May 8, 2008
Dmitry Medvedev during the inauguration ceremony in Kremlin
President Medvedev. Yesterday Dmitriy Medvedev was sworn in as President (watch the video and the photos). His speech, almost all domestically focused, hit the themes of economic modernization, social security and “legal nihilism”. The tacit message was, as it has been, that continuity was assured. He did use the phrase “our great Russia” – it will be amusing to see how many news outlets focus their attention on that.
Prime Minister Putin. Putin was confirmed today by the Duma (the Communists voted against him) and his speech too focussed on domestic matters: increasing the capital – in all senses of the word – of Russia. It is clear that Medvedev’s and Putin’s program is to concentrate on what might be termed qualitative improvements in Russia’s domestic situation. Of course, in this sinful world, external events can arise ex nihilo and dominate the conversation.
The Medvedevs with part of their presidential security detail
Power. So here we are: there are now two power centers in Russia. The presidency under both Yeltsin and Putin gathered nearly all power in the country and the government structure was little more than an appendage of the Presidential Administration. But now the former president, with his immense authority and popular trust, will be running the government and a formerly member of his team has taken over the powers of the presidency. We simply cannot say, at this time, how this will work out and those who think they know are just guessing. One of these centers may eat the other: that is certainly possible and bureaucratic establishments do have a tendency to make war on each other. But it is also possible that they may cooperate, with a certain creative tension, and that is what the two principals promise. But one of the necessary conditions for what is generally termed “democracy” is pluralism of power and Russia has taken a step in that direction this week.
Inflation. As one of its last acts, the outgoing government (everyone resigns as of a new President: Article 111.2) authorised rate increases for a number of services: electricity, natural gas and railway fares. This is partly a result of the higher-than-expected inflation rate but also the gradual increase of such prices that has long been planned. More increases are likely. Prime Minister Putin’s first problem, therefore, will be to manage inflation. In getting the population to accept necessary but unpopular decisions, his prestige will be useful and probably necessary (is this a reason for his decision to become PM?).
Iran. One of President Putin’s last acts was to commit Russia to the sanctions regime against Iran.
State-owned companies. A former deputy energy minister has published a piece criticizing the performance of many of the state-owned companies created over the last several years. His argument is simply that they are not performing as well as private companies. Medvedev has said a few things in the past about this sort of thing and it will be interesting to see whether he dismantles some of them.
Nuclear agreement. On Tuesday the head of RosAtom and the US Ambassador signed a bilateral civilian nuclear cooperation agreement. Under negotiation for two decades, it provides the basis for nuclear cooperation, trade and so forth. The agreement has to win the approval of the U.S. Congress, however, which may prove impossible.
Soccer. Moscow has relaxed visa restrictions for the thousands of British soccer fans expected to attend the European Champions League final in Moscow on the 21st. One wonders whether the additional income from the visitors will offset the extra policing costs.
Promises. Gorbachev gave an interview to a British paper in which he said that the opportunities of the ten years after the end of the Cold War had been “squandered” and mostly blamed the USA. He reiterated that Washington had promised him that NATO would not expand past Germany: “so what happened to their promises?”
Russia-Georgia. On Monday Tbilisi formally notified Moscow it was withdrawing from the air defense treaty of April 1995. It has also demanded Moscow withdraw the additional troops it put into the Abkhazia peacekeeping force (which, apparently, it was entitled to do as the total is still well below the allowed limits).
Caucasian rumors of wars. There have been some attacks in federal and local security forces in the North Caucasus in the last week as a reminder that things have not yet settled down there. Meanwhile there are charges, counter-charges and denials between Tbilisi and Sukhumi. Rhetoric is very high: the Abkhazians are even boasting they can get to Kutaisi, “the ancient capital of the Abkhaz kingdom”, five days after Tbilisi attacks. That’s about 50 kilometers from the border.
Patrick Armstrong received a PhD from Kings College, University of London, England in 1976 and began working for the Canadian government as a defence scientist in 1977. He was Political Counsellor for the Canadian Embassy in Moscow from 1993 to 1996. He has been a frequent speaker at the Wilton Park conferences in the UK.
