April 24 2008
DEMOGRAPHICS. The demographic picture in Russia continues to improve: RosStat claims 273,700 births in January and February (up 12.8% over the previous year) and 368,200 deaths (up 4.1%). A bill to restrict abortion advertising has been proposed and a Duma deputy gave some numbers here: in 2006 there were one and a half million abortions (40.3 per 1000 women) in Russia, down from the two million in 2002 (54.2 per 1000 women). So, this statistical evidence suggests that the various pro-natalist programs are having an effect. We don’t know yet, of course, whether the programs actually are leading to more children, or just encouraging Russian women to have their babies sooner. New data coming in over the next few years will tell us.
INVESTIGATIVE COMMITTEE. More trouble. The head of the main investigative unit was fired; corruption being given as the reason. The usual rumors abound.
The Georgian government has accused Russia of using its air forces to shoot down one of its unmanned aerial drones over the disputed territory of Abkhazia
POLITICS. The head of Just Russia has denied plans to form a coalition with United Russia.
CHECHNYA. Grozny is making an attempt to crack down on Sulim Yamadayev’s Vostok Battalion. He and his brother have been accused of a multitude of crimes and large-scale defections are reported. The battalion is under Moscow’s control (or, more realistically, is supposed to be – very little in Chechnya is truly under Moscow’s control) and it is reported that the decision whether or not to disband it will be deferred until Medvedev becomes President. I can think of three hypotheses:
1. Grozny continues tidying up and the criminal accusations are mostly true.
2. It’s an argument over dividing the spoils.
3. It’s another step in the in-gathering of power under Grozny and Ramzan Kadyrov.
The fact that should be remembered is that Chechnya today is run by people who fought Moscow in the first war but didn’t want Chechnya to become part of the Wahhabi Imamate that Ibn Khattab was fighting for. I remain convinced that the Chechens still want independence, or at least, a lot of autonomy.
RUSSIA-GEORGIA. On Sunday a Georgian UAV was shot down over Abkhazia. Sukhumi has stuck to its first story that it was shot down by a AAM fired from an Abkhazian L-39 (they obtained a batch from Chechnya in the early 1990s: there had been a Soviet training base at Khankala). Tbilisi first denied the loss then on Monday produced a video which purportedly showed the UAV’s camera recording an attack by a twin-tailed fighter: they say it was a Mikoyan MiG-29.
There is, however, one big anomaly: the video shows it being hit over the sea but everyone seems to agree it was shot down over land and Abkhazia has been showing what it says are the fragments. Moscow sticks to its story that it had nothing to do with it but says that the flight itself was a violation of cease-fire agreements. In a telephone conversation between Presidents Saakashvili and Putin, Putin reiterated these points and insisted that recent closer relations with Abkhazia and South Ossetia were in accordance with international law.
CONSPIRACY THEORIES I want to make it clear that I don’t believe anyone on the UAV story: all parties have a history of lying about these things. Videos are easy to fake but false statements are even easier. In the interest of objectivity, given that the Western media is again (vide jihadists in Pankisi) uncritically swallowing Tbilisi’s story, I wish to point out a few developments of the last week that will be left out of the account.
1. A Georgian opposition member said that nearly all Georgian electronic media is now under the control of the government.
2. Nino Burjanadze said she would not run in the parliamentary election next month, saying that certain lessons had not been learned by the government.
3. UNOMIG released a statement contradicting Tbilisi’s claims that there is an Abkhazian military buildup.
4. Spring is coming and military operations in high ground are again possible.
5. His lawyer says that France has granted former Defence Minister and Saakashvili ally Irakli Okruashvili asylum.
6. Saakashvili called on the opposition to cooperate in the face of Russian threats.
7. And, of course, the UAV story is fodder for Georgia’s needing the protection of NATO membership (but see below).
NATO. The Polish Defence Minister has been quoted as saying that neither EU nor NATO membership provides sufficient security guarantees in relation to Russia and that Warsaw wants the US missile bases to provide, apparently, that guarantee. Two observations: NATO membership and its famous Article V don’t seem to be worth much these days and this suggests Moscow has a point in its objections to the ABM plans.
Patrick Armstrong received a PhD from Kings College, University of London, England in 1976 and began working for the Canadian government as a defence scientist in 1977. He was Political Counsellor for the Canadian Embassy in Moscow from 1993 to 1996. He has been a frequent speaker at the Wilton Park conferences in the UK.
