Mars is heating up at the same time as Earth
A Russian astronomer may have declared his own "inconvenient truth" for advocates of man-made climate change this week. According to Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of the Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in St. Petersburg, polar ice caps on the planet Mars are melting, and the Red Planet is experiencing a warming trend at the same time as the Earth. Abdussamatov cites this is evidence that solar radiation is the main cause of global warming.
Scientists who support the view that human beings are responsible for global warming have dismissed Abdussamatov's claims. In their view, the Martian heat wave is caused by changes in the Red Planet's rotation on its axis rather than more solar radiation. "His [Abdussamatov's] views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion," said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University.
Last month the world media was quick to trumpet the findings of the United Nations International Panel on Climate Change, which concluded that human beings were to blame for global warming and that governments urgently needed to take action to curtail carbon dioxide emissions. It will be interesting to see how much coverage Dr. Abdussamatov's dissenting view receives.
UPDATE: Click here to read a World Politics Watch article about other Russian scientists views of global climate change and whether or not human beings are the driving force behind it.
Click on the extened post to read the full National Geographic article.
Group photo of scientists from the Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in St. Petersburg
Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says
Kate Ravilious for National Geographic News
February 28, 2007
Simultaneous warming on Earth and Mars suggests that our planet's recent climate changes have a natural—and not a human- induced—cause, according to one scientist's controversial theory.
Earth is currently experiencing rapid warming, which the vast majority of climate scientists says is due to humans pumping huge amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
Mars, too, appears to be enjoying more mild and balmy temperatures.
In 2005 data from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey missions revealed that the carbon dioxide "ice caps" near Mars's south pole had been diminishing for three summers in a row.
Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of the St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, says the Mars data is evidence that the current global warming on Earth is being caused by changes in the sun.
"The long-term increase in solar irradiance is heating both Earth and Mars," he said.
Solar Cycles
Abdussamatov believes that changes in the sun's heat output can account for almost all the climate changes we see on both planets.
Mars and Earth, for instance, have experienced periodic ice ages throughout their histories.
"Man-made greenhouse warming has made a small contribution to the warming seen on Earth in recent years, but it cannot compete with the increase in solar irradiance," Abdussamatov said.
By studying fluctuations in the warmth of the sun, Abdussamatov believes he can see a pattern that fits with the ups and downs in climate we see on Earth and Mars.
Abdussamatov's work, however, has not been well received by other climate scientists.
"His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion," said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University.
"And they contradict the extensive evidence presented in the most recent IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] report." (Related: "Global Warming 'Very Likely' Caused by Humans, World Climate Experts Say" [February 2, 2007].)
Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that "the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations."
Planets' Wobbles
The conventional theory is that climate changes on Mars can be explained primarily by small alterations in the planet's orbit and tilt, not by changes in the sun.
"Wobbles in the orbit of Mars are the main cause of its climate change in the current era," Oxford's Wilson explained. (Related: "Don't Blame Sun for Global Warming, Study Says" [September 13, 2006].)
All planets experience a few wobbles as they make their journey around the sun. Earth's wobbles are known as Milankovitch cycles and occur on time scales of between 20,000 and 100,000 years.
These fluctuations change the tilt of Earth's axis and its distance from the sun and are thought to be responsible for the waxing and waning of ice ages on Earth.
Mars and Earth wobble in different ways, and most scientists think it is pure coincidence that both planets are between ice ages right now.
"Mars has no [large] moon, which makes its wobbles much larger, and hence the swings in climate are greater too," Wilson said.
No Greenhouse
Perhaps the biggest stumbling block in Abdussamatov's theory is his dismissal of the greenhouse effect, in which atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide help keep heat trapped near the planet's surface.
He claims that carbon dioxide has only a small influence on Earth's climate and virtually no influence on Mars.
But "without the greenhouse effect there would be very little, if any, life on Earth, since our planet would pretty much be a big ball of ice," said Evan, of the University of Wisconsin.
Most scientists now fear that the massive amount of carbon dioxide humans are pumping into the air will lead to a catastrophic rise in Earth's temperatures, dramatically raising sea levels as glaciers melt and leading to extreme weather worldwide.
Abdussamatov remains contrarian, however, suggesting that the sun holds something quite different in store.
"The solar irradiance began to drop in the 1990s, and a minimum will be reached by approximately 2040," Abdussamatov said. "It will cause a steep cooling of the climate on Earth in 15 to 20 years."
Comments
THANK YOU FOR SHOWING THE VIABLE REALITY BEHIND CURRENT EARTH TEMPERATURE INCREASES. HOPEFULLY THE REST OF AMERICA AND THE INDUSTRIAL WEST WILL BE ABLE TO USE THIS DATA TO DISPUTE AND COUNTER-ACT THE AL GORE'S AND OTHER DEVIOUS INDIVIDUALS (Democrats) WITH AMERICA-BUSTING OBJECTIVES IN MIND.
Bruce Bandorick, MEM
THUNDER BASIN Environmental Consulting, Inc.
307-684-1277
tbec@wyoming.com
Posted by: Bruce W. Bandorick, MEM | March 2, 2007 8:00 PM
After explaining Abdussamatov's theory, the article reported that the theory has "not been well received by other climate scientists." The article first quoted "Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University" saying that Abdussamatov's "views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion" and that they "contradict the extensive evidence presented in the most recent IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] report." The article added that "[t]he conventional theory is that climate changes on Mars can be explained primarily by small alterations in the planet's orbit and tilt, not by changes in the sun" and that "most scientists think it is pure coincidence that both planets are between ice ages right now."
Finally, the article reported that "the biggest stumbling block in Abdussamatov's theory is his dismissal of the greenhouse effect," and quoted Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, who said that "without the greenhouse effect there would be very little, if any, life on Earth, since our planet would pretty much be a big ball of ice."
Posted by: rob bned | March 3, 2007 11:12 AM
Europe is the “International” authority in all that is “right”, and is progressively usurping all that is “America”. Europe is on the road toward world domination, with new ideas and inventions.
Posted by: Andy Reaume | March 3, 2007 2:23 PM
what? so now theres water on mars?
Posted by: what | March 4, 2007 12:17 AM
i learnt something from global warming.
Posted by: Anonymous | March 4, 2007 10:51 AM
Radiation from the our Sun and possibly also other suns (stars) within our galaxy may also contribute to our current cycle of global warming. Our entire solar system revolves around our galaxy causing changes in radiation from outer stars. We should expect some change in our weather patterns from changes in radiation from all these sources.
Posted by: Donald Swenson | March 4, 2007 2:21 PM
Putin did the "global warming"
Putin did it!!
Posted by: Boris | March 4, 2007 3:31 PM
It's good to see scientists publicly challenging the orthodoxy of the current Global Warming cult. We would do well to take Dr. Abdussamatov seriously.
Posted by: YankeeAlpha | March 5, 2007 10:10 AM
Is it valid to correlate the events of another planet to Earth? I think it may be just as relevant as comparing to our own planet thousands of years ago. All of this data needs to be combined for better analysis.
http://globalwarming-factorfiction.com
Posted by: Sean O | March 5, 2007 1:08 PM
Great Job Keep up the good work and DON'T give up.
Posted by: Michael O'Dell | March 8, 2007 5:13 PM
Here is an url that you can send to friends and family that will direct them to the video "The Great Global Warming Swindle".
http://gorelied.notlong.com
For more information on the documentary you can go here.
http://www.channel4.com/science/microsites/G/great_global_warming_swindle/index.html
Posted by: Sean | March 11, 2007 5:14 AM
Thanks for this very interesting article.
Obviously four synchronious events are currently happening :
* global warming on planet Earth
* global warming on other planets
* increasing number of moons around several planets
* increasing number of meteorites reaching the Earth 's atmosphere
I recommend this article that explains in a very consistent way the correlations between those four factors :
http://www.signs-of-the-times.org/articles/show/128992-Forget+
About+Global+Warming%3A+We%27re+One+Step+From+Extinction%21
Posted by: Petrus | April 5, 2007 5:36 AM
Unfortunately for Dr. Abdussamatov's theory, National Geographic just posted another article about the current warming on Mars, which says it can be explained by a decrease in the planet's albedo caused by dust devils scouring the surface. This apparently would be in addition to any long-term warming caused by the Martian equivalent of Earth's Milankovitch cycles.
Posted by: Cholst | April 5, 2007 3:04 PM
Hey Mars has giant sand storms too, maybe our planet will have that someday, since I guess our weather and Mars is linked somehow.
Posted by: BEM | August 12, 2007 6:22 PM
I think maybe someday earth will almost be twins!
Posted by: Starr Cash | April 5, 2008 7:44 AM
Firstly, thanks to rob bned (post above) for restating the quotes from Karen Ravilious' article. Careful re-reading made me see that both scientists quoted do not actually support the Gore/Global Investment Management/IPCC line on anthropogenic warming. The way you simply re-presented the quotes without making your point too obviously was quite cool.
Secondly, it is clear that funding is avaliable on demand for any young researcher that wants to help re-assess troublesome data that does not support the IPCC polemic. This occured recently with the reassessment of annoying satellite and transponder temperature readings of the equatorial troposphere which showed less warming there than models predicted. Dust storms are occasionally planet-wide on Mars. But Cholst (above post), I wonder how much a few big storms could change the colour (~absorption) of an entire planet. And doesn't atmospheric particulate (like volcanic ash or dust) usually cause cooling, not warming? The carbon-credits and nuclear-power marketeers know that anything can be proved with numbers, or in this case climate models. So the new dust theory refuting Dr Abussamatov's work is really just to be expected. The Dr has been courageous to speak against the tide. Consider the following: Gore's firm (GIM) has five billion US dollar capital from investors, and the man himself set up a $300m marketing budget to promote action on man-made global warming. A few million spent on quick-fix modelling research to keep the 21st Century's South Sea Bubble growing a while longer would be chicken-feed.
Posted by: Snozzle | January 6, 2009 5:25 AM
When I showed this to my husband, his remark was "Most mainstream scientific opinion used to be that the world was flat too". Neither of us believe in Al Gore's global warming theory. Earth has been through many heating and cooling cycles in it's history. This is just the pendulum moving again, in my humble opinion.
Posted by: Beth | February 14, 2009 2:30 PM