When it comes to Russia, the differences among the US presidential candidates are so slight that there is little reason for Russians to prefer one over another.
Senator McCain's foreign policy advisory team mixes "realists" Robert McFarlane, Brent Scowcroft, Stephen E. Biegun, Lorne W. Craner, Richard Armitage, and Henry Kissinger with neo-con "hawks" Max Boot, R. James Woolsey, Niall Ferguson, Robert Kagan and William Kristol.
This combination is likely to produce the same sort of intellectual schizophrenia that it did at the outset of the Reagan administration. During its first two years initiatives were generated opportunistically within the NSC and the CIA, culminating in the spectacular but ultimately pointless sabotage in June 1982 of the new trans-Siberian gas pipeline. Ronald Reagan eventually put a stop to these dangerous shenanigans in April 1983 and dramatically changed his thinking, thanks in no small part to Suzanne Massie, who helped him develop an appreciation for the culture and religiosity of the Russian people.
Senator McCain, however, shows little sign of developing the intellectual flexibility or personal empathy that Ronald Reagan was famous for. McCain's foreign policy toward Russia is therefore likely to drift listlessly between overt hostility and grudging tolerance.
On the Democratic side, I would not dismiss Senator Clinton's chances of becoming president. Her senior foreign policy advisors, Madeleine K. Albright, Richard C. Holbrooke, Strobe Talbott, like those of Senator McCain, are all from a generation that dealt either with a weak and rudderless USSR, or a weak and vulnerable Russia. It was largely under their leadership that Washington stopped paying any attention to Russia at all, so perhaps it is an indication of things to come that, with the exception of Steven Sestanovich, Senator Clinton's advisory team seems unusually light when it comes to expertise on Russia.
Senator Obama says he represents "change," but there is very little of it to be seen among his Russia advisors--Zbigniew Brzezinski and his son Mark, W. Anthony Lake, Dennis B. Ross, and Michael McFaul.
In his latest interview on Echo of Moscow radio (March 8, 2008) Zbigniew Brzezinski calls president-elect Dmitry Medvedev a "nominal leader," compares Putin to Mussolini, dismisses Russian security concerns as "paranoia," and refers to NATO as "the dividing line between the Atlantic community and Russia." Later, in the same interview, Brzezinski draws a distinction between young Russians and "the dinosaurs" still in power. Bafflingly, he fails to see how appropriate this label would be to his own thinking.
For now, the dinosaurs are firmly in control of US foreign policy toward Russia, on both the Republican and the Democratic side. Senior advisors from all three campaigns took part in the March 2006 Council on Foreign Relations report, "Russia's Wrong Direction," co-chaired by Jack Kemp and John Edwards.
Criticized by Russian commentators as hopelessly out of touch with today's Russia, it remains, nevertheless, the touchstone of US thinking about Russia. So long as that is true, the only thing to expect from US policy toward Russia is a further slide into irrelevancy. The initiative for change, it seems, will have to come from Russia.
Nicolai N. Petro is professor of political science at the University of Rhode Island. He has served as special assistant for policy in the U.S. State Department, and as civic affairs advisor to the mayor of the Russian city of Novgorod the Great. His books include: The Rebirth of Russian Democracy (Harvard,1995), Russian Foreign Policy (Longman, 1997), and Crafting Democracy (Cornell, 2004).
Comments
Great post! I was directed here by my friend Kyle Keeton, author of Windows To Russia. I am an American politico and found your post very interesting. Thanks again for a great post!
Posted by: Barrett Laurie | March 21, 2008 8:25 AM
One reason that they should not support Obama is Zbigniew Brzezinski. He used the same tactic of using NGOs to mobilise Serbian youth against Milosevic when we were sponsering KLA terrorism against Serbs in Kosovo who have ethnically cleansed the Serb population from that province. Of course it doesn't really matter who is elected as all there senior advisor hate Russia anyway.
Posted by: james | March 22, 2008 4:19 AM
McCain 's the best bet. At least some of his advisors are thinking like adults about Russia.
Posted by: armchair pessimist | March 24, 2008 8:30 AM
man i hate usa 4 life and 1) wat the freek white country and now they have a black president?? many countries in the world make fun of this especial europians african rull the usa this will be fun and he wil respect more black and make the hier than whites because 1)always white presidents in usa respected more whites not blacks now will be other way
Posted by: sir | April 4, 2008 8:48 PM
Let's hope Barak Obama will visit Russia, look into the Mr.Medvedev's eyes and see his soul.:-) the old guard would be discarded as soon as he would become the President of the USA. Not for the sake of Russia, but for the sake of America I hope to see B.Obama in the Oval Office.
Posted by: Irene Ivanov | April 7, 2008 9:45 PM