Foreign Minister Lavrov with Secretary of State Rice today
RIA Novosti reports today that "U.S. President George W. Bush has taken under his personal control the completion of Russia-U.S. talks on the former's accession to the WTO, the Russian foreign minister said Tuesday." Without getting too much into the nitty gritty of what's happening in foreign policy circles in D.C., it seems Bush is sticking with his first term agenda of cementing closer relations with China's most important neighbors, Russia and India. While the U.S. is much closer to a full alliance with India than it is with Russia, Bush clearly has his eye on the big picture that will persist long after he has left the White House.
Clearly what is happening behind close doors with U.S.-Russia talks is far more important than any public sparring between Dr. Rice and Foreign Minister Lavrov. If China can be admitted to the WTO, why not Russia? It isn't as if software and music piracy is less of a problem in Shanghai than in St. Petersburg, and there is unquestionably more freedom of dissent in Russia today than in China. Even if they wanted to, the Russian authorities could not afford to buy all the tech support they need to monitor Internet dissenters like their Chinese counterparts.
The U.S. needs all the new allies it can find in the war on terrorism. A weaker Russia poses more dangers to American interests than a strong Russia capable of defending itself from our common enemies. This is the premise underlying our posts on U.S.-Russia relations.
UPDATE: George Friedman of Austin, TX's Strategic Forecasting Inc. (better known as Stratfor) sees an emerging U.S.-Indo-Russian "axis" to check China's rising power.
While I think the Indo-American alliance is definitely here, it is premature to speak of an alliance between the U.S. and Russia. While the two countries have common terrorist enemies and common strategic interests (especially in developing energy resources outside the Middle East) Russia is still weak and will need many years of good governance and cultural revival to become a strong partner to the U.S.
Comments
I agree that a weaker Russia poses a greater threat that a strong Russia. I hope the US and Russia can develop mustally friendly relations, including successful business exchanges.
Posted by: Tanya | March 7, 2006 11:10 PM
He refers to an axis, but it clearly doesn't mean anything like an alliance when you get into his analysis - more like promoting India as a naval power happens to mesh with each country's agenda in its own way.
A poor choice of words by STRATFOR, but an interesting observation.
Posted by: Joe Katzman | April 3, 2006 5:04 PM
China is allowed in the WTO because China was willing to open it's markets (particularly in the case of financial services) in a way Russia is not. China's companies pay market rates for energy, Russia's do not (a defacto export subsidy).
Russia, quite frankly, is barely a market economy, the banking system is structurally flawed and domestic banks would fail enmass if exposed to competition (foreign owned Russian banks are still Russian banks not foreign entities), it would also expose some of the major structural weaknesses of the Russian economy that are obscured by present arrangements. There are also other more minor issues in agriculture etc. I hope this helps your understanding. I am not Russia bashing (my mother would never forgive me) just being realistic.
I support Russia's accession to the WTO, when Russia is ready but currently she clearly is not. A period of transition similar to that which was given to China would be acceptable, however it is currently not acceptable to Russia.
Posted by: James Kaushnyan | May 1, 2006 2:54 PM