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May 8, 2006
Russian Media: Cheney's Remarks May Cost Boeing Aeroflot Contract

787DreamlinerA350.jpg
Several Russian media outlets are reporting this week that Aeroflot will purchase Airbus instead of Boeing airliners

In the last year, Aeroflot has been negotiating to purchase 22 long-distance Boeing 787 Dreamliners, worth $3 billion dollars. Under the contract, Boeing would have started delivering the planes in 2008 and completed the order in 2009.

Since the early 1990s, there has been fierce competition between Airbus and Boeing for dominance in the global airliner market. When Aeroflot recently modernized its medium-range fleet, it replaced Boeing 737s with Airbus A320s. Nonetheless, for several years Aeroflot has used Boeings 767s for its long distance routes. Now Gazeta.ru, Vedomosti.ru and several other Russian media outlets are reporting that Aeroflot is reconsidering the Boeing purchase, due to the political uproar sparked last week by Vice President Cheney's remarks about Russia. Aeroflot is now likely to order A350s manufactured by Boeing's rival Airbus.

The final decision on this purchase will be made on May 10, and it looks like Americans here in Seattle will lose a very large lucrative contract due to the Vice President's irresponsible remarks. Russia Blog is wondering why the Vice President, the Administration and certain U.S. Senators have all recently decided to step up their harsh criticism of the Kremlin lately. Why now?

Russian sources on this topic:
- Gazeta.Ru
- Vedomosti
- Inline.Ru
- Mail.Ru



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22 Comments

With China, the premise of business before politics is often utilized.

In relation to Russia, there's a pattern of stupidity before business.

Go ahead and buy Airbus's A350 if the 787 is the better airplane then aeroflot will be a flop along with the rest of the dummy airlines that buy the A350.

This isn't the first time that the US administration has criticized the Russian Federation when speaking in a former soviet bloc country. I imagine it is a bit tempting to want to play to the crowd, however, I don't think that is what is necessarily going on here.

I think that Bush thought Putin was someone he could trust before 9/11. You know, the whole looking into Putin’s eyes and seeing a kindred soul thing. However, during and after the run-up to the war in Iraq, Bush (as well as many others in the US) felt that Putin stabbed him (us) in the back by siding with France and Germany. During this same time, many of the former Warsaw pact / Baltic countries were giving their support to the US and helping with the “War on Terrorism”.

You also have that weird speech by Putin shortly after the Beslan massacre where Putin seems to indicate that it was the “West” (US and western European countries?) who was ultimately to blame for the atrocities in Beslan. At this time, Putin was also pushing to consolidate power in the Kremlin by ending local elections of governors. Then, there was that speech where Putin was pandering to the pensioner crowd and said that there were some good things about the USSR. All this, combined with Russia’s current attempts to stop the UN from getting tough with Iran, has not made them many friends in Washington.

As a result, the US administration sees no reason to be nice to Russia and treat Putin with kid gloves anymore, especially when in the company of other people that are not big fans of Putin and Russia. Then again, maybe Cheney just criticized Putin to pander to the crowd he was speaking to. All of this is just pure conjecture on my part, so take it for what it’s worth.

Aeroflot needs to upgrade and modify its decrepit fleet in the quickest manner. The Russian laws imposing extreme tariffs on foreign made aircraft have hindered Aeroflot’s need in this area for years.
Now when Aeroflot has the authorization to spend the money, and has come to the same conclusion ¾ of all airlines making the same decision regarding Boeing 787 vs Airbus A350, the government aims to step in and alter the deal.


For Boeing, the Russian news may be better than the profit to be made on a $3 billion order.

“The only reason to order A350s is to stick it in George Bush’s eye!”

Maybe all of the airline execs who don’t need to worry about profit/loss will flock to the A350.

Putin’s attempt to rebuild the Soviet single integrated and government run economy is exactly what Cheney was speaking to when he made his ill timed and inconsiderate public complaint.

Of course Putin need not worry. These chickens won’t come home to roost until well after he is gone. The earliest the A350 will be available is 2010, and news this week says a redesign of the poorly selling plane may push first deliveries out to 2012.

Aeroflot should've bought Ilyushin Il-96-400 long-range widebody jets.

With Aviadvigatel PS-90-A2 engines, 11,000 km range, Russian avionics, 30% better price than either Airbus or Boeing and thousands of Russian jobs that should have been an easy decision to make.

Airlines that wait for the A350 to be redesigned will lose Billions in fuel savings in the four or five years they wait for this new model to be built and by that time Boeing will have newer ways to make their 787 better then it is now. Ha, Ha, Ha, go ahead and buy the A350 and Boeing will have the last Laughed along with all the smart airlines that have bought the 787.

Seattle will lose a very large lucrative contract due to the Vice President’s irresponsible remarks.Whether that remark was responsible or not does not depend on the welfare of Boeing's sale figure this year.

And you saying so is a damn shame, and a continuing proof to me that you really don't understand capitalism beyond "making it rich."

It's not about the money. It's about the rule of law and minimal interference from the government in market decisions.

Well, James, that's exactly what I'm talking about "less interference from the government", period. What does Cheney have to do with anything he was talking about? Russia is freer today than it was during Eltzin (or Soviet Union). I’m sorry if this is the best we’ve done so far, but it is the best! My mom is visiting me right now from Moscow (we're having dinner with you on Monday in DC), my friends have companies and travel around the world; you can say anything you like about Putin and his surrounding (who by the way really has 70-80% approval rating).

Things are corrupt and bad in Russia, but they have changed for much better in the past few years. Why don't you guys just leave it alone, while it found its own niche of improvement, or may be this is exactly what America and other countries don't want - another big player with oil, resources and a different opinion. Instead of bashing – you should support Russia. It’s OK if Putin issued that unofficial rule of not selling Russian hard assets to the foreigners. Russians are safe with these assets and money – the oil dollars in Russia are not going for Jihad, which should be already an accomplishment.

Speaking about free markets - America still has Jeckson - Venik Amendment from 1974, and tons of sanctions against Cuba and others. Sanctions is the way, is that what you're trying to say? And speaking about 3 billion dollars - I think it's a lot of money, even for Boeing. Exxon is happy with 36 billion profits last year; well, 3 billion is 9% of that in one contract alone. Again, I think a lot of people think that they know a lot about Russia (and may be they do), but they don't really know Russia itself, Russian people and mentality. The way things have been and are. With these oil prices and liberalization in all areas of nation's life Russia has the first shot for success in many years. The last one was in 1991 and Eltzin blew it.

Yuri, freedom is not traveling, nor is it having companies. These are benefits. Russia is not more free today than it was 10 years ago. The most important component of freedom is the freedom to be in power over the government. Outside of “United Russia”, there is no political party. There is no viable opposition.

What has changed in the past few years is the amount of money the country receives due to oil and gas prices. What has changed in the past few years is the near disappearance of a populace concerned about democratic government. (and we can make this same argument about the USA, with the exception that it has proven institutions that allow for correction).

I agree that Cheney’s remarks were badly made at the wrong place at the wrong time. But these are style points.
The USA and its officials should support democracy. (we may not do it well, but 1991 would not have happened with out the good old flawed USA.)

If Aeroflot chooses the A350 over the 787 because of a “political” decision, the losers shall be Aeroflot’s stakeholders – the shareholders, the customers and the employees.

As a resident of Seattle and a Russian, no doubt you have occasionally flown the direct route Aeroflot used to offer from Seattle to Moscow. Ever seen many empty seats in the economy section of that 767? But Aeroflot could not make money on that route with the increase in fuel prices. Why? Because the 767 does not offer the dollar per seat per mile economies to meet the cost of operating the flight. The 787 with its 9 seats in economy does meet that need. The A350 with its 8 seat configuration will not. So, the bottom line for you, is that (just like me) you need to go through LA or New York and pay about $500 more.

Yeltsin did not fail in 1991. The Russian people are failing to execute on their responsibilities to BE a FREE nation. And Putin is now leading the charge.

If Cheney chooses to be a buffoon (and remember, he shot his good friend in the face), that is neither a good or logical reason for Putin to act “asymmetrically” and be stupid.

In a FREE country, Aeroflot should be free to choose the products that meet its business model.

If the Russian people accept this, then the Russian people should be prepared to accept the consequences (and by the way, the news of the Aeroflot decision did not in any way hurt the Boeing stock price.)

And what does President Putin say is Russia’s biggest problem? Demographic decline. If it is getting continually better in Russia, why are people still flocking to leave? Why is alcoholism still so deadly to men over 50 years?

The answer is that despite the current economic prosperity most people know and understand it can (and bet that it will) all change for the worse in a moment – without warning. This, as you know, is the Russian mentality. And the only way it can and will change is when Russian people stand up and assert themselves. Putin may or may not be a strong leader, but the strong leadership in a free democracy needs to come from people like you.

Bush should not stop me from going to Cuba, and Putin should not stop Aeroflot from choosing the plane that best meets their needs.

To the last post:

I see that you live in the area and are Russian, exactly like me. What can I say - I agree with you on everything. And as you mention, Russian people have to stand up themselves, which they seem to be incapable of doing according to their mentality. What is standing up is something scary and radical. I'd say Putin is better than fascism or Stalinism.

I believe in Putin's actions right now, because I am 100% confident that he'll be gone in two years, and I don't think his team will stay in control as much as many Aericans think it will. I'm not saying that Putin and his actions are good. Everything is bad; everything is corrupt, stagnated, detached from the rest of the world. I guess what I'm trying to say is, Russian nation is choosing the lesser of several evils. With Eltzin they chose very evil and lost a lot, now they are on a new pass, which might not be the best, but is better than the ones before.

I agree that people like us, who can analyze everything from the outside should contribute as much to Russia as possible. I see my work in reporting the true facts about what's happening, and giving a Russian opinion to American reactions, which very often are detached from the Russian reality and mentality. Recently I've been trying to explain to American audience why Russians like Putin and what are the good sides of him. Everybody knows that the nation is drunk and in decline. And it's not just Putin to be blamed for it; through in Eltzin, Gaidar, Chubays, Gorbachev and the rest.

Again, I think as Russians we should push other Russians towards understanding free market, because free market is the answer. As Russians in America we should fill in the voids that exist here in the coverage and understanding of Russia.

Thank you for your very deep and knowledgeable comment.

No, Yuri, that is NOT what you were talking about.

Let me clarify this for you.

1) If the Russian government ordered Aeroflot to purchase Airbus instead of Boeing for political reasons (as a payback for VP Cheney's remark), that is state interference on a business activity.

2) If VP Cheney ordered Boeing not to sell to Russia because of the Putin government's abuses, that would also be state interference.

Item 1) occurred, but item 2) did not.
Yuri, freedom is not traveling, nor is it having companies.I could not have said it better, Mr. Anonymous.

This, fundamentally, is Yuri's problem. He equates economic gain with freedom. What he does not seem to understand is that opportunities for economic gain is generally a product (even a byproduct) of freedom.

Yuri's problem with corruption and repression has been that they can be bad for business. Yuri is happy even with corruption and repression, provided there is continuing economic gain for his friends who can "travel and have businesses."the oil dollars in Russia are not going for Jihad, which should be already an accomplishment.Oh, gee, thanks.
Instead of bashing – you should support Russia.You must be a bit confused. Let me clarify something for you. I am an AMERICAN. I support the national security interests of the United States. I also happen to believe that the spread of freedom around the world is good for both the U.S. and the rest of the world.

When I criticize the Putin government for activities like repression and aiding the Iranian nuclear ambition, I have those two motives in mind.

You are a Russian national, and as such are free to "support Russia" and be an apologist for Putin's repression. I would expect you to do such.

What is impertinent for you to do is to tell me to support Russia while basking in the freedom of MY country, using the blog of Discovery Institute, one of the goals of which is a vigorous promotion of American national security.

James J. Na
"Aeroflot to purchase Airbus instead of Boeing for political reasons (as a payback for VP Cheney's remark), that is state interference on a business activity."

IN a business activity, not ON a business activity. Anyway, like most European airlines, Aeroflot is partially state-owned and is instrument of national policy. Russia may become a shareholder in Airbus, hence it makes all the sense to buy Airbus machines here in Europe than to purchase boeings from Russia's (and humanity's) enemy. Airbus makes better aicraft and their planes are made by human beings for other human beings. I personally avoid airlines which operate any US-made aicraft (and boycott all US products) and if the rest of humanity does the same, we'd see some changes for the better. Whether you support Putin and Russia or not is as irrelevant. Finally, as American, you are not qualified to talk about freedom for you have no idea what this substance is.

First you’ve got a fake American patriot (James J. Na); then there is this supposedly Russophone Anonymous creature which for some reason thinks that repeating outrageous falsehoods equates to making a balanced argument.

“why are people still flocking to leave?” – Are they. Russia is the only country in the former Soviet Union that has positive migration balance. That even concerns Israel. More people leave Israel for Russia than vice-versa.

“Why is alcoholism still so deadly to men over 50 years? “ – Alcohol consumption has shifted from strong liquor to beer and wine, Russia fell down on that global drinking scale and is now 19th by absolute per capita consumption in the world.

Aeroflot is formerly the national career, it is still in many respect the nation’s flag career, and its procurement policies must reflect national interests. Unlike most US airlines, Aeroflot is consistently profitable. While private airlines in Russia can buy anything they want, they have to make decisions which would be supported by their customers (i.e. their decisions should make business sense). Additionally business bears certain responsibilities toward society at large, so purchase decisions must be ethnical or perceived as ethnical. I have to fly frequently between Paris to St. Petersburg and when regional Russian Pulkovo Airlines leased old Air Lingus 737 jets I switched to Air France, SAS and Aeroflot because I would not fly aboard US made aircraft. I make sure that my company does not buy American products and I don’t purchase any products made by US companies or by subsidiaries of US companies. If Pulkovo Airlines were aware that they would lose even 1% of their passengers, they would have chosen another aircraft type. Aeroflot made a sound business decision, they will buy airplanes from friendly nation or nations, from a consortium in which Russia may soon participate as shareholder; they bought a better airplane and are not going to repulse public which avoids US products for one reason or the other (like unwillingness to subsidize the ongoing enslavement of Iraqi people though tax dollars the US corporation and its scummy employees will pay over to the criminal Washington regime).

“freedom is not traveling, nor is it having companies”
Freedom is exactly about being able to travel and about being able to make money and drink beer freely and freedom is certainly not about talking about freedom in propagandist cliches.

“,The USA and its officials should support democracy. (we may not do it well, but 1991 would not have happened with out the good old flawed USA.) “,

The USA is not a democracy, has never been a democracy and is not qualified to lecture about it.
Democracy is not a commodity like soy beans that can be exported at will.

Anyway, like most European airlines, Aeroflot is partially state-owned and is instrument of national policy.If that is not state interference on business, I don't know what is.
Airbus makes better aicraft and their planes are made by human beings for other human beings.That's funny, because Airbus aircraft have computer software override human control. In contrast, on Boeing aircraft, the pilot has the "final say."

As a pilot friend told me once, "Airbus is great for third-world airlines with poorly trained pilots. But well-trained first-world pilots usually prefer Boeing."

Russia's (and humanity's) enemy.So the U.S. is "humanity's enemy," eh? I think your remark speaks for itself.

Finally, as American, you are not qualified to talk about freedom for you have no idea what this substance is.I wasn't always an American. I immigrated here, you see. I certainly know, firsthand, what absence of freedom is like.

But doesn't stop you from spouting ranting anti-American idiocy, does it?

I make sure that my company does not buy American products and I don’t purchase any products made by US companies or by subsidiaries of US companies.And, yet, you are posting on an American-based blog, hosted on an American-run server, paid for by an organization that promotes vigorous American national security... in English!

I love it.
Freedom is exactly about being able to travel and about being able to make money and drink beer freely and freedom is certainly not about talking about freedom in propagandist cliches.As much as I love to travel, make money and drink alcohol, I take my ability to speak freely far more seriously than the former.

But I guess I know nothing of freedom since I am an American.

Kommersant is reporting that any possible purchase by Aeroflot of Airbus or Boeing aircraft is not likely to happen.

http://www.kommersant.com/page.asp?idr=529&id=680395

So, the majority shareholder of Aeroflot (the Russian Government) is in dispute with the management of Aeroflot.

Now the issue is the “supporting the domestic aviation industry”, which is being consolidated under government control as the United Aircraft Corporation.

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20060606/49132694.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev

Maybe Putin and his government ministers know best how to do all of this:
Create a world class Airline to compete with the likes of Lufthansa, British Airways, KLM and Delta.
Create and a world class aircraft manufacturer to compete with Boeing and Airbus.

Any guess on how it shall go?

Ahh the wonders of government control!
RIA Novosti is reporting
Aeroflot may split $3 billion order between Boeing and Airbus
http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20060614/49509977.html

“With a new A-350 program, the completion time for the aircraft may be delayed by over a year. Aeroflot needs at least two new planes by 2010, but it cannot place its whole order with Boeing because of the Kremlin's official position, the source said. Meanwhile, the government civil servant said the relevant ministries are inclined to choose Boeing.”

Oops! In April Boeing had production slots for Aeroflot in 2010. Not so any longer. Boeing 787 slots are filled through 2011.
Oops! Airbus’ last attempt at producing a new airframe, the A380, has already been delayed by more than a year. Think Airbus will do better on the A350 while it struggles to fix the A380?

Does anybody but the Kremlin believe Aeroflot can get a good deal on 2 or 3 airplanes?
Well, the world’s most valuable airline company, SouthWest does not. They buy in volumes of 70+. What about the world’s second most valuable airline, Singapore International Airlines? No. They just purchased 20+ Boeing 787s (and took the slots Aeroflot wanted and needs for 2011)

“In breaking up the contract, Aeroflot would offer an ideal compromise both to government officials, and to suppliers.“

Well, of course the suppliers, Airbus and Boeing, shall be happy. :-)
They will have less need to offer a lower price for volume discounts. Add to this fact the fact that the Kremlin’s policy is rapidly putting Aeroflot in to a desperate need situation, and the suppliers have even less reason to bargain.

And the Aeroflot customers? No need to worry. Probably the Kremlin shall decree that Russians can only fly Aeroflot in and out of Russia, ensuring Aeroflot still has customers!

And the idiot Cheney, and his puppet Bush? Are they suffering from the Kremlin asymmetric response to the comments? Unfortunately not. But only a navel gazing KGB agent could think they would.

Ahh the wonders of government control!

(And we shall not discuss the steady decrease in production by the Russian government controlled oil industry.)

Rather amusing discussion. Some people on this blog think that if they are using SAT 2 vocabulary their Ann Coulter inspired opinions seem to be more reasonable.

“Russia is not more free today than it was 10 years ago”
Mr. Anonymous, are you serious? If not, then I should praise you for the idea of adding jokes to this dry political discussion. There goes another one!

“Yeltsin did not fail in 1991.”

Do you write your own material? Hilarious.

But the quote of the day still goes to James : ”…while basking in the freedom of MY country, using the blog of Discovery Institute, one of the goals of which is a vigorous promotion of American national security“ after this rhetoric Mr. O’Reilly can retire and move to Comedy Central, his job is done.

It turns out that everything was a fault of 60-year-old grannies who failed to embrace the freedom of capitalism. Yeltzin was doing the right thing but all these stupid people failed. Snap.

Governments are choosing different levels of interference based on the national interests. We all remember what happened in US before the government intervened in 20’s – early 30’s. The statement that “freedom is when government doesn’t intervene” is absurd or utopic at best.

Freedom, just like wealth is always relative- the more the better, but not all at once, it can spoil.

China is GRADUALLY loosening up the strings and look where it is now… no need to say where it is going to be in 40 years.

For all of you smart boys on this forum, just want to remind you, that US is a Republic and not a Democracy. Politics 101

Update:

Missed Boeing deal said to cost Aeroflot dear
http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?view=CN&storyID=2006-11-14T114936Z_01_L14355976_RTRIDST_0_AIRLINES-AEROFLOT-LOSSES.XML&rpc=66&type=qcna

"MOSCOW, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Russian flagship carrier Aeroflot will run into huge losses after missing a deadline in an interim agreement with Boeing on delivery of its 22 long-haul jets, a major Aeroflot shareholder warned on Tuesday.

Aeroflot needs modern, more cost-effective airplanes to upgrade its ageing fleet of mostly Russian-made planes and maintain its big network of long-range flights.

Russia's National Reserve Corporation (NRC), which is Aeroflot's largest private investor with a 30-percent stake, had agreed with Boeing it would get a discount of $10 million to $15 million for each of its 22 B-787 "Dreamliner" jets.

"The state has practically left the national airline with no modern long-haul planes," NRC head Alexander Lebedev told a conference.

"There is no replacement for them. Losses from that decision will run into hundreds of millions of dollars."

If the state, holding 51 percent in Aeroflot, had issued a directive by Nov. 1 to go ahead with the deal to buy the planes -- estimated at up to $3 billion -- Aeroflot would have received the first of the 22 jets in 2010.

Now senior Aeroflot officials say that the delivery of new Boeing planes should not be expected before 2014.

NRC had stepped in to buy 22 long-range Boeing planes on behalf of Aeroflot to avert the collapse of the $3 billion deal.

Aeroflot's board, lacking political backing, had repeatedly failed to decide between Boeing's pitch for its Dreamliner and a rival offer from European plane maker Airbus."

ah the genius of government run companies (a.k.a. national champions)

Update: December 11, 2006

Well, now the minority (30%) shareholder is going to sue "Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov for delaying decision on the airline’s Boeing purchase."

http://www.mosnews.com/money/2006/12/11/lebedevaeroflot.shtml

I think, Aeroflot can go with Airbus. Tomorrow if US places sanctions on Boeing, then Russia definitely will be in very big trouble for its maintenance. Everyone knows US has history of placing sanctions on Russian companies having cooperation with US companies. It is really questionable why Russian civilian aircraft industry did not come up with a good aeroplane competing with Boeing / Airbus for the past 15 years. I think Russian government is not focused on domestic aviation industry as they focus on military developments.

i hope aeroflot purchases the boeing, its a really good company

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Russia Blog presents up-to-date news, facts and commentary on the state of events in Russia and the former Soviet Union. The blog was created and is managed by Yuri Mamchur, Director of Discovery Institute's Real Russia Project, Executive Director of the World Russia Forum, and a Vanderbilt University MBA graduate.


 






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