Radek Sikorski (who I met at the American Enterprise Institute briefly after he moderated a a 2003 debate between Niall Ferguson and Robert Kagan) is in the news again. Sikorski, who is married to the Washington Post reporter Anne Applebaum, is back in government as Defense Minister for the newly elected Law and Justice conservative coalition. Mr. Sikorski's "neocon" credentials from AEI have drawn considerable comment in European political journals, and contributed to speculation that he is Warsaw's go-to-guy for dealing with Washington.
Today's International Herald Tribune covered a press conference at which Mr. Sikorski described declassified Warsaw Pact archives from 1979 - a time when Poland was growing restless under Soviet domination and a Polish Pope was being elected in the Vatican. The IHT implies that the conservative government is sincere about wanting to tell the whole truth about the Communist past, but that the timing might be a slap at Russia for freezing Poland and the the rest of the European Union out of recent negotiations between Moscow and Berlin over a new gas pipeline under the Baltic.
It's no secret that there has been centuries of animosity between the largely Catholic Poles and the Eastern Orthodox Russians, or that the territory Poland lost to the Hitler-Stalin Pact which Russia kept after WWII is still a sore subject for Poles of the older generation. Marian Tupy, a Slovak scholar at D.C.'s Cato Institute once told me the joke, "If Poland is invaded both by the Germans and Russians, who do you fight first? The Germans, of course - business before pleasure." Dripping gasoline on simmering old feuds, Russians and Ukrainians tend to be subjected to bigotry and stereotyping as criminals in Poland. During my trip to Poland in the late summer 2003, Ukrainian prostitutes were a common site along the highway between Warsaw and Krakow.
But most of the unfinished business between the two countries is just business. The Law and Justice government has promised better relations with Germany and Russia, with the natural hope that this will lead to greater trade across Poland's borders with both neighbors. Unfortunately for everyone, while Russia's oil and gas sector is booming, demand is slack in Western Europe outside the British Isles, with higher worldwide gas prices largely driven by demand from the U.S. and Asia and instability in the Middle East and West Africa. Poland also had hoped for a pipeline from the Caspian Sea oilfields thru Ukraine to terminate at expanded Polish refineries near the Ukrainian border. What connection this might have with the Krasniewski government's enthusiasm for the Orange Revolution, I will leave to our informed readers to comment/speculate, but in my opinion it was a natural turn given Poland's pro-U.S., pro-Western overall orientation.
At the risk of sounding like I am engaging in German-bashing, Germany's own historic motives for a Baltic pipeline might have something to do with Kaliningrad, the enclave formerly known as East Prussia. Though the borders are set in the new EU some older Germans would like to invest in the revitalization of regions that formerly belonged to Germany. The Polish mention of old chemical arsenals possibly decomposing at the bottom of the Baltic posing a threat to the environmental safety of the pipeline (the two likely have little to do with eachother) is another veiled dig at the old foe.
Clearly in the long term, as with the ridiculous dispute between Russia and Georgia, Warsaw and Moscow need each other. Poland needs Russian raw materials and Russia needs Polish and Western capital. But Poles continue to be wary of what they see as a either a dominating neighbor (hence the calls for U.S. bases to move to Poland from Germany). Perhaps the Poles should be more concerned, like Poland's best friend the U.S., about Russia's weaknesses rather than strengths. The biggest long term threat to Poland's national security and prosperity is not terrorism or aggression, ironically enough, but the demographic anemia of ancient foes Germany and Russia and its own sagging birth rates.
Comments
On the German front, it's my impression that it's in Germany's strategic interest to avoid a new divide between the enlarged EU and Russia. They saw this coming years ago, and unlike their active involvement in destroying the former Yugoslavia, they realize that a 'stable' Russia is an important part of a balancing act with the potential/new members of the EU, especially as their share a common border, so in effect this policy has from the start been in the interest of the new members.
As for Poland, and to varying degrees the other new EU Member States, their behavior could be (figuratively and from their perspective) likened to an child that when the parents divorced, the 'bad' parent got custody. Now that the child is older/circumstances has changed, it has decided to spend much more time with the 'good' parent, and from mentally afar, thumbs it's nose at the 'bad' parent. They feel that they are under no obligation whatsoever to be nice about the Russians (considering the 'occupation'), eventhough on the diplomatic level it is extremely immature when members of various parliaments make inflammatory and ultimately pointless comments at Russia. While Russia and China are preparing a raft of agreements on resolving various border disputes so that they do not become a future point of friction, we have the Estonian Parliament adding reference to the 1923 border treaty with Russia in the preable to the legislation ratifying the currently agreed border! Hence, ratification has now been delayed by Russia. Utterly pointless.
Then we have the 'reopening' of various historical issues which the politicians tell us are for properly recording history, but then we have declarations on studies to find out 'how much the soviet occupation cost..' etc. etc. or take recently the hysterical reporting over the recent crash of an Su 27 in Lithuania. It's almost as if by joining the EU Russia suddenly ceases to exist on their borders (apart from when it's impossible to ignore). Apparently though, it's ok for old Lativian Nazis to parade through the capital once a year.
There was a (suprisingly) good piece by a Jan Maksymiuk on the old propaganda station RFE/RL (http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2005/8/2768A321-2A98-4671-B67C-5CB340CE37B3.html) about Polish/Byleorussian relations which amongst others, "reflects Poland's increasingly assertive drive to regain its historical influence in the east -- on the territory of the former Grand Duchy of Lithuania, that is, primarily in Belarus and Ukraine -- after Russia lost its global superpower status, while Poland secured its rear in the EU from encroachments of its another historical rival, Germany." That sums some of it up nicely!
Posted by: Aleks | December 13, 2005 9:28 AM
Interesting article. Revealing comments from Aleks. I disagree entirely with his remarks, however.
Germany has made a move by working with Russia to build this pipeline that does little to bridge a gap between Russia and the EU. In fact, what this pipeline does is exacerbate divides within the EU itself. It is a much more costly pipeline solution that gives Russia perceived greater control over its oil. It also provides oil-poor Germany direct access to Russian oil. They have redrawn the map. In the process, it has alienated nations on Russia's borders (not to say that from the Russian point-of-view, these countries were begging for alienation). It creates divides within the EU with a clear German grab for oil and inserting itself into the Russian oil market. Finally, it also creates a situation where the Russian Navy can legitimize asserting greater influence in the Baltic. In effect, the Baltic pipeline becomes part of Russia.
All of this was likely inevitable, as the nations around Mother Russia have become resentful towards being directly under her rather large and heavy thumb for so many, many years. Building a pipeline through Ukraine and Poland would not be secure and would prove a large headache for Russia in the future. In effect, it would have been a license for those nations to blackmail Russia in the future.
However, the Baltic pipeline proves to be a rather large "kukish" from Russia to its neighbors .. and from Germany to the rest of the EU. Meanwhile, Putin and Schroeder laugh all the way to the bank. The plot was brilliant, really. Is there any doubt that IF Putin doesn't finagle a 3rd term, he will be sitting at the head of Gazprom?
Posted by: W. Shedd | December 13, 2005 6:55 PM
well, it goes to show you that the Schroeder government was tired of casting every move they perceieved as in Germany's national interest as also being for the good of the entire EU. Of course, oil and gas is hardly a zero sum game as it is so often portrayed, let many pipelines bloom and see which one the marketplace favors.
For Schroeder, freezing out the Poles was just icing on the cake. And I don't think the Poles like the idea of being anyone's stepchild, in Brussels or Berlin, they're done with that - see my new post with an update on the same issue.
Posted by: Charles Ganske | December 14, 2005 3:57 PM