This week Newsweek world affairs columnist Fareed Zakaria has provided the cover story for that magazine's issue: "The Post American World", with excerpts from his new book of the same title. Here are a few quotes from Zakaria's article "The Rise of the Rest" pertinent to U.S.-Russia relations in an era of unprecedented globalization and prosperity.
On the Need to Give the BRIC Countries a Stake in Solving Global Problems
"American parochialism is particularly evident in foreign policy. Economically, as other countries grow, for the most part the pie expands and everyone wins. But geopolitics is a struggle for influence: as other nations become more active internationally, they will seek greater freedom of action. This necessarily means that America's unimpeded influence will decline. But if the world that's being created has more power centers, nearly all are invested in order, stability and progress. Rather than narrowly obsessing about our own short-term interests and interest groups, our chief priority should be to bring these rising forces into the global system, to integrate them so that they in turn broaden and deepen global economic, political, and cultural ties.
"If China, India, Russia, Brazil all feel that they have a stake in the existing global order, there will be less danger of war, depression, panics, and breakdowns. There will be lots of problems, crisis, and tensions, but they will occur against a backdrop of systemic stability. This benefits them but also us. It's the ultimate win-win..."
Click on the extended post to read more excerpts.
A New Cold War or cool runnings?
A model posing for an advertisement to promote the 2014 Winter Olympic Games in Sochi, Russia
America is Not Necessarily Falling - But Others Are Rising
"The post-American world is naturally an unsettling prospect for Americans, but it should not be. This will not be a world defined by the decline of America but rather the rise of everyone else. It is the result of a series of positive trends that have been progressing over the last 20 years, trends that have created an international climate of unprecedented peace and prosperity.
Russia: A Problem Child for the West?
"...we are told that we live in dark, dangerous times. Terrorism, rogue states, nuclear proliferation, financial panics, recession, outsourcing, and illegal immigrants all loom large in the national discourse. Al Qaeda, Iran, North Korea, China, Russia are all threats in some way or another. But just how violent is today's world, really?
Is Russia Really Engaged in a Military Buildup?
And Does Russia Exerting Influence in Its Backyard Constitute a Threat to the West?
"....others paint a dark picture of a world in which dictators are on the march. China and Russia and assorted other oil potentates are surging. We must draw the battle lines now, they warn, and engage in a great Manichean struggle that will define the next century. Some of John McCain's rhetoric has suggested that he adheres to this dire, dyspeptic view. But before we all sign on for a new Cold War, let's take a deep breath and gain some perspective. Today's rising great powers are relatively benign by historical measure. In the past, when countries grew rich they've wanted to become great military powers, overturn the existing order, and create their own empires or spheres of influence. But since the rise of Japan and Germany in the 1960s and 1970s, none have done this, choosing instead to get rich within the existing international order. China and India are clearly moving in this direction.
"Even Russia, the most aggressive and revanchist great power today, has done little that compares with past aggressors. The fact that for the first time in history, the United States can contest Russian influence in Ukraine--a country 4,800 miles away from Washington that Russia has dominated or ruled for 350 years--tells us something about the balance of power between the West and Russia.
"Compare Russia and China with where they were 35 years ago. At the time both (particularly Russia) were great power threats, actively conspiring against the United States, arming guerrilla movement across the globe, funding insurgencies and civil wars, blocking every American plan in the United Nations. Now they are more integrated into the global economy and society than at any point in at least 100 years. They occupy an uncomfortable gray zone, neither friends nor foes, cooperating with the United States and the West on some issues, obstructing others. But how large is their potential for trouble? Russia's military spending is $35 billion, or 1/20th of the Pentagon's. China has about 20 nuclear missiles that can reach the United States. We have 830 missiles, most with multiple warheads, that can reach China. Who should be worried about whom? Other rising autocracies like Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states are close U.S. allies that shelter under America's military protection, buy its weapons, invest in its companies, and follow many of its diktats. With Iran's ambitions growing in the region, these countries are likely to become even closer allies, unless America gratuitously alienates them.
On Reassertive Nationalism and Perceptions of History in Russia
"...as economic fortunes rise, so inevitably does nationalism. Imagine that your country has been poor and marginal for centuries. Finally, things turn around and it becomes a symbol of economic progress and success. You would be proud, and anxious that your people win recognition and respect throughout the world.
"...in many countries such nationalism arises from a pent-up frustration over having to accept an entirely Western, or American, narrative of world history--one in which they are miscast or remain bit players. Russians have long chafed over the manner in which Western countries remember World War II. The American narrative is one in which the United States and Britain heroically defeat the forces of fascism. The Normandy landings are the climactic highpoint of the war--the beginning of the end. The Russians point out, however, that in fact the entire Western front was a sideshow. Three quarters of all German forces were engaged on the Eastern front fighting Russian troops, and Germany suffered 70 percent of its casualties there. The Eastern front involved more land combat than all other theaters of World War II put together.
On Oil and U.S. Advocacy of Human Rights:
Is There One Set of Standards for America's Arab Friends and Another for Russia?
"Such divergent national perspectives always existed. But today, thanks to the information revolution, they are amplified, echoed, and disseminated. Where once there were only the narratives laid out by The New York Times, Time, Newsweek, the BBC, and CNN, there are now dozens of indigenous networks and channels--from Al Jazeera to New Delhi's NDTV to Latin America's Telesur. The result is that the "rest" are now dissecting the assumptions and narratives of the West and providing alternative views. A young Chinese diplomat told me in 2006, "When you tell us that we support a dictatorship in Sudan to have access to its oil, what I want to say is, 'And how is that different from your support of a medieval monarchy in Saudi Arabia?' We see the hypocrisy, we just don't say anything--yet.'"
On the Integration of the BRICs into the Western Economic 'Clubs'
"The fact that newly rising nations are more strongly asserting their ideas and interests is inevitable in a post-American world. This raises a conundrum--how to get a world of many actors to work together. The traditional mechanisms of international cooperation are fraying. The U.N. Security Council has as its permanent members the victors of a war that ended more than 60 years ago. The G8 does not include China, India or Brazil--the three fastest-growing large economies in the world--and yet claims to represent the movers and shakers of the world economy. By tradition, the IMF is always headed by a European and the World Bank by an American. This "tradition," like the segregated customs of an old country club, might be charming to an insider. But to the majority who live outside the West, it seems bigoted. Our challenge is this: Whether the problem is a trade dispute or a human rights tragedy like Darfur or climate change, the only solutions that will work are those involving many nations. But arriving at solutions when more countries and more non-governmental players are feeling empowered will be harder than ever."
Click here to read Fareed Zakaria's full article at Newsweek.com.
Fareed Zakaria is a little misguided in his predictions, but he is servicing a certain liberal sector which is hailing his article as call to end American dominance. America still seen as a beacon of hope in the world and this evidenced by are increasing immigration numbers. Yes, other countries are catching up in terms of wealth. When has that ever been the standard? It is ridiculous to conclude that Russia or China will be more dominant because they might have more billionaires and the masses in these countries are now mesmerised by their billionaires. Soon, these people will feel the oppression of living in countries that restrict their rights. In the distance will be the beacon on the hill, America, shining her light of freedom across the world, and giving hope to all mankind. For narrow minded think tank people, like, Fareed, those intangibles are no longer important.
Russia, a dominant power in the world before the creation of the United States,is on the rise. Few in the West would have predicted this ten even five years ago. Yet the resurgance of Russia is not a surprising headline. Russia will never, in my opinion, be reduced to one nation amoung hundreds. Particularly now that its sovereignty is being comprimised. The West, the United States particularly, act surprised of Russia's reaction to NATO eastern expansion. Yet historically military bloc expansions to Russia's border have always ended in an invasion and later destruction of the country. Napoleaon, World War I, World War II, ect. America, by contrast, has had the extraordinary privalege of not witnessing invasion and destruction of its country. So the United States cannot relate to Russia's fear. And they never will. I believe by now Russia is smart enough to deter aggression and not be blind to obvious threats. Yet the United States is having a much difficult time with Russia. On one front, Russia developes close economic and military ties with China, a former rival, and is gaining a strong economic foothold in the United States' European allies through its energy resources. So nations in Europe might be reluctant to support the United States in any negative action against Russia, fearing economic implications. Also the fact that Russia commands the largest military force in Europe, including Europe's largest army, one-million man strong, the second largest air force in the world, including a modern fleet of strategic bombers, with nuclear capability, as well one of the world's largest navies. So all of these factors contribute to Russia's rise. It was an act I always knew would come. Because historically Russia has always solved its crisis'. Russia has faced so many internal and external crisis in the past, it's hrd to name them all. But, no matter the crisis, Russia, through strong national unity, have always found the light at the end of the tunnel. In my opinion, yes Russia, as well as China, will be huge economic and military competitors with the United States. And if their strategic partnership is nurtured, the two could restore a multi-polar balance of power overnight. Because Russia, and even China, will not submit to Western hegemony. In fact, Russia and China have more leverage against the West then the West has on them. Particularly Russia, with it sinking its teeth into the hearts of the West by hooking thme to the most addictive substance in the world. Energy. This in my opinion will contribute to Russia's rise as a great world power, and if nurtured even more, possibly even regain superpower status. Yet this is my opin ion of course, open for dispute.