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The Kremlin may well want to encourage speculation as to whether President Medvedev was truly instructing Prime Minister Putin on making state enterprises "comptetitve", but it is wholly unlikely that the two would do anything that wasn't pre-arranged between them. If it were otherwise, a political rupture would be underway, with wide repercussions, and nothing indicates such a thing now. (Of course, human nature being what it is, no one likes to take direction too long from even the most illustrious former boss.)
The follow-up to the President's speech Friday does make it seem, in any case, that Mr. Medvedev is serious and wants to proceed with economic change. (See also here.)
Government-run enterprises are famously less efficient than private ones. Corruption is more likely, too. So, having taken possession of the "commanding heights" of the economy away from Yeltsin era oligarchs, the Putin/Medvedev team (or the Medvedev/Putin team, as you will) may now be ready to privatize again on a broader basis--and with fresh capital from abroad.
At least one critic, economist Vladislav Inozemtsev, thinks Medvedev's words are "inspiring", but "not realistic.".
"The problem," he says, "is that most of the people listening to the speech in the Kremlin’s St. George Hall on Thursday--especially those who sat in the first row--are the very ones who have gained the most from the raw materials-based economy and imperfect democracy that Medvedev criticized so harshly. How will Medvedev possibly be able to overcome the powerful clan in the government and Kremlin that is most interested in continuing the anti-modernization status quo?"
Two trends of Russian government policy seem to be shifting, as witnessed by President Medvedev's major address today in Moscow. The first is the tendency in recent years for government to punish those individuals and companies deemed guilty of economic misbehavior. Now, it seems, the Kremlin is taking a more free market approach.
In foreign policy--connected to business, as well--the Kremlin seems eager once again to bring foreign capital back into the country, and to protect it. Russian leadership also seems to be warming a bit to the U.S., and cooling to Iran.
At least that is the interpretation many are putting on the fairly general statements in the Medvedev speech. See the following report from Stratfor:
Thursday, November 12, 2009
A Speech, the Russian Economy and U.S. Relations
"AS RUSSIAN PRESIDENT DMITRI MEDVEDEV was preparing to make his second State of the State address on Thursday, some major shifts in Russian domestic and foreign policy appeared to be taking place. Those shifts seemed destined to affect not only the speech, but Russia as a whole."
Continue reading "Medvedev Signals Kremlin Policy Shift" »
In the past two decades, the world has witnessed yet another historical opportunity missed: the fall of the Berlin Wall has not led to a logical conclusion – Russia’s full economic, political and even military integration with Europe and the West in general. In the recent past, Russia’s Westernizers’ centuries-old dream of joining Europe was nearly within reach, but then it faded again, to wait for another miracle.
In the 19th century that goal was closer than ever, as Europe and Russia were strongly linked within a unified cultural and economic space despite their religious differences and many political upheavals. Even Fedor Dostoyevsky, generally highly critical of the West, noted that Russia needed Europe, and that Europe was Russia’s second Fatherland.
The Bolshevik coup of October 1917 destroyed the natural process of Russia drifting toward Europe, but the end of the bloody communist experiment should have removed the remaining barriers for that process. However, this has not happened so far. Now, will it take place, at long last? Will Russia even try to overcome the West’s rejection as the balance of world power is shifting to Asia?
Continue reading "Russia's European Dreams" »
Photo Source: Associated Press
If you're looking for behind-the-scenes insight, one of the better places to find it is through reports and assessments from STRATFOR, a leader in geopolitical intelligence, analysis and research.
Yesterday, in its "Geopolitical Diary," the company's analysts took on the issue of Moscow-Tehran relations. Against a backdrop of the Iranian regime's nuclear program and its unwillingness to cooperate fully with the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency), STRATFOR suggests that Russia could be "about to shift its international role within the Iran talks."
Russia traditionally has been staunchly against sanctions on Iran. But in the last few weeks, Moscow suddenly grew quiet. During this time, U.S., U.K. and French officials have visited Russia to discuss the Iran issue. Moreover, STRATFOR sources in Moscow have stated that the West has been much more vocal in the possibilities of Western investment and cash going back into Russia, should Moscow want to be partners with the West.
The continuing effort to get a full accounting of Iran's nuclear program will not to end anytime soon. But if STRATFOR's analysis is right and Russia does shift its role, we could very well see a dramatic change in the tone and pace of the negotiations. The mullah might not like finding themselves alone. (For reference, see Edward Lozansky's post of October 26 on this topic.)
Continue reading "Courting Russia on the Iranian Nuclear Issue? " »
 On Saturday, November 7, Fedor Emelianenko proved one more time that he is the best fighter in the world by knocking out the undefeated Brett Rogers in the second round. For the first time in Russian history, the First Channel (main government TV station) showed an MMA fight, just 12 hours after CBS aired it live in America. As Fedor Emelianenko said in his post-fight interview, he was “more popular in America than in Russia;” his manager added “not anymore.” Russians prefer box to the brutal and bloody Mixed Martial Arts, but Fedor’s victory was impossible to ignore. When asked about the reasons of his victory, Fedor answered: “Millions of Russian Orthodox Christians prayed for me. It is their victory, not mine.”
Brett Rogers, a Chicago native, was the underdog of the fight in his own hometown. Fedor Emelianenko was the celebrity and the favorite of the crowd that came to see the Strikeforce-M1 fight at the Chicago's Sears Centre Arena. My personal experience watching the fight was unique, as I watched the match at a bar in Nashville, TN. Dozens of American Southerners came to a local establishment to support… the Russian! Could one imagine just 20 years ago that a Southern crowd would be cheering to the images of a Russian beating the crap out of an American. Rocky, indeed, is an outdated material. Now, one can only hope that politicians in Moscow and Washington would catch up with the times...
 After the fight, the first people from Fedor’s camp who came out onto the mat were long-bearded Orthodox priests from Fedor’s village. Fedor wrapped himself in a Russian flag and put a giant wooden cross on his neck. My American bartender poured me a free drink to celebrate Fedor’s victory and asked where Fedor was from. I said “from the Russian version of East Tennessee.” The fable-like Russian fighter is a loving father, strong believer, and the most dangerous heavyweight fighter in world history.
Read the ESPN coverage of the fight in the extended post.
Continue reading "Fedor Emelianenko Knocks Out the Undefeated Brett Rogers, Thanks Russian Orthodox for Their Prayers" »
 The murder of Novaya Gazeta’s journalist Anastasiya Baburova and attorney Stanislav Markelov apparently has has been solved. The reputed killers were found and arrested; they are members of the RNU (Russian Nationalistic Union) known in Russia as RNE. While Western media insinuated that the murder that took place on January 19, 2009 was a Russian government attack on the journalists, Muscovites who witnessed the event could tell you exactly the opposite story. The true story less exciting, but and more troubling, than the one about Putin eating liberal journalists for breakfast...
The nationalists assassinated attorney Markelov for his work in defending other victims of nationalistic attacks. When the crime took place in downtown Moscow, Anastasiya Baburova was interviewing the lawyer. She drew attention to the crime scene and started chasing the killers; so they shot her as well. One of the saddest part of this story is the complete misunderstanding of the Russia’s most troubling problem: the Western press continues to paint a portrait of a authoritarian Medvedev/Putin tandem and suggesting that there is a liberal alternative. The truth is, whether one likes Medvedev and Putin or not, the only other viable alternative to their rule--and a quite popular one--is nationalistic fascism. We, at Russia Blog, extend our sympathies to the families of Stanislav and Anastasiya.
Russia is once again outflanking America in the space race -- the space tourist race.
 On November 3, 1957, humans killed their first space tourist. Laika, we at Russia Blog salute you, “Bow-wow old friend, bow-wow.”
While the Russian government looks around for a spare $600 million to build their nuclear wessel by 2021 (hopefully using the Mobile Banka as their prototype), Reuters reports that an upstart Barcelona-based company, Galactic Suite, plans to use Russian rockets and a yet to be named Caribbean island to compete with Virgin Galactic and the New Mexico spaceport:
[Galactic Suite] plans to open the first hotel in space [and] says it is on target to accept its first paying guests in 2012 despite critics questioning the investment and time frame for the multi-billion dollar project. The Barcelona-based architects of The Galactic Suite Space Resort say it will cost 3 million euro ($4.4 million) for a three-night stay at the hotel, with this price including an eight-week training course on a tropical island.
Continue reading "A Kinder, Gentler Cuban Missile Crisis" »
In his recent article, Bruce Chapman—Discovery Institute’s President and former Director of the White House Census Bureau—rightly criticized the Russian government for cancelling the scheduled 2010 Census. (The census was moved to 2013). We want to believe that it was Russia Blog’s criticism that forced prime-minister Vladimir Putin to revisit the issue. The original official reason for the census cancellation was the lack of budget funds. While FSB, among many other government agencies, is using taxpayers’ money to renew its branches’ auto-fleets with brand new bullet-proof Mercedes-Benz’s S 350 L 4Matic (yes, with expensive woods, luxurious leather, hi-end stereos, and iPhone connectors; any U.S. FSB agents want to change their employer?), it was extremely hard to believe that Russian economy was doing that bad. Russia’s Census Bureau (RosStat) was despaired by the cancellation, as they had spent significant funds and effort preparing for the act.
In Russia, criticism of the census cancellation was very muffled, as most Russians sincerely don’t understand its value. Most likely, Medvedev and Putin were not afraid to reveal the information that could be compared to the one of 10 years ago; even with the global financial crisis, it is very hard to beat Russia’s humiliating conditions at the end of Yeltsin’s era. It still remains a secret what exactly moved the Kremlin to cancel the census in the first place. What Russian government most likely hadn’t realized were the potential economic consequences had census been canceled. International corporations use census results for their marketing, expansions, hiring, and other business objectives, and the corporate-oriented Kremlin must have heard that message loud and clear. The census, according to Putin, will take place in 2010, and the Russian government committed the necessary 10.5 billion rubles (360.5 million USD) to finalize the effort.
Prime ministers Vladimir Putin (Russia) and Donald Tusk (Poland)
Several recent occurrences, in conjunction with each other, have been contributing factors to the increased commentary about the history between Russia and Poland. The recent instances include: this past August's OSCE resolution on (among other things) the Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement, along with last month's 70th anniversary of World War II's beginning (on September 1, 1939), the Obama administration's scrapping of the missile defense shield program in Poland and the Czech Republic and a Polish parliament resolution stating that the World War II Soviet massacre of thousands of Poles at Katyn had genocidal traits.
Russia: Other Points of View (ROPV) features two articles on the subject of Russo-Polish history, which together, provide a more complete overview than has been generally (if not exclusively) evident in mass media. The two ROPV articles are Gordon Hahn's "NY Times Paints Problematic Portrait of Putin in Poland" (September 15) and Rodric Braithwaite's "Russia, Poland and 'History'" (September 25). Some additional points relate to the topic of what these articles discuss.
Continue reading "The Russo-Polish History Coverage and Some Related Matters " »
Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, and the rising threat of Islamic fundamentalism, not only present a clear and extreme danger, but also provide the perfect logical base for closer U.S.-Russian cooperation. Of course, it is always easier to say what should have been done afterward, but shouldn’t we at least learn some lessons from the not-so-distant past? No matter how much we despised and hated communism and the Soviet rulers, politicians with vision could have predicted the disastrous consequence of supplying the Afghan Mujahedeen, including Terrorist Number One Osama bin Laden himself, with tons of cash and the most sophisticated weaponry, like Stinger rockets.
After Jimmy Carter, along with his National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, yielded Iran to the Ayatollahs, it became pretty obvious that Islamic militancy was becoming a major threat to the West, a threat which overshadowed even the Soviet one. Anyone with basic understanding of the internal situation in Soviet Union knew that by the late 1970s - early 1980s, communism has exhausted its zeal. Not only did the Soviet intelligentsia reject its appeal, but even the highest Kremlin rulers, including members of Politburo, were privately laughing at their own speeches and slogans. Telling anecdotes and humiliating jokes about communism became major social entertainment. This, together with the sad state of the Soviet economy, should have led the White House to let communism pass into the ashes of history by way of a natural death, instead of creating a supposedly anti-Soviet Frankenstein’s monster, who has turned out to be the worst U.S. and European nightmare.
Continue reading "Is Iran pushing Russia closer to the West?" »
Western fears that Russia may use its dominance in gas production and distribution to influence political decisions in Europe are dealt another blow with word that the Azeris and Turks are making considerable progress on an alternative route.
The Russian "threat" thereby diminishes.
It is helpful when the media cover major industry conferences, for seemingly boring meetings sometimes reveal real news. That is what happened at the World Gas Conference in Buenos Aires recently, as reported by The Telegraph in England.
The confirmation of new gas supplies is cheering Americans eager to diminish the nation's reliance on foreign oil and Europeans who feared over-commitment to Russian resources.
By the same token, it is upsetting to some Russians, understandably.
"Needless to say, the Kremlin is irked. 'There's a lot of myths about shale production,' said Gazprom's Alexander Medvedev.
"If the new forecasts are accurate, Gazprom is not going to be the perennial cash cow funding Russia's great power resurgence. Russia's budget may be in structural deficit."
Regardless, this is a big story with real consequences, if true.
Logo of the Novaya Gazeta
There are signs of human rights progress in Russia. Editors of Novaya Gazeta, home to the reporter, Anna Politkovskaya, who was murdered three years ago seem to feel confident that the killers are known.
The unsolved Politkovskaya murder has bedeviled the reputation of the Kremlin on human rights issues in recent years. Many have speculated on possible government involvement in the killing. If, in fact, progress is made in locating and prosecuting the actual murderers, Russia's image for civil order will be improved accordingly
In another development, Nashi, the government-backed student group that acts as a kind of youth activism front for the Kremlin leaders, is now coming under open criticism in a potentially consequential way. Once again it is the rule of law that itself is on trial. Crucial to the outcome is the integrity and resolve of the official investigative body, Pamfilova.
Download the PDF version of the report Russian Tea Market
Summary of contents:
- Introduction
- Global Tea Market Summary
- Issues and Trends Affecting the Global Market
- Analysis of the Russian Tea Market
- Analysis of the Indian Tea Market
- Comparison of Russian and Indian Tea Markets
- Opportunities for Indian Tea Producers
Introduction
Tea is the oldest and the most widely consumed beverage in the world after water. It is estimated that there are over 2,000 different types of tea.[1] Though several varieties of tea such as green tea and herbal tea are now becoming popular, by far the most important tea to international trade is black tea. In the global tea market, China, India, Kenya, and Sri Lanka are the major producers and also play a major role as exporters of tea, while Russia, U.K., U.S., Pakistan, and Japan form the major markets for these exports. Consumer awareness of the health benefits of tea and premiumisation [2] have been the growth drivers of the tea market recently.
Continue reading "Market and Industry Report:
Russian Tea Market Research Report" »
Last week was marked by two intimately connected major events: Obama announced the scrapping of the plan to deploy Missile Defense Shield elements in Eastern Europe, and NATO Secretary General Anders Rasmussen made an arguably even more impressive speech listing three global security initiatives aimed at rapprochement with Russia. It would hardly be an overstatement to call the two events historic, for never before have a US president and a NATO secretary general made such promising and friendly moves toward Russia, and not just by word but actually by deed. NATO’s readiness for a joint US-Russian missile defense system and a serious consideration of Medvedev’s idea for a new Euro-Atlantic security architecture amounts to acknowledging Russia’s role as a major player on the European continent. This can also be regarded as an invitation to Russia to complete a military and eventually also a political and economic integration with the West.
The content of Obama’s speech came as no surprise due to leaks to the press long before the official announcement. As was to be expected, both in America and in other countries, particularly in Poland and the Czech Republic, a massive campaign to condemn this decision was launched even before the speech. Vitriolic outbursts accusing Obama, at best, of weakness, incompetence and enormous concessions to Russia, and at worst, of something amounting to the betrayal of the country’s interests, inundated the US media. It has to be said, though, that there were also numerous supporters of Obama’s decision, even among prominent republicans, such as Brent Scowcroft, former national security adviser under George Bush Sr., and many others.
Continue reading "Missile Defense Shield in Eastern Europe Kaput. Now What?" »
A developed country does not cancel its regularly scheduled census of population, especially when one is constitutionally required. So it is not a surprise that the decision of Rosstat, the Russian State Statistical Service to "postpone" the 2010 census on budgetary grounds was taken over the objection of Rosstat's highly regarded professional staff and at the behest of politicians in the Kremlin. The political leaders don't realize the seriousness of their mistake.
This may seem like a minor matter, except that it reflects high-level confusion about reality--the kind of reality a census captures. Indirectly, it damages economic prospects because it shows that public statistics cannot be accepted as reliable for planning and marketing purposes. If the Kremlin hopes that a several year delay will help it disguise negative demographic trends, it is deluded. Observers now will imagine far worse than an accurate census would show.
The decision is particularly unfortunate in light of the notorious statistical deceit that characterized the USSR. In that grim era statistics might as well have been another branch of state propaganda. Population and other numbers were so decrepit that the best analysis of the true condition of Russia demography probably came from Dr. Murray Feshbach, a brilliant analyst at the United States Census Bureau and, later, the State Department.
Continue reading "Census Cancellation is Embarrassment for Russia" »
Russia's Dmitry Medvedev, Poland's Lech Kaczynski, and America's Barack Obama
Russian authorities are happy, Czech and Polish officials feel as if they have been used and abused by the United States, and Republicans are outraged that President Obama has decided to scrap plans to build a missile defense in Eastern Europe. The stated purpose was to guard Europe against intimidation by a nuclear Iran, but Russia professed to feel threatened and encircled. Now, presumably, Russians don't feel threatened and Iranians feel liberated to move ahead with nuclear development.
But here is the real test of this decision: did the U.S. gain anything by it in terms of protection of Europe (and Israel) against Iranian nukes? The next few months will tell.
The USSR and the USA were strangely but truly united in working against nuclear proliferation for a couple of decades--the 70s and 80s. In my time as US ambassador to the UN Organizations in Vienna in the 1980s this was the one field of relations in which mutual cooperation was sincere and real. Indeed, the way in which the United States came closer to the USSR at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) after the Chernobyl nuclear accident in the Ukraine in 1986 may be cited as a key turning point in the relationship that hastened "perestroika" and the thawing of the Cold War. The Soviets realized that we really didn't want to humiliate them, but only to help them deal with a real crisis. It led to a breakthrough that extended beyond the nuclear realm.
Continue reading "Was There a Deal Behind the Missile Shield Decision?" »
Soldiers' Mothers, a human rights group in Russia, is trying to draw attention to what, in any country, would be a scandal demanding highest level attention: the seizure of conscripts' passports, the misuse of those conscripts in war and their forced re-enlistments.
Somehow, this kind of human rights issue doesn't get much attention outside Russia, and, sadly, it doesn't appear to register in high level domestic discussion inside the country. At least it is being reported and a spotlight is being shone on the corruption behind it.
Has anyone in the Kremlin thought about the possibility of a volunteer military? How effectively can an army of coerced soldiers operate in the 21st Century, especially when some are bamboozled into service?
Entrance to an IKEA store in Rostov, Russia.
As economy is sliding down, and even the construction of the Moscow City is up in the air, one would think that Russians, and Kremlin especially, would want as much foreign investment as possible. It is well-known that Russians have had highest levels of disposable income comparing to other nations, and retail has made many Western companies wealthy. Among such companies was IKEA that has three stores in Moscow alone. IKEA built factories, streamlined supply chains, employed thousands of Russians, brought its products to the nation, and has helped Kremlin to look Western more than pictures of shirtless Putin did.
Nine years after the opening of the first IKEA store in Russia, and in the midst of the worst global financial crisis, one would think Russian regions, and especially Kremlin, would want more foreign money and positive PR abroad. IKEA had originally planned to open its new 1,400,000 square feet complex in November 2007 in Samara. But a year and a half later, the store remained closed. The Samara’s store’s opening was reportedly delayed on eight separate occasions, with local officials refusing each time to supply the necessary documents. The latest objection, according to IKEA, has been that the store is insufficiently resistant to hurricanes. That’s a highly unusual requirement, in a region not previously noted for its high-power winds, reported the BusinessWeek. While its sales in Russia have been growing beyond expectation, problems seemed to have been piling up even faster; IKEA has publicly raged again against “blackmail, sabotage and pressure for bribes” from Russian officials. If Kremlin’s latest slogan have been “fight with corruption” and “attract foreign investment,” can someone help me understand if it’s really that hard to imprison the gangsters with government titles who are not only killing the foreign investment (which fell by 45% in 2009), but alsoare hurting Russia’s employment, economic development, and image abroad.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, left, listens to Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko as he visits the Sayano-Shushenskaya hydroelectric power plant in southern Siberia on Friday, Aug. 21, 2009. (AP/RIA Novosti, Alexei Druzhinin)
Watch BBC video on the power plant explosion
Chechen terrorists have claimed responsibility for blowing up the Sayano-Shushenskaya Hydroelectric Power Plant, Russia’s largest, and for the blast at a police station in Nazran. A group calling itself Riyadhus Salihiyn has announced its plans for stepping up “economic warfare” against Russia, the terrorists’ priority targets being oil and gas pipelines, power plants, and major industrial enterprises. If in the case of the Siberian electric power plant Russian officials are shrugging off these allegations as “idiotic,” the Nazran terrorist act, as well as the now almost daily terrorist attacks in Ingushetia, Dagestan, and in what seemed like a pacified Chechnya suggest that the North Caucasus situation is rapidly reaching boiling point, threatening to get out of state control.
The “Afghanization” of the Caucasus has both internal and external causes. Unemployment, corruption, blood feuds, criminal standoffs, and struggle between various local clans provide a fertile breeding ground for terrorism. All that is true, yet without serious financing and supply of weapons from abroad the scope of terrorist acts could hardly have been quite so great. That the Islamist gunmen have the backing of certain foreign agencies is not to be doubted, but to blame this on the United States, the UK and Israel, as Ingushetia President Yunusbek Yevkurov has done, is fairly short-sighted, to say the least.
Continue reading "Natural Allies: NATO, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Collective Security Treaty Organization" »
A few of the most famous Russians who ever lived
Editor's note: In this ninth part of his masters thesis, "The Misconception of Russian Authoritarianism", St. Petersburg University graduate Kevin Cyron argues that Russia has become so thoroughly integrated into the global economy that it can never return to a truly authoritarian system of government.
Click on the links to read previous installments in this series:
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
Click on the extended post to read part nine of the extended essay.
Continue reading "The Misconception of Russian Authoritarianism:
Part 9 - The Pendulum: A Model for Understanding
Political Transitions in Russia" »
Site of a downtown police precinct in Nazran, Ingushetia, where a suicide bomber detonated a truck with over 2,000 pounds of explosives at 9 am on Monday, August 17 2009.
Monday August 17, two days before the explosions in Baghdad, a suicide bomber drove a truck loaded with a ton of explosives into a local police station in Ingushetia, killing at least 25 people and injuring over 136 civilians, including women and children.
Ingushetia and Chechnya are Russian territories in the country’s south-eastern corner. Their status is comparable to the one of an American state within the U.S. The heads of the Russian “states” are traditionally called governors, mayors, heads, and presidents. Many westerners make a mistake thinking, for example, that the President of Chechnya heads his own country. Since the war in Chechnya ended, terrorists had been laying low until half a year ago. Surprisingly, only the murders of human rights activists find their way into Western news reports. However, the list of terrorist activities over the past few months has been full with murders of local judges, heads of villages and towns, armed attacks against police, and kidnappings. These events have been completely ignored by Western mass media.
Continue reading "Russia’s South Ravaged by Terrorist Attacks" »
This article was originally published in the National Review Online
Moscow River embankment on a summer night (Photo by Yuri Mamchur)
MOSCOW — German Sterligov is well known here, but unlike Roman Abramovich, Oleg Deripaska, and other publicly flamboyant Russian billionaires, he is little known abroad. Sterligov neither sails the Caribbean nor drinks in London’s Mayfair district; most of the time he lives a traditional peasant lifestyle deep in the Russian countryside with his wife and five children. In winter, their farm is accessible only by horse-drawn cart, and the nearest house is seven miles away. Sterligov’s way of life makes a strong Russian Orthodox statement and amuses Moscow’s public.
 Sterligov made his fortune in the 1990s running a large barter business. He founded a mercantile exchange where Russians traded products they were unable to buy or sell for cash. He lived the luxurious life of a billionaire and owned properties in Moscow, London, and Manhattan. In 2004, after an ill-fated bid for Russia’s presidency, Sterligov sold everything and moved to the countryside.
Continue reading "The Benefits of Bartering" »
Click here to view enlarged map
The recent signing of the Nabucco pipeline project is definitely a political rather than economic deal. Its feasibility, the probability of its actual construction and its profitability aside, the deal shows clearly that, at least for the present, those who want to see a weaker Russia prevail over those who would rather see it strong and an integral part of the West. It is also obvious that without heavy Washington lobbying the Nabucco pipeline would never take off. Since there is practically no economic interest for the U.S. in it, Washington politics make the direction of the much advertised "reset" quite uncertain.
In the last 20 years since the collapse of communism every U.S. president has kept repeating that it is in American interests to see Russia as a strong, democratic, and prosperous nation. But actions rarely suit the words. Washington needs, and often gets, Moscow’s cooperation on major security issues, but then it turns around and does its damnedest not only to prevent “non-democratic” and “authoritarian” Moscow from becoming an energy superpower, but to make sure that it gets as little cash as possible -- by diverting this cash to former Soviet republics where democracy is so rudimentary as to be barely discernible, while Oriental despotism, sometimes hereditary, is very much in evidence. So much for the hugely advertised U.S. democracy promotion mission.
Continue reading "Pipeline to Nowhere" »
It does not seem to excite Russians terribly much, and it is hardly noticed in the U.S. and Europe, but Russia's GDP just dropped 10.9 percent in the second quarter. That comes after a 9.8 percent drop in the first quarter. This is grim.
The go-go economies of Moscow and St. Petersburg also seem to be deteriorating. Restaurants see a 20 percent drop in business. Can the madcap nightclub life of Moscow be far behind?
President Medvedev is calling for investigation of state-owned enterprises, thought to be hubs of inefficiency, waste and corruption. A new restructuring may be in order in the long run. In the short term, should we expect firings?
Regardless, Russia seems to be suffering a recession that may be wider and deeper than that which afflicts America. It also may last longer.
by Dr. Ildar Ablayev
Chapter 1 of Dr. Ablayev’s book “Regional Gold Markets in Russia’s Economy”, from which this piece is excerpted, deals with how Russia emerged from a command, non-market economy to its current status where the integration of the market into the authoritarian model of Russian governance is causing what he calls a “vertical layering” of the market. As a result, a unique Russian multi-level market system has been created.
Click on the extended post to read more.
Continue reading "National Particularities of Russia's Market" »
The pro-Israeli Debka file is reporting the disturbing assertion that the Russian intelligence agency, FSB, was instrumental in rolling up an Israeli spy ring within the Hezbollah-controlled regions of Lebanon.
If the Debka story is not true, Moscow should shed some light on the claims. Hezbollah is a terrorist group that is consistently at odds with the more peaceable elements in Lebanon. Syria is supportive of Hezbollah and Russia may be eager to retain ties with the Assad regime. But to this extent?
Visit the extended post to read the Debka report in full:
Continue reading "FSB Involvement in Lebanon?" »
Map of region Source: BBC
As the first anniversary of the brief war in South Ossetia approaches, it appears what peace does exist continues to be set against a backdrop of tension and accusation.
According to the New York Times, over the weekend South Ossetia authorities "reported two rounds of mortar fire coming from Georgian-controlled territory." Meanwhile, according to the BBC, Georgia is accusing Russia of "moving border posts along the boundary between Georgia and...South Ossetia." The European Union and its monitoring group, the EU Monitoring Mission in Georgia isn't confirming either "claim," according to the BBC.
The anniversary of last year's conflict is August 7, so there are a few more days for clarity to develop.
Click here to read the official statement by the presidents of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. It, clearly, reflects their vision of the last year's conflict.
Journalist Anna Politkovskaya, killed in 2006 in what appeared to be a contract murder.
Political killings have declined in recent years in Russia, but still tend to blot Russia's image in the filed of human rights. Several recent contract murders have been tied to Chechnyan politics, where complex rivalries have been taken to Moscow in a violent manner.
Now comes the story of an apparent murder attempt that was foiled by police. A plausible suspect seems to be in hand. If so, this gives the Russian government a chance to show its determination to strike back at terror-tactics, regardless of their source.
I am skeptical of assertions that the Kremlin itself has backed such political terror tactics. But now--with a live suspect in police hands--is the time and the chance for the national government as well as the police to demonstrate their true resolve. It also is time for the international community to pay more attention to these matters.
If there is no domestic constituency that is offended, a gaffe is not treated as a gaffe. But Vice President Joe Biden's snarky remarks about Russia fall into the gaffe category anyhow. What is the point?
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