20th. Although, as the editor of her paper observed, the case can hardly be called finished when neither the killer, nor the man who ordered it, is in custody.
Alternate futures. On Tuesday Grigoriy Romanov died, aged 85. At one point, he was regarded as a strong contender for the post of General Secretary of the Soviet Union. I think we’d be looking at a rather different, and much worse, situation today if he had been.
Chechen Autonomy. Grozny continues to tiptoe towards as much independence as it can get: an official has announced that Chechen conscripts into the Russian army this year will not serve outside Chechnya.
Caucasian Rumours of Wars. The International Crisis Group has issued a report on Abkhazia. Unusual for Western discussions of the issue, it is both balanced and informed and doesn’t take the conventional route of just blaming Moscow: “It [Tbilisi] has quietly been making military preparations, particularly in western Georgia and Upper Kodori. A number of powerful advisers and structures around President Mikhail Saakashvili appear increasingly convinced a military operation in Abkhazia is feasible and necessary.” I remain convinced that Tbilisi would lose such a war and that Moscow will do what ever it has to to prevent it. There is, as the report admits, a considerable danger of spillover, just there was the last time Tbilisi decided to solve the problem by war.
Abkhazia Railway. The railway from Russia, via Abkhazia, to Tbilisi has been closed (and decaying) since the Abkhazia-Georgia wars of the early 1990s. In February 2006 an agreement was made between the parties to re-open it. Last week Russia put about 400 railway troops in to rebuild tunnels, bridges and power supplies. Tbilisi has complained, insisting that it never gave permission for this deployment. The timing of the Russian move has probably some connection with the decision to award the 2014 Winter Olympic Games to Sochi. There will be more activities like this in preparing the area and Sukhumi is certainly hoping to make some money out of all the visitors to a city which is only about 30 kilometers from its border.
Russian peacekeepers in Abkhazia. The recognition of Kosovo's independence has inspired places like Abkhazia to seek their own independence.
Peacekeepers in Abkhazia. The end of the Abkhazia-Georgia wars established a Russian-Georgian-Abkhazian peacekeeping force which has been there ever since (and very likely prevented another war). Ukraine’s Defense Minister has said that Kiev will sent troops if Tbilisi wants it to. We will see what this amounts to: presumably Moscow and Sukhumi would have to agree as well if Ukrainian troops are to be added to the force, but it could be a productive step as Kiev has no axes to grind there.
Patrick Armstrong received a PhD from Kings College, University of London, England in 1976 and retired in 2008 after 30 years as an analyst for the Canadian government. He was Political Counsellor for the Canadian Embassy in Moscow from 1993 to 1996. He has been a frequent speaker at the Wilton Park conferences in the UK.
