"Northern Civilization" Must Unite

Rogozin's Rodina party was briefly banned after running a racist ad during the Moscow municipal elections in 2005
Dimitry Rogozin is an exceptionally clever Russian politician who has never shied away from the spotlight. Rogozin's nationalist Rodina (Motherland) Party drew both condemnation and attention in 2005, when it ran a campaign for seats in Moscow City parliament under the slogan, "We will rid Moscow of the garbage". That campaign featured a blatantly racist television ad depicting swarthy young Azerbaijani men as watermelon-eating hooligans harassing respectable Slavic mothers in a city park. In the TV spot, Rogozin and another Moscow Duma member, Dimitry Popov, confront the Azeris, defend a pram-pushing Russian mother and demand to know if the Azerbaijanis can even speak Russian.
While Rogozin may have exploited the fears of a demographically declining Slavic Russian majority to make a name for himself, he cannot be dismissed as a simpleton demagogue. As the son of a distinguished Soviet military historian and a member of the State Duma, Rogozin has a well-cultivated an image as an expert on national security and defense issues. Hence, his appointment by the Kremlin as Russia's Ambassador to NATO in January 2008.

The son of a distinguished Soviet military historian, Rogozin has cultivated an image as a national security expert and a strong supporter of the Russian military
In a recent interview with Russia Today TV about Russia's strained relations with the West and the NATO alliance, Rogozin commented in his usual style - acerbic, even sarcastic, and always pugnacious. Discussing Russia's war with Georgia in August 2008, which drew widespread international condemnation, he said in exasperation, "even before the dust had settled after the bombing of Tskhinval, we heard "It does not matter who attacked whom". I wish they had tried to tell the same to the U.S. after 9/11." Rogozin's complaint seems particularly relevant as prominent voices in the West like the BBC, International Herald Tribune, Washington Post, New York Times, Foreign Policy magazine, and Congressman Dana Rohrbacher (R-CA) all have questioned Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili's account of the war in recent months.
On the other hand, some of Rogozin's other claims seem dubious at best. Rogozin claimed that the handful of U.S. ballistic missile interceptors planned for Poland can strike targets in Moscow "within four minutes" and that this represents a totally destabilizing deployment, comparable to the Soviet Union placing nuclear missiles within eight minutes of Washington during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Implicit in Rogozin's argument is that these defensive missiles, designed to hit a "bullet with a bullet" in the upper atmosphere, can easily be retargeted to strike targets on the ground with pinpoint accuracy. In other words, Rogozin seems to have a much exagerrated view of the missiles' effectiveness and offensive potential, a view not shared by critics of the system who claim that the "Son of Star Wars" is unreliable and diverts resources from more urgent defense spending needs, such as supplying American troops in Afghanistan.
Nonetheless, Rogozin does have a point. Last year then-President Putin offered the U.S. access to a leased Russian radar base in Azerbaijan, much closer to the source of the ballistic missile threat from Iran, and was quietly rebuffed by the Bush Administration. The American radar to be placed in the Czech Republic would be capable of peering hundreds of miles into outer space as well as deep into Russian airspace, allowing it to track aircraft (including VIP flights) over Russia. If the shoe were on the other foot, the U.S. would likely not respond well to Russia or China placing a similarly powerful radar in Cuba, capable of tracking flights (including Air Force One) across the U.S. all the way to Canada.
When asked to explain why the U.S. and some European governments persist in advocating for the expansion of NATO into Ukraine, even with the threat from the old Soviet Union long gone and with the Russian military a shadow of its former might, Rogozin declared that "the military potential" of the new NATO members, "is zero."
"So it's not about acquiring valuable military allies, it's purely a political matter. As the Westerners themselves admit, it's a matter of a new political identity for the newly admitted countries. And this is the anti-Russian thing. This is why, when anybody in the Ukraine tries to change identity, to change Ukraine's historical choice, or, to put it simply, to tear Ukraine away from Russia, we are anxious. How else should we feel when there are so many ties with Russia? 40% of Russian families have immediate relatives in Ukraine, and 80% of Ukrainian families have relatives in Russia. This connection is impossible to break up. This is why such plans should be viewed as breakaway and aimed against Russia."
Perhaps a comparable analogy for Americans would be China or Russia forming a military alliance and placing bases in Mexico, a country that millions of U.S. citizens and residents share ties with from birth, family and culture. Rogozin went on to call for NATO and the European countries to redirect their focus against common threats emerging outside of Europe. Whether he was alluding to marauding Somali pirates, the Taliban resurgent in Afghanistan and Pakistan, or protecting Russia from the long term challenge of China, he said, "Who could be against demilitarizing the entire centre of the European continent using military force solely to defend our common borders in the Pacific area?"
When asked why NATO, the European Union, the OSCE and other international organizations persist in wanting to expand their club into former Soviet republics, to the exclusion of Russia, Rogozin chalked it up to bureaucratic inertia. If Ukraine and Georgia are not brought into the club, Rogozin suggests, then a whole bunch of NGO do-gooders, defense contractors, and bureaucrats will have to find new employment.
"The problem is that employees of all international organizations think, 'What's going to happen to me personally?' I refer to employees of the NATO Secretariat, employees of the European Commission, and employees of the OSCE headquarters in Vienna - they all think this. 'Will I keep getting my several-thousand-euro paycheck if that Medvedev guy realizes his concept?' They are afraid that a moment will come when people will simply sweep those lardy European bureaucrats out of their cozy seats."
Rogozin concluded his remarks with a conciliatory statement, calling for the U.S., Europe and Russia to unite against common adversaries: terrorists, pirates, and extremists around the world. Although it is unclear how representative Rogozin's views are of the Kremlin, he hints that Russia is not really that concerned about America once it drops the goal of NATO expansion, but rather is threatened by other forces, particularly those of radical jihadism. There is almost Spenglerian or Samuel P. Huntington theme in Rogozin's remarks; the notion that forces in the developing world, who still consider themselves victims of centuries of imperialism and colonialism, now want to take their revenge on America and Europe, and that a "clash of civilizations" is well underway:
"I think that in the 21st century, the real threat is posed by a certain bunch of people who think that you and I are second-class people. Those close-minded people simply don't recognize our right to live. They don't care who they are dealing with - Russians, Jews, Tatars, French, or British, or whoever, - they are all the same to them. To them, we are just a worthless civilization that must be destroyed. Let's hope our Western counterparts realise that those guys threaten us all in equal measure and that this plague advancing on the European continent will engulf us while we are all arguing...there are pirates rampant in Somalia, and tomorrow, I think, the entire African coast will be swarming with pirates, and there will not be enough warships to keep them at bay. There is an enormous distance between Europe and the Third World. There is a new civilization emerging in the Third World that thinks that the white, northern hemisphere has always oppressed it and must therefore fall at its feet now...If the northern civilization wants to protect itself, it must be united: America, the European Union, and Russia. If they are not together, they will be defeated one by one."
Ironically enough, although Rogozin is on the opposite side of the fence from most American and British neoconservatives, who fear and loathe his boss Vladimir Putin, his views have a lot in common with those of many "neocons", such as are left on the political scene following the defeat of their preferred presidential candidate, John McCain. Others would dismiss Rogozin's remarks as thinly veiled racism, expressing the largely unspoken fear of Slavic, Orthodox Christian Russians (and of many Europeans in general) that they will soon be minorities within their own countries due to low birth rates and immigration from Islamic countries.
Even so, Rogozin's complaint about missile defense may prove to be short lived, as a deal may be in the works for Russia to not deploy Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad in return for the incoming Obama Administration delaying activation the ground-based European missile shield indefinitely. The global economic crisis may also render moot any talk of a renewed arms race between Russia and the West, as both sides may not be able to afford it, and push the expansion of NATO to the back burner for European and American policy makers alike. Ideologies can always be overtaken by events, as Rogozin and the Kremlin elite have learned in their lifetimes, and Western leaders are now learning this lesson as well.
Click here to read the full text of Rogozin's interview.



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