Arizona Senator John McCain is the Republican candidate for President
Note to Russia Blog readers: This article was originally published earlier today in the Moscow Times. Dr. Edward Lozansky is the organizer of the World Russian Forum, which is now underway May 19-20, 2008 at the U.S. Capitol in Washington D.C. -The Editors
The three presumed U.S. presidential candidates rarely mention Russia. When they do, their remarks are critical -- possibly because they are hoping to attract a few more votes from the numerous and well-organized ethnic communities from Ukraine, the Baltics and East Europe.
Still, Senator John McCain stands alone. McCain, the Republican hopeful with a good shot of winning the election, has practically included Russia in a new axis of evil, along with North Korea, China and Iran. McCain's advisers are openly lambasting President George W. Bush for being too chummy with President Vladimir Putin and promise that Moscow will be treated a lot more harshly in a McCain presidency.
President Bush meeting then Russian President-elect Dimitry Medvedev in April 2008
I am not sure if the statements from McCain and his camp are making the Kremlin nervous, but they are causing considerable concern among U.S. foreign policy experts. Recently, several mainstream news organizations, including Newsweek and the International Herald Tribune, published articles critical of McCain's rhetoric, which, they say, might inflame international tensions linked to U.S. actions over Iraq and Iran. The foreign policy experts say a proposal by McCain to kick Russia out of the Group of Eight industrial countries will never happen, because other G8 members would oppose it. Stephen F. Cohen, a Russia scholar at NYU, said the McCain camp's rhetoric was pushing the world toward a new Cold War. Newsweek went even further, branding McCain's ideas "schizophrenic."
I have assumed a more moderate attitude regarding what should be Washington's official attitude toward Russia. As the president of the annual World Russian Forum, which opens Monday on the premises of the U.S. Senate, I invited McCain to explain his stance and possibly engage in a debate with leading U.S. and Russian experts, including Thomas Graham, former director of the U.S. National Security Council's Russia Department, and Andranik Migranyan of the Institute of Democracy and Cooperation, which is the Kremlin's first attempt at an NGO in Washington.
I cannot speak for the other panelists, but personally I would like to ask McCain how U.S. security would benefit from Russia's expulsion from the G8. Also, I would like to ask McCain about an idea of his to form a league of democracies that would exclude Russia and China. Don't the Americans need the Russians and the Chinese to cooperate on nuclear nonproliferation and a climate change treaty? Sidelining them with the creation of this new body would do nothing to smooth over cooperation in other areas. Moreover, how would Washington's Middle East allies like Egypt, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia react to such a democratic grouping?
McCain also recently suggested that the United States should follow the French example of generating 80 percent of France's electricity with nuclear power. However, some experts say more than 700 huge nuclear power plants would have to be built by 2050 -- more than one plant per month -- to satisfy McCain's desire to be like France. Keeping in mind the fact that the Bush administration last month signed a deal permitting reactor fuel to come from Russia, where would the United States get all the uranium required to fuel 700 nuclear power plants if its next president bashed Russia day and night?
U.S. Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman and RosAtom director Sergey Kiriyenko
(Photo by: U.S. Department of Energy)
To be fair to McCain, the other two presidential front-runners, Democratic Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, have not offered a positive-thinking agenda for Russia either, pledging to be tougher with Russia than Bush and endorsing further NATO expansion by accepting Ukraine and Georgia into the alliance. All three presidential contenders have promised to expand the Bush administration's effort to "spread democracy," a policy that an overwhelming majority of Russians see as a thinly veiled smoke screen to strengthen the U.S. position in the world at the expense of Russia.
At a recent celebration in honor of former U.S. National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski, speaker after speaker stood up to say that none of the major security problems faced by the United States and the rest of the world could have been solved without cooperation from Russia. Even Brzezinski himself, who considers Russia to be little more than an evil genius, echoed this sentiment. Does McCain believe that all of them are wrong?
We may never know. Neither McCain nor his top foreign policy adviser, Randy Scheuneman, have confirmed or declined my invitation to speak at the forum, even though the meeting hall is right next door to McCain's office in the Hart Senate Office Building.
Edward Lozansky is President of the American University in Moscow.
"The three presumed U.S. presidential candidates rarely mention Russia. When they do, their remarks are critical -- possibly because they are hoping to attract a few more votes from the numerous and well-organized ethnic communities from Ukraine, the Baltics and East Europe."
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The Ukrainian-North American community isn't monolithic. I know my share of them who don't buy into the kind of slant getting propped.
Look at the overall slant of The Moscow Times, which often goes against mainstream Russian views. One of several examples relates to the views of some of the columnists it has regularly employed.
At times, Edward Lozansky seems more interested in wonking it with Capital Hill politicos, as opposed to really looking for intelligently presented mainstream Russian views which connect to an English language audience.
It is surprising why none of the candidates mention Russia. Possibly because they are too busy dealing with Iraq and domestic issues to really be concerned with the issue of another state. But whether the candidates want to accept it or not, Russia will be one of America's greatest future challengers, more so then Iran, China, or terrorism. Because, unlike the ones mentioned, Russia has the capability to destroy the United States. A rich and resentful Russia armed with the world's largest arsenal of nuclear weapons is far more threatening then any other national security challenge. Russia's power was discredited for years because of its lack of capital, social instability, and the government was on good terms with the West during the Yeltsin and post Yeltsin years. Yet Russia is rich once more and resentful that the West, rather then assist Russia in its time of need, took advantage of them. Withdrawing from the ABM treaty in 2000, accepting the ex-Soviet Baltic states into NATO, when the US said it would not expand NATO eastward. Then laying out plans to install an anti-missile defense shield to be placed in Poland and the Czech Republic which serves no other intention then to deflect missiles coming from the East that would strike Europe, (Russia, and to accept two more ex-Soviet states into NATO. Meanwhile Russia continued to concede to the West, while the West conceded nothing. So why the West is so oblivious to Russia's concerns and its threats to national security. The US candidates need to focus more attention on Russia in the future, because Russia is not the weak, poor, chaotic country it was a decade ago. It is rich, assertive, and resentful to a bloc that has taken advantage of them. If they want to defend national security, Russia is a huge contender they will have to deal with in the near future.
Keeping in mind the fact that the Bush administration last month signed a deal permitting reactor fuel to come from Russia, where would the United States get all the uranium required to fuel 700 nuclear power plants if its next president bashed Russia day and night?
Australia.
McCain promises to treat russia more harshly than bush, well if he does he will be sorry because this isnt the 90s, russia is gaining power and it wont take any more american "beef," pun intended.