President Bush and Georgian President Saakashvili in Tblisi in 2005
On Saturday, November 4, the Doha, Qatar-based Gulf Times newspaper reported that Georgian officials are considering importing natural gas from Iran via Azerbaijan in the event Russia cuts them off this winter. While Georgia might have no other choice but to freeze or accept the prices Gazprom will dictate, maybe it's time for Americans to ask what U.S. vital interest will be served by Georgia sending more money to Teheran instead of Moscow.
Click on the extended post to read the full article.
Baku-Tblisi-Teheran? Not exactly what two U.S. Administrations intended
See also the Wikipedia entry for the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline
Georgia eyes BP, Iran for replacing Russian energy
Publish Date: Saturday,4 November, 2006, at 09:24 AM Doha Time
TBILISI: Georgia believes gas from Iran and a BP-led project in Azerbaijan could fully replace Russian fuel after Moscow threatened to double prices amid a political row with Tbilisi, a minister said yesterday.
"It is technically possible to meet Georgia's gas demand (with alternative gas)," Georgia's Energy Minister Nika Gilauri told said.
"We can get three, four, five billion cubic metres of gas. Really, this is a subject for talks," he said.
Russia's gas monopoly Gazprom threatened on Thursday to more than double gas prices for Georgia from 2007 in a rise Tbilisi branded as political.
Russia has cut transport links with Georgia in a row rooted in Tbilisi's pro-Western policies and a fight for influence over separatist Georgian regions propped up by Moscow.
Gazprom wants Georgia to pay $230 per 1,000 cu m from 2007.
If that price becomes final the Caucasus state - where the World Bank says the average person's income is just over $100 a month - would be paying the same price as Gazprom's rich customers in the European Union.
Many analysts and politicians, including US Vice-President Dick Cheney, have said the Kremlin often uses its vast energy resources to blackmail its smaller neighbours.
In January, Gazprom briefly cut supplies to Ukraine following a pricing dispute with the pro-Western leadership in Kiev. The cutoff also briefly reduced transit supplies to Europe and shocked the European Union.
Georgia's best potential alternative is gas from the Shakh Deniz field off Azerbaijan's Caspian Sea coast. The field is operated by a consortium of BP and Norway's Statoil.
That consortium is completing work on a pipeline linking the field to the Turkish market, via Georgia.
Under its transit contract, Georgia from 2007 is entitled to take off the first 250mn cu m at a price of $63 per 1,000 cu m. It is unclear what price Georgia would pay for anything over that quota.
The link's total capacity is around 8bn cu m a year and Turkey will buy the bulk of this gas at the first stage. Capacity could then double if the group agrees to export more gas to southern Europe via Turkey.
Iran, which has the world's second largest gas reserves after Russia, has at times this year been supplying small volumes to Georgia. Gilauri said these volumes could rise.
Georgia, with a population of about 5mn people, consumes around 1.8bn cu m a year. Gazprom supplies most of this gas at a price of $110 per 1,000 cu m.
Meanwhile, Russia's ambassador in Minsk said yesterday that Moscow may raise gas prices for its political ally Belarus fourfold unless it is given some control of gas pipelines.
Such an increase could virtually destroy the Belarussian economy, which is still run along the Soviet-era command economy lines with the government controlling most prices and ordering companies what to produce.
Ambassador Alexander Surikov told a news conference Russia may raise gas prices for Belarus to $200 per 1,000 cu m from about $47 at the moment unless a deal allowing some degree of control over pipelines that carry gas to Russia's customers in Poland and Germany is reached.
"Today, we name a gas price for Belarus at $200 per 1,000 cu m," Surikov said.
Russia's gas giant Gazprom and Belarus have been in talks over creating a joint venture to manage gas pipelines for several years. But Minsk has repeatedly rejected Russian demands for more control over the pipelines.
President Alexander Lukashenko, accused in the West of crushing human rights and freedoms, has repeatedly defended low gas prices for Belarus, saying otherwise he might sever all relations with Russia.
Surikov also said Russia might cut oil supplies to Belarus significantly next year if the two sides fail to agree to unify duties on oil products refined at Belarussian refineries from Russian crude oil.
Surikov said Russia wanted Belarus to raise the duties to the Russian level of $180 from current $57. Moscow also wants Belarus to transfer up to 85% of the amount raised from the new oil products duties to the Russian state budget.
"A process of signing the balance for next year is suspended because Russia wants to discuss a question of sharing export duties," he said.
Belarus will receive 19.75mn tonnes of crude oil from Russia this year and wanted to ask it to raise supplies next year to 21.5mn tonnes.
Experts said Belarus received about $3.7bn in hard currency earnings from exporting oil products refined from the Russian crude.
"I am not saying that we are giving someone a gift now but let's share the duties," Surikov said.
Russia will also be unable to export electricity to Belarus next year as Moscow would need more to cover domestic demand.
Russia is Belarus's main political ally. Lukashenko plans to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow next week to discuss the issues.
This is just my take on things but is it possible this isn't just about money? For example could this just be Russia's way of saying to the U.S. that if it plays geopolitics over energy so can Russia? I'd be interested to know if I'm completely off message on this one.
LOL, is Georgian political leaders think that Iran's gas will be cheaper for them?
I think, one phone call from Putin to Ahmadinezhad (sorry, dont know how to write his name), and Iran can refuse to sell anything to Georgia. Even without any calls from Putin, Iran really don't like Americans vassals countries such Georgia much :)
“maybe it's time for Americans to ask what U.S. vital interest will be served by Georgia sending more money to Teheran instead of Moscow.â€
This is laughable! The implication of this statement is what? The Putin government is acting/reacting with Georgia because it is concerned about the vital interests of the United States?
The U.S. is no paragon of virtue, but even at its worst moments the U.S. has the ability to self correct. e.g. Tuesday 7 November 2006. But Putin is out to make Russia a “Great Powerâ€, and is bent upon using the only global asset it has (and has ever!) possessed to achieve its goal; Oil & Gas. And is willing to use any and all means to get there. (e.g. assassinating journalists)
When Iran gets its nuclear weapon in 5 years, it is not the U.S. which will be most threatened by the proliferation this will bring. It is the Russian Federation which will feel the brunt.
The situation with Georgia is all about “powerâ€. And as long as Russians allow Putin and his cronies to continue down this path, the worse it will be for Russians in the near, mid and long term.
Sadly, Russia is well down the path of becoming, once again, a one party state, with a dictator of the proletariat controlling the commanding heights of the economy. It didn’t work before, why would any Russian think it would work this time?
Stalinism did not happen overnight. And amazingly one of the milestones of his path to dictatorship was the swallowing of Georgia in to the Soviet Union. Few in Russia saw the danger of empire then, and very few Russians see it now.
Understand, that when Iran gets its nuke, the Chechens will get it shortly after, and with one act, they will do to Moscow what Moscow did to Grozny. And Russia has but one “major†city.
Fix your political system, or suffer the pain your emperors will once again bring you with their grand ambitions.
What I meant by that statement is asking what our policy towards Georgia has won for the U.S., and how has it benefitted us? Has it really advanced U.S. interests or values? See our previous posts on this topic referring to John Hulsman and Anatol Lieven's commentary for the International Herald Tribune (IHT):
http://www.russiablog.org/2006/10/georgian_opposition_leader_spe.html
Does Russia have any other alternatives? Obtaining a nuke in today's world isn't impossible, only warheads are difficult to develop as well as delivery systems. Once delivery systems are developed by Iran as they are with Israel, who'll be safer, Russia or America.
"Stalinism did not happen overnight. And amazingly one of the milestones of his path to dictatorship was the swallowing of Georgia in to the Soviet Union. Few in Russia saw the danger of empire then, and very few Russians see it now." Before someone starts to explain Russia one should know Russia. Georgia was associated with Russia for hundreds of years.Thee was a Czarist Empire for hundreds of years. Stalin himself did not have a drop of Russian blood. He was Georgian with some Ossettian blood. I would suggest that the Chechen Mujahadeen would sooner get what they want from Pakistan than from
Iran. Finally Communist China has proved that large , government-controlled corporations with private resources could sweep the world before them. China has accumulated reserves of a trillion dollars mostly from trading with the US. If China were to unload a portion of its American bonds and dollars there would be such a run on the dollar that it would be the second visible image of Earth from Space.
Really I do not see any problem. The Abkhazians and the Ossettians are definitely not Georgia. and do not see what Georgia has to do with them. Georgia can get it's energy needs from Iran and can use the American aid to pay for it. Russia can sell its gas to any one country from the scores requesting it, Georgia will stay warm and the US will, no doubt, be thrilled.
Ravikumar,
Your reply comment is interesting, but the logic is flawed.
The Russian Tsarist empire ceased to exist on March 17 1917 when the Tsar abdicated and his brother declined to be Tsar. Then the Provisional government took control under Kerensky. The Bolsheviks seized power on or about October 25, 1917.
During the subsequent Civil War, the Bolsheviks rallied people to their side against the White Guards through the propaganda and promises of Lenin’s writings. One of these tracts was the “The Right of Nations to Self-Determinationâ€. (http://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1914/self-det/index.htm)
Additionally, the Fifth All-Russian Congress of Soviets adopted a constitution on July 10, 1918. In Article 1 Chapter 4, the right of self -determination is enunciated.
(http://www.marxists.org/history/ussr/government/constitution/1918/article1.htm)
Based upon this thinking, the Bolsheviks “guaranteed†self determination to those regions of the Russian Empire who would join with the Bolsheviks in their struggle with the White Guards and the foreign interventionists.
At the conclusion of the Civil War, in the spring of 1922, at the 11th Congress there was a great debate among the Bolsheviks as to whether or not Lenin had forsaken the principle of self-determination for restoration of “one and indivisible†Russia of old. The debate was provoked by Stalin’s actions in Georgia. Under the direction of Stalin, Ordzhonikidze led a Russian Bolshevik army to invade Georgia in 1921.
Stalin, as Commissar of Nationalities of the RUSSIAN Republic, was in the process of eliminating (a.k.a. killing) his rivals in Georgia under the guise of Bolshevik discipline. Accusing Georgian and Ukrainian Bolsheviks of being “national deviationists†Stalin pushed through the constitution of 1924 which eliminated both the Russian federation and the right to self-determination, and installed the USSR. The new constitution instituted one party rule in the USSR. And one party morphed into one man rule.
The issue is not Russian/Georgian “associationâ€. The issue is imperialism. Russian imperialism towards Georgia.
The chemical composition of Stalin’s blood and the ethnic blood’s determination over one’s mind is beyond the scope of my knowledge. Apparently you have access to some definitive research in this area? Or perhaps you have carelessly thrown it in to your argument much like President Putin did?
In any event, Stalin spent 31 of his 75 years ruling a Russian empire from the same place President Putin sits, the Kremlin in Moscow Russia. Stalin led a Russian intervention of Georgia on the pretext of Russian security. In 2006, Putin has his own pretexts. Amazingly, Putin, the man who has led the violent fight against self-determination in Chechnya since 1999, is very concerned about this principal in Abkhazia and Ossetia in 2006.
And if you want to debate President Putin on this point, please take care to write your will, because you will probably end up like those who tried before you; Anna Politkovskaya for example. And as happened to Lev Trotsky.
ps. regarding the off-topic and mixed metaphor “If China were to unload a portion of its American bonds and dollars there would be such a run on the dollar that it would be the second visible image of Earth from Space.â€, to whom would China sell dollar to and for which currency? You understand that your proposition is absurd?
know the truth
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhhyZjNApBg