Eduard Limonov, Garry Kasparov's opposition partner
The plan unfolds. My current take on the possibilities for the future division of power in Russia is here but it’s still too early to place bets. But a few tiny indications of my fifth hypothesis are floating around at the moment. The political problem with Russia is that it is still a one-man band; a band which all true lovers of power earnestly seek to join. Putin himself has spoken about how United Russia “needs rejuvenation and reorganisation” and of its other deficiencies.
There has been some speculation lately that he and Medvedev are trying to create a “loyal opposition” (a phrase, by the way, that is perfectly meaningful in Westminster-system countries). He and Medvedev met with Duma leaders (including Yavlinskiy interestingly, who, while not in the Duma, is the leader of the oldest liberal party) and apparently spoke about this. There is a story that Putin tried to get Yavlinskiy to unite with the other liberals two elections ago but he wouldn’t. The opposition in Russia today is stunt groupings like Other Russia (and its NatBol friends), the geriatric communist party or Zhirinovskiy’s personal vehicle.
This is not a “useful” opposition and does nothing to keep the majoritarian party “rejuvenated”. But the authorities can hardly create a genuine opposition party: its last attempt, Just Russia, hasn’t really taken off. But Yavlinskiy might be able to form or influence something, if he would ever deign to associate with anyone else. So perhaps a small straw in the wind. Meanwhile, Putin has instructed Igor Shuvalov, one of his staffers, to draw up plans for re-organising executive power so that, presumably, power will no longer be an attribute of the Presidential Administration only.
Reznik. Maksim Reznik, a St Petersburg Yabloko leader, was arrested and charged with assaulting a policeman on the 4th; he claims that he was just breaking up a fight. There have been several demonstrations in his support and apparently Yavlinskiy and Putin spoke about the case when they met.
Corruption. More chewing away at the problem. The Moscow Department of the Federal Corrections Service said that 25 officials had been punished in 2007 and a couple more have just been charged with embezzlement.
Kosovo precedent. Despite the best efforts of the EU, Washington and NATO to claim that Kosovo is not a precedent, people will persist in seeing it as one. The parliaments of North Ossetia and South Ossetia have formally asked the Russian parliament to recognise the former’s independence and Abkhazia has issued a formal appeal to various world bodies. I remain confident that Moscow will not, despite its lifting of the sanctions regime against Abkhazia this week (one theory is that it is connected with the Sochi Olympics), because it has its own precedents to worry about and, as Primakov just said, it would contradict its position on Kosovo itself.
Chechnya. I have long thought that the rulers of Chechnya, most of whom fought Moscow in the first war, still want as much independence as they can get away with. We just saw this in a small way with the decision of the Chechen Union of Journalists to pull out of the Russian union over the latter’s refusal to accept President Kadyrov as a member. But we also saw it in a more significant way when Kadyrov stated that oil produced in Chechnya should be refined in Chechnya. Control of Chechnya’s natural resources has been the occasion for a quiet struggle between Grozny and Moscow for some time now.
Gas wars. It was announced today that Gazprom and Naftogaz have come to complete agreement about gas prices and deliveries for 2008. Given the statement by the Central Asian exporters that they will start charging European prices next year, no agreement for 2009 was possible. The intermediaries are apparently out of the equation now. The price in Ukraine will, of course, go up; Ukrainian sources are talking US$179.50 tcm.
NATO Expansion. It is reported that at a recent meeting, the French and German Foreign Ministers spoke against membership for Ukraine or Georgia any time soon. The German even went so far as to say “we think that EU-Russia relations are absolutely important” and to warn against antagonising Moscow. Realisation of reality at long last? Or just a pause before Medvedev’s arrival?
Georgia-Russia. Moscow cut off air links with Georgia about 18 months ago, claiming that it hadn’t been paid. At the time this was played as another aggressive move by Moscow but on Friday the Georgian Economic Development Minister admitted the debt and said that it would be paid. Air service is expected to resume soon.
Patrick Armstrong received a PhD from Kings College, University of London, England in 1976 and began working for the Canadian government as a defence scientist in 1977. He was Political Counsellor for the Canadian Embassy in Moscow from 1993 to 1996. He has been a frequent speaker at the Wilton Park conferences in the UK.
