February 28, 2008
By Patrick Armstrong
Presidential hopeful Dmitry Medvedev talking with Russian students about Internet freedom
ELECTION: I confidently predict that Medvedev will win big and that the OSCE & Co will condemn the election for unbalanced media coverage (something that apparently makes a vital difference in Russia but not in Georgia) and the CIS observers will OK it. Each group has already written its assessment.
MIDDLE CLASS: The big Russian insurance company RosGosStrakh has a report out saying that the Russian middle class has grown greatly. This entity it defines as a monthly income per family member between US$500 and US$3000. Rather a large spread and not particularly big numbers but a huge improvement on the pre-Putin state of affairs. It is quite simply facts like this, and not TV coverage or any of the things that so exercise Western commentators, that will lead Russians on Sunday to vote for more of the same.
ADVERTISING: Another indicator of a middle class, and, dare I say, a civil society, is the report that the Russian advertising market grew 28% in 2007 to a value of US$2.36 billion.
DEMOGRAPHICS: Medvedev claimed a 10% reduction in the death rate, a 10% increase in the birth rate and the addition of a year to average life expectancy since 2005.
MOSCOW AND KOSOVO: Nezavisimaya Gazeta (which can’t have read Amnesty International’s report about how the authorities have “clamped down on the peaceful exercise of the rights to freedom of expression”) produced strong criticism of Moscow’s reaction: “Defeated in the battle for Kosovo, Moscow and Belgrade had better concentrate on preventing primitive behaviour” and recommends that Moscow not doggedly defend causes that have little chance of success. Some wisdom here: in the prevailing climate when so many reflexively see everything Moscow says as a “threat”, it’s probably better to say nothing and watch events unfold. The self-satisfied smirks can wait until later.
THE RUSSIANS ARE COMING! With tens of billions in the new Reserve Fund, Moscow is planning to invest in Western “government-backed companies”. Moscow will then have a direct financial stake in Western economic growth and stability: therefore it is not interested in hostility. It will take some time, however, for this obvious deduction to sink in.
QUALITY CONTROL: Algeria is returning some fighter planes complaining about quality (although it may just be that Paris is offering a better deal) and a Norwegian company has cancelled a ship-building contract.
KOVALYOV: The veteran dissident Sergey Kovalyov has sent an open letter to Putin and others decrying the electoral process: “a tasteless farce played out by untalented directors” and saying Russia today is in a “dead end from which not one path leads to democracy”. Most Russians would not agree with him: see for example, Russian responses to the recent New York Times piece. The Russian opposition is simply out-of-touch with the reality on the ground. Quite apart from the fact that they spend more time quarrelling with each other than anything else and that many are associated with the 1990s, a period most Russian hate.
PIPELINES: Hungary’s PM told Medvedev that Hungary will take part in Gazprom’s planned South Stream pipeline project. This line is supposed to run from Russia, along the Black Sea floor, to Bulgaria and points west. Those obsessed with the zero-sum idea that Russian pipelines are to be prevented at all costs see this as a blow to the Nabucco line which is to run from Turkey through Bulgaria. The Hungarian PM, however, says he would like to see both lines built. And why not? “energy security” from the buyer’s point of view is many suppliers.
GAS WARS: Ukrainian President Yushchenko says that the debt for gas from Russia has been “resolved” which presumably means that it is in process of being paid off. There remains some bickering over details, however.
MOSCOW-TBILISI: Putin and Saakashvili ironed out some problems on Monday. Tbilisi’s big weapon is that Moscow wants to get into the WTO and Tbilisi has some sort of veto. The Georgian Foreign Minister reported a promise not to recognise Abkhazia or South Ossetia although Tbilisi again refused to sign a formal pledge that it wouldn’t use force. It has also been reported that the two agreed to joint Russian/Georgian manning of border posts between Russia and South Ossetia and Abkhazia – a long-time demand by Tbilisi. Sukhumi is reported to be quite angry. Air traffic is to be resumed at the end of next month. So a number of issues cleared up at last. Perhaps the fact that Putin is going and Saakashvili is not helped. Putin and President Yushchenko got through a lot of business the other week too – is he trying to leave the deck clear for Medvedev?
Patrick Armstrong received a PhD from Kings College, University of London, England in 1976 and began working for the Canadian government as a defence scientist in 1977. He was Political Counsellor for the Canadian Embassy in Moscow from 1993 to 1996. He has been a frequent speaker at the Wilton Park conferences in the UK.
